Analysts say supply chain check shows Apple iPhone shipments remains on track for current quarter

Over the last few weeks, as Apple's share price has plunged 32% from its peak, several analysts have cut their estimates on iPhone shipments for the quarter that started yesterday. Citi Research now expects Apple to ship 45 million iPhone units from January through March, a 10% cut from the 50 million handsets it originally forecast. That includes a 48% cut in iPhone Max XS production.

This morning, analysts working for Cowen (as per Apple Insider) sent a note to clients stating that their check of the supply chain shows something interesting. These analysts say that the recent preliminary importation and sales ban of some older iPhone models in China is having a "negligible impact to the supply chain thus far." The affected models make up just 25% of total iPhone production for the three months, say the Cowen analysts. Besides, the update to iOS 12.1.2 was supposed to remove software that infringed on Qualcomm patents, which Apple says allows it to continue selling these models.

As a result of its research into the supply chain, Cowen is keeping its forecast of iPhone shipments during the current quarter at 44 million units, which is in line with the revised forecasts from Citi Research. For the quarter that ended in December (Apple's fiscal first quarter of 2019), the brokerage house expects Apple to have shipped 73.5 million iPhones during the three month period; that includes a change in the mix that added 1.5 million iPhone XR units, and an additional 1.5 million iPhone XS Max units. Last year, Apple shipped 77.32 million phones during its fiscal first quarter, and 52.22 million iPhones during the period from January through March, 2018.

For all of 2019, Cowen expects Apple to ship less than 200 million handsets, which translates into a drop of 7% to 10% year-over-year.