'The market may no longer tolerate rising ASPs': iPhone X sales nosedive spells high-end trouble for Apple

'The market may no longer tolerate rising ASPs': iPhone X sales nosedive spells high-end trouble for Apple
More and more analysts are chiming in with reduction of their iPhone X sales targets, and predicting flat or declining overall iPhone shipment for much of the year's remainder. The main reason that analysts from Nomura, City and Longbow cite, is the rising average selling price of iPhones, thanks to the $999 iPhone X, but also the increased mix of more expensive 8 Plus, compared to the $700 iPhone 8. Jeffrey Kvaal from Nomura, for example, wrote in a memo to clients:


Another Nomura analyst has cut their first quarter iPhone X sales to 8-12 million units, down from 13-18 million. That is almost the sole reason they cut the total iPhone shipments forecast for the year from 226M to 221M, and Wall Street's expected 3% growth in iPhone sales in 2018 may be more like 2%, or even flat, if things don't pan out as expected with the LCD-laden iPhone 9. Longbow Research analysts Shawn Harrison and Gausia Chowdhury are piling on, too:


Every major phone's successor last year was more expensive than the previous edition, sometimes drastically so, raising the average year-on-year price significantly, to the highest ever. We aren't even including Google's own phone line, which used to be the best value-for-money before the search giant decided to vertically integrate, and we are now left with a Pixel 2 XL that costs north of a thousand euros, for instance.

There are plenty of reasons which can be cited for that jump, and corporate greed is not even highest on the list - 2017 flagships got drastically overhauled in terms of design and materials used, 18:9 HDR displays became obligatory, and the basic storage amounts got bumped. Still, there are indications that this unpleasant trend of ever-rising smartphone prices may continue this year as well, but people are apparently already at the limit they are willing to spend on a handset, which could very well backfire, if you are a top tier maker.

source: CNBC & 9to5Mac

Related phones

iPhone X
  • Display 5.8" 1125 x 2436 pixels
  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
  • Processor Apple A11 Bionic, Hexa-core, 2390 MHz
  • Storage 256 GB
  • Battery 2716 mAh(21h 3G talk time)

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48 Comments

1. pokharkarsaga

Posts: 545; Member since: Feb 23, 2012

Consumers are smart.They no longer want to pay high price for their daily driver,which they are gonna change after every 2-3 years.

5. Awalker

Posts: 1958; Member since: Aug 15, 2013

They're predicting 8 to 12 million in one quarter. That's still a pretty high number.

7. Phonehex

Posts: 731; Member since: Feb 16, 2016

Awareness is key , earlier the lower end spectrum of phones just wasn't good enough in terms of quality, features and specs. Today , the mid range just about does every single thing decently well enough that there is no real use to 90% of the population to spend a really high amount of money of a camera which is 10% better or the speed which most people don't need.

21. therealestmc

Posts: 679; Member since: Jul 23, 2012

Consumers aren't smart. In fact they are pretty dumb. They let Samsung and Apple get away with this s**t in the first place. There is no reason a smartphone should be this expensive. I am glad there are alternative with the Chinese manufacturers.

24. midan

Posts: 2555; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"There is no reason a smartphone should be this expensive." Why not? Your smartphone can replace many products and you use it hours every single day for many different tasks. It's like mini computer in your pocket with great camera. Why it has to be cheap? "I am glad there are alternative with the Chinese manufacturers." Yeah, you pay what you ask for, good luck waiting new OS versions and good luck with security and all too.

28. TheOracle1

Posts: 1902; Member since: May 04, 2015

"Yeah, you pay what you ask for, good luck waiting new OS versions and good luck with security and all too." Enjoying Oreo on my "cheap" Mi Mix2 and it will be updated regularly for many years to come. The way things are turning out it's safer to use a Chinese smartphone than Facebook these days. Pick your poison.

31. tntwit

Posts: 82; Member since: Sep 11, 2012

Tech products historically decline in price as they mature, and they certainly have matured. It's why people are disappointed every year that there are no longer new revolutions with each new release like there was around 2010-2012 or so. Yet prices keep going up and the sales are declining. It's basic economics; prices go up and sales go down. There are formulas for the sweet spot of maximizing profit, but I think they are misjudging, or at least for the consumer's sake, I hope they are. I paid $700 for a Lenova Yoga 720 and it is far more capable than my phone (minus the camera), so paying more for a phone is rather difficult to justify for me and I doubt I am alone in that thinking.

2. Cat97

Posts: 1719; Member since: Mar 02, 2017

Good news. Ripping off customers has never worked for any company, except Apple, but even their customers have a limit.

3. c.m.s

Posts: 217; Member since: Dec 10, 2017

My guess is that we will continue to see high prices for "flagships". Market for high-end units is saturated, we won't see sales numbers like we did with iPhone 6 or in Samsungs case the S4 again. People use their phones for longer period of time now. Companies will likely want to compensate for that by keeping prices high. iPhone X is a proof that it works, people (me included) still buy them even though the price is quite a bit higher than previous models.

34. tntwit

Posts: 82; Member since: Sep 11, 2012

Weak demand doesn't increase the products value, that's not how economics works, so this downward trend isn't exactly a shock. Whether the overall profit is better for the manufacturer's is the question.

4. midan

Posts: 2555; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

What are they talking about, iPhone 8, 8+ and X combined sales are already easily over 100 million, it's not bad at all. Why people only talk about X sales when Apple released 8 and 8+ too, of course those are eating X sales too because everyone have different taste, some one X some want 8 or 7 etc.

14. TheOracle1

Posts: 1902; Member since: May 04, 2015

There will always be someone in denial.

8. TerryD

Posts: 540; Member since: May 09, 2017

If PhoneArena say that iPhone X sales have taken a nosedive, things but be really bad for the fruity firm.

9. SIGPRO

Posts: 2810; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

iphones are the most boring phones ever!

10. Wiencon

Posts: 2278; Member since: Aug 06, 2014

Cool.

20. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

Im pretty sure you're boring as hell too, maybe you can't even satisfy your girl either, so you spend your time here bashing apple.

32. TechSceptic

Posts: 1156; Member since: Feb 05, 2018

What a sad sad rebuttal. He really hurt your feelings didn't he? He was talking about Apple, which is a company. You're acting as if he insulted your mom, calm down kid.

55. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

TechSceptic we know you too, and your not so smart comments, you're in the same category as SIGPRO, just a sad and lonely hater with no life. Nobody insulted me, I just said a truth about you guys, you literally live on phonearena, hating on a company whose products nobody is forcing you to buy, every single day. I get you have the right to post your opinions, but your comments are mostly delusional hate. I bet if you satisfied your girl you wouldn't feel the need to hate on here so much, you should try i find one :)

56. TechSceptic

Posts: 1156; Member since: Feb 05, 2018

What a sad sad rebuttal. He really hurt your feelings didn't he? He was talking about Apple, which is a company. You're acting as if he insulted your mom, calm down kid.

11. NinoH

Posts: 128; Member since: Feb 09, 2018

I for one bought iphone X and gave me galaxy S8 to my wife. But this will be my phone for at least for 3 years. So i see it as a long term investment because in fact apple will update their devices for at least for 5 years.

15. Cat97

Posts: 1719; Member since: Mar 02, 2017

Drop it once and it's not such a long term investment anymore.

17. TitaofManila

Posts: 34; Member since: Mar 17, 2018

Same goes with any other phones with glass back. Point is if you have case you wouldnt worry much. Yes, Phones are getting expensive thankfully Apple is able to support their products quite long. Same goes with Google supporting up to 3 years for their Pixel line up

23. Rampage_Taco

Posts: 996; Member since: Jan 17, 2017

By update you mean throttle the CPU and Battery after 2 years? There's a reason Android Flagships don't force Software updates beyond 2 cycles, and that's because they don't want to sacrifice performance. After the 2 year period, security patches are all that need to be done

12. Subie

Posts: 2272; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

I think Samsung has already paid heed to this. Here in Canada the starting price of the new S9 is $75 less than they were asking for the S8 last. S8 = $1,035 last year, and S9 = $960 this year. Prices coming directly from Samsung's Canadian webstore. http://www.samsung.com/ca/smartphones/galaxy-s9/shop/

13. darkkjedii

Posts: 30786; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Phone are simply getting too expensive. I plan to keep my Note 8, and go two a two year upgrade cycle, it's getting ridiculous.

51. sissy246

Posts: 6956; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Agree Darkk But I am already excited about the note 9.

52. darkkjedii

Posts: 30786; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Me too, but it's gotta really wow me sis. I just bought a new Corvette, so friggin Snickers bar would have to wow me right now lol. Gotta be tight with the money for a while.

53. sissy246

Posts: 6956; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Oh cool, love Vettes We are talking about getting the Grand Cherokee srt Hellcat. I am excited about it but agree it depends on what more it has then the note 8.

54. darkkjedii

Posts: 30786; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Hellcats rock. If it's worth giving up my Note 8, that would be a major phone.

16. Panzer

Posts: 277; Member since: May 13, 2016

Phones have gotten so good that it is tough for me justify replacing my Note 8. Just put in a battery in the gf's S7 Edge as I have not seen a device that does anything exceptionaly better. And the money I will save between not updating devices this year will pay for a good chunk of snowblower I have an order.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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