IDC lowers estimate of 2016 global smartphone shipments growth to 3.1% from earlier 5.7%

IDC lowers estimate of 2016 global smartphone shipments growth to 3.1% from earlier 5.7%
Analytical firm IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to grow just 3.1% this year to 1.483 billion units, lower than an earlier forecast that called for 5.7% growth. Shipments rose 10.5% last year, and 27.8% the year before that. The total number of handsets that will be delivered should reach 1.48 billion this year, hitting 1.84 billion by 2020 for a compounded growth rate of 5%.

IDC predicts that Android smartphones will continue to dominate this year due to lower prices. Shipments of the iPhone will drop 2% in 2016, according to IDC. But the decline could be a short lived one as the company's early trade-in program, and the new 4-inch Apple iPhone SE help turn things around for Apple. The tech titan should also continue to do well in China, according to the research firm.

IDC sees Android growing its share from an estimated 83.7% at the end of this year to 85.1% in 2020 for a compounded annual growth rate of 6%. During that same time period, the iPhone will see its market share decline from 15.3% to 14.5% even though it will grow shipments at a compounded rate of 2.9% during the period. Windows Phone will see shipments decline 61.6% this year, and at a compounded rate of 25.2% from 2016-2020. By 2020, IDC expects Windows Phone to have a minute .4% of the global smartphone market. 

The growth rate for this year was lowered due to a slowdown in smartphone shipments in mature markets and China. IDC sees smartphone shipments in the U.S., Western Europe and China rising by a single digit number. Japan and Canada will post declines of 6.4% and 6.9%, respectively.

With the two-year contract and subsidized phones going the way of the dinosaur, smartphone buyers are holding onto their handsets longer thus ending the two-year replacement cycle. Carriers are offering early trade-in programs which will spur demand in some mature markets.

Some segments of the smartphone market remain strong. Phablets (phones with screens measuring 5.5-inches and larger) will produce double-digit growth through 2019 before slipping to growth of 9.2% in 2020. With phablet prices sharply higher than the price of a regular smartphone ($383 vs. $263 this year), more manufacturers are making phablets their flagship handset.


source: IDC via FierceWireless

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6 Comments

1. Barney_stinson

Posts: 672; Member since: May 30, 2016

Apple, samsung both should worry!

2. sgodsell

Posts: 7318; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Apple should worry. But Samsung makes and sells the most smartphones in the world. Besides that Samsung saw a growth the last quarters and is expected to see a growth in the next quarter.

3. Napalm_3nema

Posts: 2236; Member since: Jun 14, 2013

If you don't think everyone needs to worry, your fanboy glasses are on too tight. Samsung had a good Q1 2016, but they launched the S7 a month earlier in the quarter than the S6 in 2015, and even with the S7 launch, ASP dropped in Q1 from $225 to $210. The S7S7E have been on almost constant BOGO in the U.S., so while the numbers moved might look good, there is some weakness there.

4. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Don't waste your time on him, he's gonna deny facts like the rest of the Samsung knights do. Really good information btw, probably gonna borrow it for when fanboys start making s**t up :D.

5. NoToFanboys

Posts: 3231; Member since: Oct 03, 2015

All blind fanboys deny facts, not just Samsung's.

6. sgodsell

Posts: 7318; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Remind us all here again. Who has a positive growth in the chart, and which ones are negative growth. I will spare you the trouble. Only Android sees growth, and all the other platforms including Apples iPhones see a decline.

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