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Why the iPhone 5 probably won't double Apple's market share

Why the iPhone 5 probably won't double Apple's market share
Gene Munster is an analyst with Piper Jaffray, and a reasonably good analyst too, depending on what he's trying to predict. He's quite good at having inside info as to when Apple will be releasing certain products, but his predictions for success or failure of products has had a spotty history. Once, he predicted that Apple would have $1.2 billion in app sales in 2009. Apple ended up with $4.2 billion in app sales for 2009. Predictions are difficult, we understand, and Munster has had a fair record of being right, or at least close. Now, Munster is claiming that the iPhone 5 will double Apple's market share in the smartphone world, and we're sorry to say that we can't really get behind that thinking. 

A reputable source doesn't guarantee a reputable study

Okay, first thing's first here, let's lay out one ground rule for anyone reading about statistics or studies: sample size is king. If your study doesn't poll enough people, your results mean nothing. You could poll a few hundred people in Japan and try to claim that 90% of the world doesn't speak English, but it's not the most reliable data. Piper Jaffray is a good company with reliable research, but what was the sample size for Munster's claims? 216 people. 

216 people isn't even a reliable sample size to find out if people like bacon or not, so it's really hard to trust this one. On top of that, of those 216 people polled 28% had a BlackBerry, 26% had another type of phone, 29% had an iPhone and a mere 17% owned an Android. So, right off the bat, even if we remove the feature phone users from the study, we're looking at a sample that doesn't represent the true market in which Android held 48% worldwide in Q2 of this year. Whereas, most estimates have Android around 35-40% of overall smartphone install base, with iOS around 20% and BlackBerry around 15%.

Why the iPhone 5 probably won't double Apple's market share
The claim that 74% of Verizon customers were waiting on the iPhone 5 came from this same study, although we don't know how many of the 216 polled were Verizon customers. Let's assume for arguments' sake that half of the people polled were Verizon customers, that's only a 108 person sample size, which is definitely difficult to take at face value. Of all respondents in Munster's poll, 64% planned to buy the iPhone 5, but we just can't see how that number can be extrapolated to cover the entire smartphone market. Apple has been staying very steady in market share at around 20-25% depending on the estimates, while Android has been gaining and BlackBerry losing share. The study also doesn't seem to specify whether the doubling of Apple's market share is US-only or world-wide. If we're talking about just the US, we're being asked to trust data from 216 people to scale to a country of over 300,000,000, which is nearly impossible as is, let alone trying to extend to the entire globe.

Other issues with the predictions

Aside from the very small sample size used to arrive at these numbers, there are two major issues that need to be considered when it comes to predicting the iPhone 5's success. First is competition. AT&T has been beefing up its Android selection and Windows Phone 7 selection, so the iPhone isn't the only option for AT&T customers. As the Q2 revenues showed for AT&T, Android is making a big push on the carrier, and iPhone 5 or not, this can only be a bad thing for Apple. Verizon has been the biggest seller of Android devices, and Android has continued to thrive even with the introduction of the iPhone 4 on Verizon. It's certainly likely that some Verizon customers will have skipped the iPhone 4 and Android to wait on the iPhone 5, but the competition is fierce out there and only getting tougher with more Androids on AT&T and WP7 Mango devices on the horizon.

Why the iPhone 5 probably won't double Apple's market share
Secondly are the troubles surrounding LTE. If the iPhone 5 doesn't have LTE, by the time the iPhone 5 launches in October (assuming those rumors are true), Verizon will be close to its goal of having LTE in 145 markets with more coming in 2012. Verizon has already changed its early-termination options and killed one-year contracts. So, if new users are going to be locked into a 2-year deal, will they really want a 3G-only iPhone?

Also, there is no guarantee that the iPhone 5 will have LTE, and if it does, the added cost could change forecasts. So far, LTE enabled devices on Verizon have been on average $50 more expensive than comparable non-LTE devices. $200 has been the sweet spot for smartphones, so it's unclear how well a $250 iPhone would sell. The HTC ThunderBolt was said to outsell the iPhone on Verizon early on (although this survey seems pretty unreliable as well), so maybe the extra cost won't make much of a difference, but we just don't know right now. 

Conclusion

Overall, it's very difficult to trust a study of just 216 people, but beyond that Apple certainly doesn't have an easy road ahead. Expectations and buzz around the iPhone 5 will be big, as they are with any Apple device these days, but just because there's buzz doesn't always mean much. The buzz has been big for every iPhone so far, and Android still took over the market just by sheer numbers. 

It is still possible that the iPhone 5 will in fact double Apple's market share simply because feature phones and BlackBerries are likely going to continue to lose their market share. As feature phones continue to become a smaller and smaller piece of the overall mobile spectrum, that leaves more room for smartphones, and RIM has yet to prove that BlackBerries can stay competitive. Many analysts still see Windows Phone grow in popularity, and that climb may begin to ramp up during this purchasing cycle, but likely won't be at full steam, so that leaves a lot of space for iPhone and Android to grow. But, as yet Apple hasn't been the company benefitting from the decline of BlackBerry and feature phones, and doubling market share is a big task. It's possible, but these numbers don't give enough to believe it will happen.

sources: Mashable, PCMag 

76 Comments
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posted on 02 Aug 2011, 18:35 8

1. beatlesfan (Posts: 150; Member since: 03 Mar 2011)


Guarantee the comments section gets pretty heated here, but I agree 100% about sample size being king.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:55 10

24. Fanboys Suck (Posts: 609; Member since: 12 Dec 2008)


Why would anyone think that the new iPhone would DOUBLE their market share? That is an asinine assumption!

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 18:45 12

2. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)


One thing for sure. The iphone5 will be another successful release. I don't think that it will ever topple android's total market share, but the iphone5 will definitely be the bestselling smartphone model based on individual smartphone sales figures.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:38 3

14. box (unregistered)


A fair conclusion, especially based on how well the iphone4 sells, despite its flaws.

What I'd like to see are buyers who stay away from the mainstream and select what single phone meets their taste best, not what their friend bought, or what the news says they should buy. With such great phones coming soon with the buyer's choice of Windows (Mango), Google (Ice Cream Sandwich), or apple (ios5), these next few months should be very interesting

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:37

22. snowgator (Posts: 3205; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


Gemini, except for the patent wars, I am finding less and less arguments with your posts. No one who has even a passing interest can argue that the iPhone 5 will be a runaway hit. So long as Apple continues to pour it's heart and soul into it, the iPhone is assured of a spot in the top devices for a long time. If feature phones keep decreasing in sales, than that is the market Apple, Google, and Microsoft are fighting for. RIM will fight to maintain, and HP will hope just to make a 5 - 7% splash. It WILL be interesting ...

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 09:03

57. jroc74 (Posts: 4720; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


I'm speechless....but I agree 100% with ya.

+1 to you ..

posted on 04 Aug 2011, 00:27

74. NeXoS (Posts: 278; Member since: 03 May 2011)


Well, not if they make the entire front screen go edge to edge. On paper, that sounds cool but so did "an entire metal band around the body acting like an antenna."

It's a multi touch screen, I can envision problems with an edge to edge screen.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 18:50 4

3. Yeeee (Posts: 190; Member since: 02 Aug 2011)


Less than Half of old iphone users will get it, Most of people with blackberries will get it, and feature phones will split too.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:29

7. yeeeeee---your stupid (unregistered)


Most people with blackberries will get it? I don't see where you are coming up with that analysis.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:30

8. yeeeeee---you're stupid (unregistered)


*****

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:42 1

16. Yeeee (Posts: 190; Member since: 02 Aug 2011)


If you have a blackberry you either are a business user or most got it instead of an iphone. Now the iphones and android phones are cheaper so more ppl will buy them now. 2 years ago no carrier had android phones except tmobile and the iphone is only on 2 carriers. Some People with iphones are willing to try something else and feature phones just want any smartphone thats free or high end

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:56

17. yeeeeee---you're stupid (unregistered)


I still do not understand your logic. You have confused me even more.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 05:54 1

51. raffy (unregistered)


excuse me, you said, "Now the iphones and android phones are cheaper so more ppl will buy them now," how come iphone is cheap???? I dont think so. Its more expensive than other android phones and nokia phones.. if your talking about cheapness you should buy samsung, LG, nokia, and many other phones. i think you should wake up and come to reality of what your saying about. peace.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 15:23

69. BobbyTaba (Posts: 316; Member since: 11 Aug 2010)


you can buy a iphone 4 for 150 and a 3gs for 50 dumbass. You should wake up and come to reality of what your talking about. Asshole

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:00 4

4. quakan (Posts: 1176; Member since: 02 Mar 2011)


I always forget that when you get your phone, the carrier locks you in for 2 years. Sure some people have no problem with buying an iPhone at contract price this year and then paying retail next year to stay current, but your average consumer would have a problem with that. By time you get your next update, if you buy this possibly 3g only iPhone, it would be late 2013 and by then who knows how far LTE will be by then. The 3g market could possibly be obsolete by then and no one likes being the last person to get with the times. That makes me think that if the iPhone launches in Sep. or Oct. it would at least have to be upgradable to LTE (possibly make it 3g/LTE phone and disable the LTE until they figure out the necessary software to make it have a great battery life since that's what apple prides themselves in).

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:35

13. applesauce (unregistered)


I'm suprised iphone buyers just don't pay full retail from the get-go, then sell the device they bought when the new one came out to help defray the cost of the follow-up model. Getting locked into a contract for an iphone is just asking for problems, moreso if something happened to it, like liquid/physical damage or if it got lost or stolen.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:20

20. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2668; Member since: 26 May 2011)


Verizon has promised to have the entire US covered with LTE by 2013, but of course there's no telling how LTE will look globally.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 22:16

35. protozeloz (Posts: 5375; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


Well where I am right now i can confirm LTE will start rolling out on 2012 also friends from UK have told me LTE is going there so 2012 May be the year of LTE. Also there must be put to consideration that if the next gen iPhone will spot both cdma and gsm bands fitting lte may be even more troublesome on a dual core device with dual band and furthermore cause issues. Apple won't simply get on firing range specially when their sales are outstanding and they can get $$$$ from android too

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 22:04

31. protozeloz (Posts: 5375; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)


That would be a bad move. It. Caused the xoom to loose. More than the numbers they could have gotten

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:04 7

5. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Thank you for this op ed, Phonearena. It was a long time in coming.

Though you may just make Taco's head explode, because this flies RIGHT in the face of what he was arguing the other night.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:32 1

10. iwebdroidberry7 (Posts: 230; Member since: 17 Jan 2011)


It's always been clear to me that Apple can't stop Androids grown on it own. Only a loony fanboy would even argue that, it's nearly impossible for 3 phones to fight off an army of phones forever. But... iOS and Windows Phone together is another story. I think Android will remain on top for a while but in a few years the three may level off.

Even still Google wants marketshare, the more phones the more their services and ads get shown off, and Apple wants revenue. They are both doing well. And I would cry if either died off.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:50 1

23. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Not really sure where you see that. I never said Apple would double market share. I said it makes sense that 74% of people ALREADY PLANNING of getting an iPhone are waiting for the 5.

Also the guy quotes another unscientific survey about the thunderbolt so he's not really staying consistent. Anyway I've never claimed this survey was god. I said it wasn't ridiculous like some others claimed.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 21:08 5

26. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


That last part was where you lost the plot. The survey was ridiculous.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 21:38 2

30. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


And that's the difference fandroids say it's ridiculous because it's positive about Apple and try to discredit when there's plenty of proof people desire Apple products and are very happy with them. You never said it was ridiculous when they surveyed store reps and said the thunderbolt was outselling the iPhone.


Like I said very biased.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 22:14 3

33. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


That was before I found out about the nature of that survey, Taco. And even then, that one and this one are two different animals. The sample size was just too small. Furthermore, I would disavow the survey even if it was pro Android.

Any bias I have Apple has earned, Taco. However, I still maintain a reasonable viewpoint considering my hatred for Apple's business ethics.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 04:44

45. HTCiscool (Posts: 449; Member since: 16 Jul 2011)


I agree fandroids diss the iphone and cry when it succeeds for no absolute reason. But ur being a stereotype. I chose the Ipad 2 over the Flyer because it was bigger and smoother and I dont regret it. Most current iPhone users are waiting for the next one regardless of whether it has LTE or not cuz most iDiots don't know anything about smartphones.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 22:15 1

34. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Just saw your response in the other article. What's ridiculous is that you agree T-Mobile is faster than VZW when ALL the evidence shows the opposite.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 23:42 2

37. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Except the article YOU posted said that on smartphones T-Mobile was faster, while Verizon was only faster on modem cards. Tee hee. Self pwnage is delicious, isn't it, Taco?

And btw, I'm not saying Verizon isn't fast, but the article clearly stated the results. Would you like me to relink it here?

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:20

39. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Yes do me a favor and link it again. Care to elaborate why T-Mobile had faster smartphones in the article?

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:40 2

40. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


http://www.intomobile.com/2011/03/15/has-fastest-4g-network-america-all-depends-if-youre-using-usb-modem-smartphone/

"Now when talking about smartphones the tables turn. T-Mobile hits 2.28 Mbps down on average and 0.95 Mbps up. Next is Sprint with 1.50/0.56 down/up, AT&T with 1.45/0.97 down/up, and in last place is Verizon with barely 1 Mbps download speeds and 0.67 Mbps uploads."

Truth hurts, Taco.

Now, in real world average usage, people may actually get better data speeds on Verizon. I'm not knocking Verizon's data network, and if I could afford it (and if Verizon actually got coverage in a couple of spots I needed it to) I would've stayed. Heck, I'm not with T-Mobile either. It was just too delicious to pass up when the article you posted as proof of you being right actually proved you partially wrong.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:51

43. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Ok sniggly did you read that VZW didn't have a 4G phone at this time. So yes T-Mo 4G beat VZW 3G. How's that self pawnage again?

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 01:10 2

44. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


Yeah, but that wasn't until you started digging into the article. Verizon still lost on the smartphone test.

Again, I'm not saying your overall point about Verizon's 4G network speeds being fast is wrong. Your usage of the article was just funny.

In other words, Taco, and I'm going to make this as plain as possible:

GET OVER YOURSELF.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 22:58

36. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2668; Member since: 26 May 2011)


Yep, you're right on that. The survey about the Thunderbolt really isn't the best done either. Edited the article. Thanks for the catch!

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:17 2

38. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


No problem Michael good read anyway. Can you do me a favor and ban sniggly.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:44 2

42. Sniggly (Posts: 6920; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)


LOL! LOL! LOL!

DUDE, really? REALLY, Taco?! That's just too amazing. Really! After all of these months, after you laughing at poor people, calling remixfa the stupidest poster on Phonearena, after accusing Android users of not having sex lives, after chirping "Crushing Defeat!" five hundred times, you ask Michael to ban me just because I pointed out your self pwnage?

You're just too entertaining, Taco. Hell, I'll thumb you up and agree. Your post was so funny I almost want to get banned just to give you a taste of legitimacy.

You're almost too much, Taco. Just too f**king much. :D

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 04:47 1

46. HTCiscool (Posts: 449; Member since: 16 Jul 2011)


This was so entertaining Snigg and Taco I laughed my head off!!! Sorry Taco u got pwned!

BTW why do why do Droid users not have sex lives?

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 09:01

56. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Only someone who doesn't read the article would think I got pawned. My while point was VZW 4G is faster which the article backs up. T-Mo beat VZW 3G smarphones because they hadn't launched a 4G smartphone yet.

Just because you trolls back each other up doesn't make you right.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 09:03

58. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Oh and android users don't get laid. It's well documented.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 13:42

64. rican (Posts: 132; Member since: 02 Jul 2011)


Sniggly pretty much powned u and u know it, how does having a type of phone have anything to do with getting laid, ive never had a woman turn me down or s**t even get wet from me having an android. well documented? would you like to follow me around for a week and see how many times i get laid or dont get laid for having an android? that just tops every dumb s**t u have ever said. then after all the times uve typed stupid s**t uve never got banned but you want sniggly out of everyone to get banned, WTF!!!

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 15:09

67. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)


Explain how I was "pawned". I said VZW 4G is faster which was backed up by the article I posted.


Where is this "pawnage" you speak of. By the way using the word pawnage is one good telltale sign that you don't get laid.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 16:18 1

71. rican (Posts: 132; Member since: 02 Jul 2011)


its not saying your wrong im saying that you love to contradict yourself alot and sniggly proved it, and im not even gonna go on the getting laid part its pointless to argue about that because
A) your not my d**k
B) your not my girl
C) its the internet

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 05:27 6

49. PeterIfromsweden (Posts: 1230; Member since: 03 Aug 2011)


Hey Taco, ive been reading alot of your arguments between fandroids, and i must say that you must grow up a little.
(Im very capable of deciding who has a better argument, because im neither a fandroid or a isheep. Im a Meego and bada fan : ) )
By the way, im new here.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 08:49 2

54. Owlet (Posts: 446; Member since: 21 Feb 2011)


It's a waste of everybody's time to explain that to taco. He will never know..... Welcome, Peter!

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 14:22

66. PeterIfromsweden (Posts: 1230; Member since: 03 Aug 2011)


OK, thanks.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:06 6

6. Whateverman (Posts: 3192; Member since: 17 May 2009)


There will still be lines. Long, long lines. I don't understand it, but it amazes me. Especially the guy that starts waiting like a week before the release just to be the first. I've never felt the need to stand in line for ANY product.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 13:45

65. rican (Posts: 132; Member since: 02 Jul 2011)


me neither but ive thought about making some money out of it though, like that lady last year i forgot what product but she got a s**t load of money to get her spot in line.

posted on 04 Aug 2011, 02:36

75. Whateverman (Posts: 3192; Member since: 17 May 2009)


You may be on to something there. I may just have to do that myself.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:30 3

9. box (unregistered)


Michael H, I'd vote for you to be Editor-in-chief if there ever were such a poll. What a pleasant read. Thank you.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 00:44

41. thinnairr (unregistered)


I second that! But that's also why I come to phonearena as opposed to other websites.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:32 3

11. pete7625 (banned) (Posts: 86; Member since: 01 Jul 2010)


This has nothing to do with the article, and probably going to get me some thumbs down, But I would LOVE if the iPhone 5 looks like what it does in the picture, lol.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:41 1

15. iwebdroidberry7 (Posts: 230; Member since: 17 Jan 2011)


Ill never understand people that come to blogs and complain about the articles.

It's like someone giving you a free meal in their home and you say, yeah I don't like meatloaf so please don't serve it anymore.

If you don't like PA's content then leave.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:21 1

21. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2668; Member since: 26 May 2011)


pretty sure you're missing a bit of sarcasm from applesauce.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 19:59

18. Leodrade (unregistered)


if the design of the next Iphone is equal to the one on the first photo, i would consider buying one instead of an android flagship

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:18 1

19. ryq (unregistered)


you dont need a degree or to be a rocket scientist to know that. with samsung s2 and other android phone out there and with a steep price of iphone, iphone will never double its market share.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 20:58

25. snowgator (Posts: 3205; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


Oh sure, make it sound simple ......

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 21:20

28. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)


steep price? doesn't the iPhone start at $199 just like the high end Androids out there? seems like every iteration everyone throws down their gauntlets claiming that its not going to be that big of a deal but when the phone releases it continues to break records. guess we'll just have to see...maybe this time it won't see all that much but history dictates otherwise.

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 05:01

47. snowgator (Posts: 3205; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


No way to tell how much the iPhone 5 will be priced, but pencil it in at about 250.00 to start on a two year contract. If that is close, what ryq was pointing out was that the iPhone most likely will have trouble increasing it's sales due to the price point putting it where the average phone buyer will not shell out the cash for it.

To put it Automobile terms: Both Lincoln and Cadillac shoot for the same price point. But the average new car buyer doesn't pay those prices and buys a Ford or Chevy. Just by the price point, Lincoln and Cadillac know what the top end of their sales will be, and it is kinda hard to increase much past that. The iPhone does have steeper competition this time, so the price of the GS2, high end Moto's, HTC's, and the iPhone kinda put a cap on the increase in sales they can see. Now, the smart phone market is still growing unlike the Auto industry, so increases will happen. But premium devices will appeal only to those willing to pay those prices. Most of my friends and family refuse to shell out more than 100$ on a phone.

When the next Galaxy series comes out, bet they will see sales very close to what the GS2 ends up at for the same reason: price.

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 21:15

27. biophone (Posts: 1893; Member since: 15 Jun 2011)


I agree with this article 100 percent. As i said the other night the sample size is to small. However i do agree it seems to me that more people are satisfied with iOS then android and a lot of people are waiting for the iPhone 5. However i wouldn't deduce this from that survey nor do i think apple will double in market share. For me I have a iPhone 4 and am waiting for the iPhone 6. iPhone 6 FTW!

posted on 02 Aug 2011, 21:34 1

29. dandirk (unregistered)


fyi... this is the same survey as the other heated debate.

Nice to see this one more civil.

Not sure about the whole Windows 7 OS... They might just be too late, since market share is king... its hard to take market share.

I don't think Apple Market share will double... possibly over the year as the iphone is released for more carriers.

My opinion is that the AT&T deal was the worst mistake Apple made with the whole phone thing. Sure they got insane control and unheard of % of data subs but it did allow android the room to prosper the way it did. While some android users jump ship @ verizon others could be more committed with integrated google accounts, tons of already paid for android apps etc.

If not for the AT&T deal I would bet apple market share would be 50-60+% right now.

Though maybe the control and high margin was all they wanted. Apple is known for being control freaks (one of the reason the OS is stable).

posted on 03 Aug 2011, 05:09

48. snowgator (Posts: 3205; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


As usual, Dandirk, I agree with most of your post. Just hope you are wrong on W7.

You are right on the AT&T/iPhone deal helping Android to take off. But hindsight is 20/20 and all those other cliche's. Besides, it made the iPhone what it is today- exclusive and the most reconizable name in mobile. Hard to argue that success.

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