Analysts calling for strong Android sales are being thrown off track

TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo disseminated some notes online covering a wide variety of topics. It makes for some interesting and thoughtful holiday reading as you sit beside the fireplace attracted by the warmth. Kuo notes that other analysts are bullish on Android basing their optimism on strong demand for components from the supply chain. But Kuo has a different opinion and it's based on heavy demand for a phone that isn't powered by iOS or Android.

Kuo says that the stronger-than-expected demand for the Huawei Mate 60 Pro (which is powered by Huawei's own HarmonyOS) led Huawei to spend heavily buying components for the Mate 60 line and other models. Android manufacturers, picking up on this buying spree, felt compelled to follow suit to make sure that they had enough parts for their own products.

This "strong stock replenishment," as the analyst calls it (per AI translation), is expected to end next month. But as it continues to go on, Kuo says that it gives the illusion of improved demand for Android phones. Kuo compares the bogus calls for strength in Android demand to a similar pattern that took place during the second and third quarters of this year. That's when strong stock replenishment in the PC and TV industries had analysts calling for strong demand for those products which, by the way, never materialized.

Kuo also says that the most important product launch for Apple next year is its $19 polishing cloth. NO! Just kidding. The analyst says that the Vision Pro spatial computer, which will retail for a cool $3,499, is Apple's most important product launch for next year. Kuo expects Apple to ship 500,000 units in 2024. If every single unit is sold at full price, Apple would generate $1.75 billion in revenue.

The Vision Pro is being mass-produced now and mass shipments will begin during the first week of January. This would suggest that the product will hit Apple Store shelves in the U.S. in late January or early February. Kuo notes that if user feedback is better than expected, it will show that the "Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics."