Morgan Stanley: Apple iPhone, Apple iPad sales stronger than expected

Morgan Stanley: Apple iPhone, Apple iPad sales stronger than expected
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty sent out a notice to clients on Thursday that her meetings in Asia with companies along Apple's supply chain showed that sales of the Apple iPhone 5 and Apple iPad mini are stronger than anticipated. Wall Street estimates the Cupertino based firm will sell 46 million units of the Apple iPhone and 23 million Apple iPad tablets in the current quarter, figures which Huberty sees Apple topping. She also sees Apple beating estimates for the quarter ended in March 2013 which currently stand at 43 million handsets and 19 million tablets.

The analyst says that earlier problems producing  the new in-cell touch panels have been cleared up. Yields are in the 70% to 80% area for the part. Morgan Stanley has a buy rating on the stock with a $714 price target and recommends an "overweight" position in the stock, which it sees rising as high as $980 in the next 12 months.

Morgan Stanley's analysis of the stock shows the difference between fundamental and technical stock analysis. The former, which was used by the brokerage firm for its report, uses things like supply chain analysis to determine how much money Apple will earn in the next few quarters and then slaps an arbitrary P/E ratio to the earnings per share estimate to determine if the stock is cheap or dear. The problem with this form of analysis is that no one can predict exactly how many Apple iPhone units will be sold at any given time. Additionally, no one can determine what a firm's P/E ratio should be.

Technical analysis, which uses charts, is based on the idea that knowing the past can help predict the future. Most technicians are bearish on Apple because of the stock's recent penetration of the 200 day moving average. Technical analysts will also point out that this is why good news, like a bullish report from Morgan Stanley, didn't move the stock higher on Thursday. Apple closed at $525.62 for a loss of $11.26 and the stock is down 25% since trading at its 52 week high of $705 set the day that the Apple iPhone 5 launched.

source: AppleInsider

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16 Comments

1. letgomyeggroll

Posts: 139; Member since: Jun 13, 2012

Isn't Morgan Stanely the company who was under investigation for making false numbers to investors?

4. Ballua

Posts: 16; Member since: Nov 12, 2012

it is amazing that they could make this kind of "analysis". the Nexus 7 and 4 have been sold more than just hot cakes. Demand even crack down Google server and they still can "analyze" out those figures. The market is still there. If one thing is hot, the others must be cool down. That's true always. Who will pay double price for an iphone compare to that of a supper Nexus 4?!.Who will pay double price for a phone which is almost the same over years compare to that of a much feature rich Nexus 4?!.. Think about it!

8. MeoCao unregistered

Yeah Nexus 4 is just awsome, and there are those monsters Droid DNA, and Optimus G all better than iPhone 5. Sure Apple still has lots of fans but I believe many will jump ship to Android.

2. darkkjedii

Posts: 30956; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Apple post the numbers already.

3. Shino

Posts: 196; Member since: Jul 23, 2012

Apple kicks ass! But, they gotta start smth totally new in order to stay ahead in the future.

7. darkkjedii

Posts: 30956; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

That's very true

16. Jobes

Posts: 364; Member since: Oct 27, 2011

"Stay" ahead? lol. I trust your speaking financially.

5. roscuthiii

Posts: 2383; Member since: Jul 18, 2010

Man... they're really intent on polishing that AAPL aren't they?

6. raphael007

Posts: 43; Member since: Jun 12, 2012

this would be accurate only if the expectations were 10%

9. rusticguy

Posts: 2828; Member since: Aug 11, 2012

More the stock falls more such analysts will start proping up till every one of them feels that they have been proved wrong and then they come out with analysis of their failed analysis :)

10. wendygarett unregistered

After I get the iPhone 5, I'm now anxiously getting the iPod touch blue version ^__^ Just Wait Apple

11. blingblingthing

Posts: 936; Member since: Oct 23, 2012

IPhone 5 or Nexus 4 or galaxy S3? You really see the iPhone doing well? IPad vs nexus 7 and nexus 10. You see the iPad doing well? With android prices going low. I don't see the iPhone doing well.

12. Kronic

Posts: 321; Member since: Sep 11, 2012

Ba baaaa baaaaaa!

13. Hemlocke unregistered

Actually, yes. The iPhone 5 will outsell the Galaxy S3, Note II, and Nexus 4, combined, this quarter. The iPad and iPad Mini will outsell every other tablet, combined, this quarter. These analysts on the supply chain side aren't blowing smoke. 50+ million iPhones and 20+ million iPads will hurt more than a little for Apple's competitors.

15. darac

Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

Actually, no. Only iPhone 4, 4s, and 5 together have a chance to outsell those combined..and that being a very questionable chance if you ask me. IPhone 5 alone is not such a superhero market figure as you think. Have a look at the Great Britain sales chart for October: 1: Samsung Galaxy S3 2: Apple iPhone 5 3: Samsung Galaxy S2 4: Apple iPhone 4s

14. MC1123

Posts: 1256; Member since: Nov 12, 2012

it will still do well! the world is round! and the world is not PhoneArena! and people will still buy iDevices! love it or hate it! so stop whining!

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