On the face of it, you would expect to see BlackBerry report a handsome turnaround in market share in most countries. The BlackBerry Passport has become the most talked about 'Berry since the BlackBerry Storm, and the BlackBerry Classic also seems to have caught on with smartphone buyers. But according to Seeking Alpha's Mark Hibben, based on market share data from Kantar WorldPanel, BlackBerry is actually going to report a market share decline of 50% in most countries for the company's third quarter report for fiscal 2015, due out this Friday.
For the quarter, Hibben sees phone sales dropping to 960,000 units from last year's 1.9 million units sold. Revenue from hardware sales will be 51% lower, with overall revenue declining 20%. The only market where BlackBerry won't see a huge market share decline is the Asia Pacific region, according to Hibben's forecast.
By the end of this week, we should know whether Hibben has nailed it, or whether his doomsday scenario was too harsh considering how BlackBerry does seem to be turning things around. Besides what seems like strong demand for its two new handsets, BBM now has 91 million cross-platform members and BlackBerry has started to monetize the app. Additionally, BES12 will help a corporation track a fleet of muli-platform phones including iOS, Android, BlackBerry and Windows Phone models.
Hibben is not a professional equity analyst, so keep that in mind before you have a stroke. He has a masters in Electrical Engineering and is an iOS developer, which just might taint his forecast.
Hibben's forecast of BlackBerry's third quarter earnings report
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