Analysts: the effect of the upcoming Verizon iPhone for Big Red, AT&T, Android and Apple

Analysts: the effect of the upcoming Verizon iPhone for Big Red, AT&T, Android and Apple
Everything points to the fact that the long-rumoured Verizon-branded Apple iPhone is set to be announced tomorrow. And while this is not official yet, analysts have started to do their thing, i.e. make predictions what this will mean for AT&T, Verizon, Android and Apple.

UBS AG analyst John Hodulik says that Verizon may sell as many as 13 million iPhones this year, mainly to its existing customers, which is expected to bring Apple additional $5.2 billion in sales. On the other hand, AT&T is projected to sell more than 14 million iPhones in 2011.

Hodulik says:

"It’s going to be the dominant device at Verizon as soon as it’s launched, and, I think, cannibalize the other devices they sell."

The largest US carrier has been a stronghold for Android-powered handsets and this has helped the green robot platform to move in second place (only after RIM) in the total subscribers table in the US. No doubt, this is bound to change with the imminent release of the Verizon iPhone, and, fittingly, CES has seen the announcement of some AT&T-bound Android-running heavyweights, like the Motorola ATRIX 4G, the Samsung Infuse 4G and the HTC Inspire 4G.

The most important question in this story seems to be whether Verizon's network will manage the iPhone load. In fact, the iPhone's official announcement for the largest US carrier is yet to happen, but AT&T has already released the "slow lane" remark, claiming that Verizon's 3G network can't manage the iPhone's fast speeds.

It is claimed that Verizon is quite confident in its network capabilities, and believes it will face no problems with the extra data demand that the iPhone is set to bring. In the words of Ivan Seidenberg, CEO of Verizon:

"Whether they are iPhones or Droids, they are smartphones. Regardless of the mix, we are prepared to carry more data."

There is no doubt that this claim is to be tested soon, since it's reported that Big Red plans to offer unlimited data plans for the iPhone.

Time for your opinion - what major shifts are to come with the expected unveiling of the Verizon iPhone tomorrow?

source: BusinessWeek and WSJ

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19 Comments

1. Gawain

Posts: 441; Member since: Apr 15, 2010

All these analysts...how much work does it take to say that an iPhone on VZW will be a success? What they should be examining carefully is the affect this will have on Sprint and T-Mobile (even other regional players like US Cellular or CellularSouth, even MetroPCS). That is the pool of users they should be looking at. There were certainly groups of subscribers on each that did not want an iPhone *because* of AT&T and the perceptions of it's network. Those users have a different choice to make if this finally becomes a reality. The ripples of this roll-out go further in some ways.

2. Droid_X_Doug

Posts: 5993; Member since: Dec 22, 2010

What happened to all of the AT&T customers who were fed up with AT&T service who were waiting for a Verizon iPhone? Did they become 'satisfied' with AT&T all of a sudden?

5. bucky

Posts: 3791; Member since: Sep 30, 2009

The problem was most likely heavily overhyped. Just like the reception issue with the iphone 4.

12. cellgeek82

Posts: 518; Member since: Dec 20, 2009

I left Verizon for AT&T because AT&T works better here and has a better 3G experience. I have no complaints or dropped calls. My iPhone works great too. AT&T has a big name and the most popular smartphone. When one little glitch happens on their network the media sinks their fangs into the issue. AT&T doesn't have that many problems. No network is perfect. Matter of fact I had problems with dropped calls and dropped data connections with Verizon. Once Verizon get the iPhone (if its true) the media will be concentrating on Verizon, just waiting for them to screw up. You wait and see.

13. TKFox007

Posts: 303; Member since: Nov 02, 2010

Most polls that I've seen, people are staying with AT&T, the people who are going to leave are a small portion. AT&T isn't going to lose many customers. It's really a concept of 10 people who are not satisfied talk, while 100 who are satisfied don't talk.

17. Whateverman

Posts: 3295; Member since: May 17, 2009

Last I read, it was about 23% of iPhone owners that would switch. Losing almost a quarter of their iPhone users would be a huge loss for ATT! And with the $69.99 plan w/ unlimited data and text, I don't see any reason why a few of those "happy" ATT customers wouldn't at least considering switching also.

3. Socalvenom unregistered

the way that I see it is , for five years AT&T has milked their customers with the iphone and disregarded everyone else and by that I mean the other phone providers like LG,Samsung,Nokia so forth and so on but now that their number one product is leaving, they are trying to come over to android and I'm one hundred percent sure that once Verizon starts selling iphones AT&T will try to bash on Verizons speeds and trust me they will try very hard to exploit any defect they can find on the iphone or anyother issue with Verizon cause there will always be a hater in the mist

4. LionStone

Posts: 1048; Member since: Dec 10, 2010

iPhone..."dominant device at Verizon as soon as its launched,..." I don't think so...shew! I should be an analyst... ;)

6. Tagon42

Posts: 9; Member since: Oct 24, 2009

We have seen plenty of reports showing that Android users use more data then our iOS counterparts. The fact that Verizon who has lots of great Android devices have seen no affect for the increase in data just tells me that Verizon will be fine. As to it becoming the dominate device on Verizon maybe at first but the way Google and Apple have been leap frogging each other means that when the next generation of Android comes out it will become the dominant and back and forth. I imagine that when it is first released we will see a bunch of people switch and upgrade, but when the next Android device is released it will happen again. Good news for the consumer is the fact that the tech is getting better and cheaper all the time.

7. freemarketeer

Posts: 28; Member since: Jun 05, 2010

My take on the situation is this: With regards to the impact on ATT of the iPhone going to VZW, I think that the analysts are underestimating the impact over the course of the year. The reason I say this is that most of the analysts do not take into account that it won't just be current ATT iPhone users that switch but their families as well (think of how many parents are on ATT because they want the iPhone but who also have their kids with them too). It is also important to take into account not just consumers but businesses that are looking to switch as well, where dropped calls and coverage are major factors in the buying decision. I would estimate a 3+ million net add Q1 for VZW and a sub 1 million add quarter for ATT. As for the impact on Android, I think that this move will definitely slow down its growth in the short term however I believe that long term Android will be the dominant mobile platform. The mobile landscape will end up looking like the PC landscape does now with Windows vs. Mac only it will be Android vs. iOS, with Android being the dominant player due to the number of equipment options and distribution points.

18. Whateverman

Posts: 3295; Member since: May 17, 2009

Well said! +1

8. Wesly Mathurin unregistered

Well,I think that it was about time that the now network start selling the best phone in the world or the phone of the last decade. How ever,I think that ATT can get back to the swing of things by improving their network spectrum,giving back unlimited data,getting 4G as soon as possible and last focus on improving customer service and having some of top android phone.

9. ATT Call Center unregistered

Anyone with an iPhone 4 with ATT probably is going to still be in a contract for atleast another 6 months, so that's going to keep most people with an iPhone on ATT. As well as the fact that ATT will be getting the newest iPhone when it becomes available. If Verizon does not receive the newest model of iPhone right away, customers will stay with ATT. As for the Unlimited Data plans that Verizon offers and the capped data plans of ATT, I have to say that it's not that big of a deal. I open thousands of iPhone accounts month to month and most people do not even use over 2GB of data per month. Only the few and way far apart go over this. In a 6 month period, i've seen 3 people using over the 2GB allotment. Thus being that while in Wi-Fi data isn't taken from your usage. Verizon getting the iPhone should not take away many current ATT iPhone users, but possibly those who don't like the ATT service that are interested in the iPhone. Business for both cellular powerhouses is definately going to improve. Both companies don't have to worry about anything towards loss of customers because they are doing so well. Speed wise, the 3G network for Verizon and ATT, no one is truthfully going to care about that. But when a new 4G iPhone hits ATT you are going to see quite the difference in speeds, especially if Verizon doesn't get an LTE iPhone right away. As for the Android vs. iPhone for either carrier, I would have to say Android will be number one. Mostly due to the fact that there are multiple manufactures making different Android devices. Android simply comes in more shapes, sizes, and prices whereas your stuck with one Apple iPhone design scheme per model whether it be 3GS, 4, or whatever is to come. Now we have the upcomming Android devices for both companies, all this year with 4G and LTE enabled. Both companies are getting very very nice devices. Verizon comming up with HTC Thunderbolt, LG Revolution, and Motorola BIONIC. All are going to be LTE enabled 4.3" smartphones. When ATT is going to be getting the Samsung Infuse, Motorola ATRIX, and HTC Inspire. With these upcomming line-ups for both ATT and Verizon, I must say that Android will overpower Apples iPhone all year long, and I don't believe it will change at all over the course of time, until something better comes out

10. Sam from VZW unregistered

Let's be honest and not try and look at it too much in depth... Big picture: if, almost when, Verizon gets the Iphone not only will they keep more and more customers but they will also gain customers via ATT. Simple as that. No facts are really needed here, Verizon has the most consistent network and EVERYONE and their grandmother wants an Iphone.

19. archangel9

Posts: 233; Member since: Feb 07, 2010

not to be rude or anything ,but that sounds a lil bit egotistic?!!

20. motrfalcon unregistered

I don't want an iphone. Ill take my droid x or anyother android over any iphone everytime.

11. stjcripes

Posts: 27; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

Does anyone know if tomorrow's announcement will be webcast(ed?)?

14. TKFox007

Posts: 303; Member since: Nov 02, 2010

The only reason why Android has the lead over Apple is due to the fact that every carrier has at least 3 Android devices. So that's about 12 Androids to 1 iPhone and even when the iPhone comes to Verizon, that's 12 Androids to 2 iPhones. I plan on upgrading from my Droid 1 to an iPhone when it hits Verizon as the iPhone has better media management than Android devices and there's plenty of other people planning on doing the same thing. And there's people who are going from AT&T to Verizon when it happens. iPhone sales are going to skyrocket when it hits Verizon, so iOS may surpass Android or tie with it since it'll be on two carriers.

16. mr. droid

Posts: 278; Member since: Aug 21, 2010

here is the thing, first of all, with verizon having BIG time android phones already, by adding an iPhone it will cause at&t and verizon to become even bigger and will almost be the demise of companies like t-mobile and sprint. not only that, but it will also slash the numbers of the windows and blackberry phones sold. the only other phones that will sell are the simple feature phones and thats only because of pre-paid sales and those that cant afford the data plan and the like. just my speculation, but thats because look at the sales, verizon reports that 8 out of ten phone sales are android phones and at&t saying that iPhones and android are overwhelmingly higher than any other phones. in a nutshell, verizon and at&t will nearly monopolize the mobile industry, and android and apple will monopolize the handsets that are sold. again, this is just a shot in the dark by me. maybe i am wrong. i am just looking at numbers, thats all.

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