First preliminary looks at 2012: Android grew, Windows Phone still outsold by Symbian and bada

First preliminary looks at 2012: Android grew, Windows Phone still outsold by Symbian and bada
We might have just missed the end of the world, but the end of 2012 is definitely nigh and this means it is time to take a look back and see what changed in mobile throughout the year.

If we had to put it shortly, we’d say - everything.

Nokia, from the world’s biggest phone maker tumbled catastrophically and when it comes to smartphones it is in dire straits. Samsung has cannibalized a huge part of its market share, and is now the biggest manufacturer when it comes to both feature and smartphones.

Apple has continued rising steadily, cementing its position as the second biggest phone maker after Samsung and second biggest platform after Android.

The rise of Chinese companies only continued, and now Huawei is expected to take a confident third place in the ranking of biggest smartphone makers for the year.

The data below is preliminary, but it comes from analyst and former Nokia executive Tomi Ahonen, who has one of the best track records around, predicting extremely accurately the catastrophic fall of Nokia and Symbian after Stephen Elop. Here are his preliminary expectations for 2012 sales:

TOP 3 SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS 2012
1 Samsung . . . . 220M - 235M units about 32% market share
2 Apple . . . . . . . 140M - 150M units about 20% market share
3 Huawei . . . . . . . 55M - 60M units about 8% market share
Race for 4th is between Sony, ZTE, Nokia and RIM.
Others in Top 10 for the year are HTC, LG and Lenovo
Motorola has fallen out of the top 10 in global smartphone makers for hte full year

TOP 3 SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS FULL YEAR 2012
1 Android . . . . . . 465M - 485M about 66% market share
2 iOS . . . . . . . . . 140M - 150M about 20% market share
3 Blackberry . . . . . 33M and about 5% market share
4th will be race between Samsung's bada and Nokia's Symbian
Windows Phone is definitely going to be ranked 6th operating system by sales in 2012

Interestingly enough, Motorola is no longer in the top 10 of smartphone makers, and it is possible that Nokia as well drops out soon, chased by little known Coolpad from China. But let’s wait and see how those Holiday sales were before jumping into conclusions - and don’t forget, those are all preliminary estimates.

source: Communities Dominate Brands

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28 Comments

1. pongkie

Posts: 663; Member since: Aug 20, 2011

"but it comes from analyst and former Nokia executive Tomi Ahonen" - someone's bitter

17. sats.mine2k4

Posts: 208; Member since: Aug 10, 2012

or perhaps the WP8 strategy of Nokia is ripe....

2. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

I won't be wrong to say Nokia has learned a l'le lesson. And since they have taken WP as their primary OS, i hope they improve the ecosystem and continue building up. And i do hope 2013 has less patent game-play. Tired of reading about it.

6. wendygarett unregistered

I don't think Nokia will die as well as rim... tired of those Nokia and rim bashing lol

9. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

Yes Wendy, they won't die...for an OEM to die it would take something tragic.

12. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

Duh!! Who in the world are these people painting this page red. Thumb us down we don't care, but atleast see if the comment is reasonable or not!! Sheeshhh!!

16. TROLL

Posts: 4851; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

Nokia WP and Rim will remain or I believe will be tumbling down more, while iOS and Android on top will dominate™®©

3. pokharkarsaga

Posts: 553; Member since: Feb 23, 2012

after the launch of blackberry 10 OS with 60000 apps,RIM will retains its 3rd position in next year and WP will move to 4th position outsolding Bada & Symbain in 2013.

4. Cynipap999

Posts: 138; Member since: Nov 15, 2012

Well, what have we learned from this article? Let's see: 1. Android #1 OS! 2. Samsung #1 Manufacturer! 3. Apple / iOS holding on to #2 manufacturer and OS, respectively, by default cuz' everything left is just abominable!! 4. Nokia made the wrong decision in partnering with Microsoft (like we all predicted it had), hence, Titanic sank for a second time: R.I.P. Nokia. 5. Microsoft Windows Mobile still mismanaged six years after the Windows Mobile 2005 disaster. 6. BlackBerry: oh well, not even worth typing characters in this post for it.

18. Commentator

Posts: 3723; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

If you had just typed "6. R.I.P BlackBerry" you would have typed far fewer characters than you did.

21. Cynipap999

Posts: 138; Member since: Nov 15, 2012

lol... +1 But I did that for Nokia, kinda' was redundant to even say it for BlackBurried.

5. Aeires unregistered

Passed up by Bada and a killed off Symbian, wow.

11. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

Come on now. Haven't you been here longer then 2 months? WP7 never sold well. It was trending upwards, but had never been higher then 2%-3% depending on which analyst was providing numbers. Bada and Symbian have ALWAYS outsold them. This is not news. Throw in WP 7 device not selling a lock over the summer due to WP 8 anticipation and that no device was getting upgraded. The only real question is what WP8 sales look like in December.

13. Aeires unregistered

First year of Metro: wait till the Nokia phones come out! Translation: first released phones weren't that great. This year: ........ no excuses, both Nokia and HTC have some great WP phones. Of course I've been following this since the beginning. Since the new WP format, they've thrown good phones at it, polished marketing, sales, and just about everything else and it's still stagnant. So yeah, wow. Biggest saving grace for WP is if W8 takes off. First reports indicate that isn't happening, people just aren't into the new tile format like MS thinks they would/should be. And before all the W8 lovers spam this with thumbs down, for the record I would love to see Nokia come back with a vengeance. I have a ton of respect for Nokia, they build great phones. Not sure if WP was the best decision for them to make though.

7. Thephonegeek

Posts: 118; Member since: Nov 22, 2012

Yeah, stop kidding. Huawei No.3 manufacturer! Bada is still larger than wp! Dude you forgot sony and htc and wp.

8. apexKBC

Posts: 92; Member since: Dec 10, 2012

Nokia should return to its paper manufacturing unit,,,,,, microsoft y not SONY for ur expansion.............!!!!!!!

10. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

If i'm not wrong, Sony has to make the first move, not Microsoft!

14. darac

Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

Oh I love these numbers. Apple is not even in the race with Android anymore. WP? Microsoft and Nokia in late 2010: " we will disrupt the ecosystem establishment within two years" LOL

26. Edmund

Posts: 656; Member since: Jul 13, 2012

Is that why android is losing market share in the US. Read the latest report from Kantar; It really doesn't look good for google or the fanboys like yourself.

15. darac

Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

Actually it's pity I didn't bookmarked my predictions for 2012 in the comments, a year ago. I was pretty damn close to this in every regard, but fell short on android and went too high on WP. I gave 60% market share to former and 3.5% percent to latter

19. Commentator

Posts: 3723; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

So did everyone else except the most rabid of fanboys.

20. Johnnokia

Posts: 1158; Member since: May 27, 2012

Just remember this name '' Victor H.'' All his articles are against Nokia and Windows. Phonearena must reconsider his work ... I got sick from his reviews

22. DeadPiXeL

Posts: 1; Member since: Dec 21, 2012

Windows Phone 8 was just released a short time ago, and the data for these predictions certainly doesn't take into account the strength of a unified Microsoft OS platform. Also, even though Android marketshare is quite significant for smartphone devices, the OS still lacks in security (and is badly fragmented), and will never be accepted by the business world...

23. Loubielou

Posts: 603; Member since: Jul 11, 2012

Nokia is just getting downgraded to its lowest Value then Microsoft steps in an Overtakes or Saves Nokia,people have seen Mr Elops plan since he stepped in at Nokia,he had to help is old Employess out as they are Miles behind Apple in Popularity

24. jameshoe unregistered

believe only in WP, it'll get the 3rd of Smartphone OS

25. Edmund

Posts: 656; Member since: Jul 13, 2012

According to Kantar, there is a growing trend away from Android. The platform even lost 20% of its US market share over the last 12 months, which is a very worrying sign for google. Of course this isn't the sort of news you'll see on phone arena.

27. Aeires unregistered

Because it's not true, they haven't lost 20% share. They might have slipped a few %, but not 20%.

28. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

Sorry Edmund, but I would need some links to believe that. If Android has lost ANY percentage in sales, it may be due to new smart phone buyers selecting iPhones or maybe some other OS. The actually number of Android devices is higher then ever according to every sales chart I have seen.

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