How many Watch units do you think Apple will sell this year?


Analysts are all over the place when it comes to predicting the Apple Watch sales for the year, ranging from 8 million to more than 40 million units, with the average consensus being 22.47 million, as you can see in the snippet below. 

Our quick back-of-the-napkin calculations indicate that Apple could sell 20-30 million timepieces this year, based on polls that one in ten iPhone users has expressed willingness to buy it when it lands. With about 300 million compatible iPhones currently in circulation - iPhone 5, 5c, 5s, 6 and 6 Plus - this returns 30 million potential buys at the upper range of the prediction. 

Naturally, not everyone that expressed interest is going to buy it, but even if Apple sells "just" 20 million or so, when you multiply such a number with at least $200 profit per timepiece, that still returns a princely $4 billion in Apple's cash coffers this year from the Watch alone, vindicating each and every cent that went into its R&D in the last four years, is all goes well. 

The company is being pretty conservative with the initial batch, though, allegedly ordering 3 million Watch units to suppliers, treading the waters lightly. If it senses real interest, though, these numbers could quickly go into overdrive. What do you think, how many Apple Watch units do you expect the team from Cupertino to move this year?

How many Watch units do you think Apple will sell this year?

Less than 10 million
59.37%
10-30 million
30.82%
More than 30 million
9.81%

source: Jon Elrichman (Twitter)

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54 Comments

1. ThePython

Posts: 902; Member since: May 08, 2013

Less than 10, probably. I mean... they're watches, not phones.

20. sgodsell

Posts: 7521; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Initially Apple said it was going to order 5-6 million. That so why did they downgrade their order to 3 million now? CNET, Reuters, TechCrunch and more all reported this. I guess the public's response to the Apple Watch is the major factor.

32. doejon

Posts: 411; Member since: Jul 31, 2012

the will not eveb sell 1 mio

46. ThePython

Posts: 902; Member since: May 08, 2013

3 million is a very good estimate imo.

51. Furbal unregistered

3-5 seems reasonable

52. cheetah2k

Posts: 2293; Member since: Jan 16, 2011

Apple have reported to have ordered 20M units from their suppliers.. Imagine that. 20M units at the base cost of $349 is approx. $7Bn Has anyone found out the cost per unit for each of these watches? Apple generally have a 550% mark up, so that means the watch components amount to about $63.... So that's about $1.26Bn for the order, and a net profit of $5.7Bn.. Not bad

2. chistoefur

Posts: 103; Member since: Nov 05, 2012

I certainly hope it's less than 10 million. Not that many people should be dumb enough to buy a first gen product that will be obsolete within 12 months.

6. ArtSim98

Posts: 3535; Member since: Dec 21, 2012

It'd obsolete on arrival XDDD

9. seven7dust unregistered

isn't that true with all electronics ? IMO the Apple watch sport will sell well, everything else will flop I mean who cares for stainless steel ? and to price it at 900+$ !!! I can't even ? Aluminium is far more premium than Steel. but the band selection for the sports version is a joke only black is usable. everything else is for girls , my girlfriend wanted red but no red. I'm guessing they will be third party bands for the sports version. For me a fitness watch having iPod functionality ,heart rate sensor and HIIT timers is nice but I have to play with one to decide . plus other travel related functions like pay and keyless hotel rooms is quite nice in the future , which will make it more unique as more adopt nfc tech. Hmmm 10 million sports watches @ 349$ isn too high for a Apple product when you think about it, they'll probably sell more !!!!

24. sgodsell

Posts: 7521; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

The problem with Aluminum is it's no where near as strong or as durable as stainless steel. A watch you can't put a case around it, like most people do with their iPhones. Also the watches will see more scraps and scuffs, then any smart phone. Also Stainless steel is not that expensive. Look if Samsung, LG, Motorola and others can make Stainless Steel smart watches that are inexpensive, and Apple could do the same. But everyone should know Apple by now. They make everything, say its premium and slap their higher priced tags on their devices.

30. drindia

Posts: 9; Member since: Feb 17, 2015

Problem of durability is more with screen, body durability will not be much different in steel or aluminium for all practical purposes.

54. sgodsell

Posts: 7521; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Stainless steel is much harder then aluminum any day of the week. Its easier to scratch or scuff aluminum compared to steel.

39. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

NO. It is not true of ALL electronics. The ones that it is true of, thy tend to be behind by a much smaller degree. Here let me help you with that. The Ativ S, Galaxy S3 were the phones of 2012. Agreed? Both with 1280x720 displays, both at 4.7/8" displays. Here we are 2014 iPhone with 750p display which is just 720p basically 2 years later for a higher price. 5MP camera on front vs 1.2MP which was standard in 2004. 16MP camera vs 8. 8MP was standard on many devices in 2011/2012. 1GB of RAM was in phones back in 2009, here we are in 2014 with the iPhone 6 and it still has 1GB of RAM. I didn't even bring the S6 Edge into the picture or the Note 4 because these are on a higher plain vs the iPhone 6. But bring in the 6+ and we have the same problem. 1080p was standard in 2012, now others have already moved on to 1440p. Still 1GB of RAM. Storage has moved up to 32GB on the real flagships, while Apple is still 16GB even though IOS takes up 45% of that 16GB. 3.7MP wide angle elens vs 1.2MP 720p recoding lens. LAME! I could go on, but why? First off you have your mind made up claiming some OEM's have obsolete products on arrival. That is simply false. LG and Samsung both had 2k and 4k TV's with 12months of each other. Let me give another example. When Apple first released the Mac Air, it was like the MacBook using Core 2 Duo or better known as C2D, while the Windows OEM's wwere using Sandy Bridge i3/i5/i7. Then when Apple finally moved to Sandy Bride, everyone else was already on Ivy Bridge. There is a huge difference to not being first vs just being really behind. Smart watches are still new. However, the Apple Watch is way behind the Gear S. The Gear S came out last year. The writers of PA and other sites bashed Samsung for the original Gear which wasn't a standalone device, and Samsung listened and made the Gear S which is 100% standalone, yet the Apple Watch is sill considered better? Yet it has the same limitations of the original Gear which is a year old now? The Gear S made the Apple Watch obsolete right while Apple had it as a demo with the iPhone 6 release. Come dude...big difference in being late and being obsolete. If I release the same tech in the same year as you, then yes I may be late, but I not obsolete. Big difference. Apple 1080p 2014, everyone else 2011. Apple 750p now, everyone else 720p in 2010. Apple 1GB since 2007, everyone else is up to 2GB/3GB. Need I go on?

44. Run.n.Gun

Posts: 45; Member since: Nov 06, 2013

Nah..that was long enough

48. stealthd unregistered

I swear, every time someone makes a post like this the "facts" are completely made up. So you know the S3 came out in 2012. . . but somehow you think 1080p was "standard" that year. It wasn't. I don't know what the point is in saying "1GB of RAM was in phones back in 2009". What phone are you talking about? Most non-iPhones were nothing special that year, save for the Motorola Droid that came out in December with a whopping 256MB of RAM. You're way too focused on specs and completely ignore performance. With "worse" specs, iPhones still come out on par and in some cases superior to the competition. That's in real photo comparisons, real benchmarks, real screen quality tests. You live in a world of meaningless specs, and a lot of them you just made up.

50. darkkjedii

Posts: 31529; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I googled what he was saying, and it was all pretty much Cool urs wrong. Nothing I googled had a gig of RAM back then. He told me, his dad was stronger than my dad too.

55. shahrooz

Posts: 792; Member since: Sep 17, 2013

dude iPhones photoes are just okay compared to android flagships specially Note 4 and GS6 which is going to be better than Note 4. screen quality is not superiour neither. but I get your point they have very good optimization, we gotta give credit where its due.

49. darkkjedii

Posts: 31529; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I truly wonder, if you ever get horny.

3. Ruturaj

Posts: 1484; Member since: Oct 16, 2014

where's 10 to 20?

7. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Thank you! I was thinking about 10 to 15 million for a first year product. The iPhone and iPad did not sell a whole lot the first year compared to what they did later. People are referencing phone sales way to much. As much as I am a fan of Apple and the Apple Watch, it's an accessory(jewelry), not a necessity.

17. duartix

Posts: 311; Member since: Apr 01, 2014

I think he meant 10 to 20 units...

31. Commentator

Posts: 3723; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

I'd say 10-15. I don't think it'll be anywhere near 30 though.

4. arch_angel

Posts: 1651; Member since: Feb 20, 2015

probably something like 10-16

5. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

Is this a relevant question?

8. cdm283813

Posts: 424; Member since: Jan 10, 2015

I'm saying 10 to 30 million just because it has the Apple logo on it. I consider that Watch OS confusing and un-Apple like but all that these fanboys care about are the looks and it's new. By the time sales slow they will just reduce the cost or come out with a plastic model to bump up sales.

43. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Kind of like the iPhone 4 with those antenna breaks being unApple like when it leaked? You might want to use an Apple watch before you talk about how confusing it is. It just screams you are just looking for something negative to say. Gotta love the robots.

10. imran86

Posts: 208; Member since: Sep 14, 2012

PA is starting to look like apple marketing department. You could come up with a lower number say 1 million but that would upset Apple which you don't want.

11. mdroid

Posts: 48; Member since: Mar 15, 2013

< 1 mill.

12. scramasax

Posts: 45; Member since: Mar 07, 2015

No one should buy one, of course but, knowing the pandemic level of Apple fans -especially in Asia-, I am sure that they will near 10 million and even possibly cross the 10 million unit... Personally I am eagerly waiting for the LF Watch Urbane LTE (what a gorgeous and not smartphone dependent true smart watch should be) assuming LG are smart enough to commercialize them outside of South Korea...

14. Neros

Posts: 1016; Member since: Dec 19, 2014

I'd say 3-5million.

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