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Munster mash: Apple iPad mini to take 1 million units in sales away from full-sized iPad

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Munster mash: Apple iPad mini to take 1 million units in sales away from full-sized iPad
We've run across the name of Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster quite often with his many predictions. But that is what a Wall Street analyst does. With pencil,paper and slide rule in hand, Munster crunches numbers to reach a conclusion. The latest estimate from Munster is that the introduction of an Apple iPad mini will cannibalize sales of the full-sized model by 1 million units. Munster concludes that one out of every five iPad mini tablets sold is a sale that would have belonged to the full-sized Apple tablet. Even with the 20% cannibalization rate, the analyst sees Apple selling 25 million tablets in Q4, up from a previous forecast of 21 million units.

Mockup of the Apple iPad mini

Mockup of the Apple iPad mini

According to Munster, the iPad mini will help Apple sell 95 million iPads in 2013, up from his prior forecast of 86.5 million. The expected 7.85 inch tablet should account for 25% of the total number sold. He also expects Apple to price the iPad between $249 and $299. That would allow the device to compete with the 7 inch low-priced Android tablets like the Amazon Kindle Fire HD and the 8GB Google Nexus 7. Munster expects many buyers of the smaller tablet to pay up for higher storage or for more connectivity options. Some recent speculation has 16 different SKU's available for the Apple iPad mini.

The Apple iPad mini is rumored to sport a 7.85 inch screen and is expected to be introduced at a "by-invitation only" event on October 23rd.

source: Electronista

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posted on 17 Oct 2012, 17:16 3

1. mas11 (Posts: 1034; Member since: 30 Mar 2012)

What about competition with the iPod touch? At $250 it would be $50 than the new iPod touch. If I had to guess I would say $300-$350, not $250-$300. Plus a price that low would cut into Apple's extremely high profit margin.

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 18:01

5. mas11 (Posts: 1034; Member since: 30 Mar 2012)

*more than

posted on 18 Oct 2012, 02:20 1

9. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5993; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)

Meh. Price-wise, I suspect you will see the iPod Touch XL slot in between the non-XL iPod Touch models and the iPad models. There is a gap that presently exists that can be nicely filled by the iPod Touch XL.

As far as the cannibalization argument goes, there may be some, but I suspect the extent to be minimal. A million iPads traded for 10 million incremental iPod Touch XL sales would be an acceptable trade, IMO.

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 17:30 1

2. smartcelladam (Posts: 5; Member since: 16 Jul 2012)

My guess is the models will range 249-349 maybe even more solely on available features.
If they release a low cost ipad mini with worse connectivity than the ipod touch, or even less memory, less competition will occur.
Ex. 32 gig ipod touch and 8 gig ipad mini being same price.

I wouldn't put it passed Apple.

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 17:32 2

3. deuel_18 (Posts: 54; Member since: 25 Sep 2012)

Apple's spoilage on costumer with high cost is ending now...Apple is falling in favor of the competition...if they wont drop down their price at competitive price,they'll lose the battle

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 17:59 4

4. darac (Posts: 2156; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)

I said right away that mini will take a big chunk off the big iPad.
And I say Munster is actually off in his prediction, the cannibalism rate will be much higher - people will buy either the mini either the classic iPad. There's really no point in buying both

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 19:58 4

6. phil2n (Posts: 487; Member since: 30 Apr 2012)

he is genius!! for an ifan like that

and when we ask him about surface he would just say "Surface gonna sell 50k tablets.. :-\ TROLL

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 21:50 1

7. jimjam (unregistered)

take 1 million from the full sized ipad and 10 million from android tablets. Not bad.

posted on 17 Oct 2012, 22:00 1

8. sarb009 (Posts: 315; Member since: 15 Jun 2011)

hello $H33P sorry baa baa $H33P

posted on 18 Oct 2012, 06:32

10. Even4steven (Posts: 43; Member since: 03 Aug 2012)

With phones getting bigger, I am still not getting the appeal of the 7" tablet. My iPad 2 basically is a stay at home device and my Galaxy S3 goes where I go.

Where does the 7" tablet fit into this equation? (outside of lower price points)

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