iPhone may be poised to bump its market share
The idea that smartphone users were stalling to get the iPhone 4S seems to be a solid one, especially given Apple's strong opening sales. However, we're having trouble accepting that this is an "ominous sign for Android", because while there were some new handsets released for Android in Q3, the major releases that people have been waiting for are the Samsung Galaxy S II, Samsung Galaxy Nexus and DROID Bionic.
Q3 ended September 30th, and the Galaxy S II wasn't released on AT&T until October 2nd, and its Verizon cousin the Galaxy Nexus isn't due out until November, so there is a possibility that Android users held off on upgrading for those devices and not the iPhone 4S. Just as the iPhone 4S sales numbers can back up part of McCourt's idea, the global success of the Galaxy S II can be used to back up our idea that this may not be as terrible a sign for Android as McCourt believes. The data could certainly point to Apple taking back some market share from Android as well as other smartphone makers, but we're not sure that "ominous" is the right adjective.
58. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5150; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
Sounds like buyers were waiting to see what both Apple and Android were going to release. I will hold off declaring victory/defeat for either iOS or Android devices until the sales results for 4Q2011 are in.
I suspect that Android and iOS will show sales gains year-over-year and Nokia/WP7 and RIM will show sales declines. Same-old, same-old.
69. jroc74 (Posts: 3621; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
Exactly. They are acting like no one was waiting for these newer Android phones to become a reality.
2. hepresearch (unregistered)
Well, that's funny... I was laughed and ridiculed to scorn for saying something similar a week or two ago, supposedly because no real analysts agree with me...
4. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
If you say anything even remotely postive sounding about Apple on PA you will be mocked.
9. hepresearch (unregistered)
I've been just as mocked for saying good things about Android devices, too. I'm convinced that I get a bad reputation here because I'm not a fanboy any more...
14. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
Hepresearch, I have trouble figuring out what side your on at times...I like that about you! You shouldn't have to choose one or the other? Keep doing what you doing dude!
19. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
It's obvious which sie you're on though
27. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
You placed me in the Android box, just because I want more out of iOS and am not willing to settle. But my wallet cracks open more for Apple then any other tech company. But that's cool if you want to think of me as a "Phandroid", it doesn't matter to me.
26. hepresearch (unregistered)
I very rarely have a preferred side, as I like to be independent and reason on things for myself. Thank you for the encouragement, though... it is refreshing to hear from cool people who aren't always wearing the fanboy goggles. It is still fun to wear them once in a while, I suppose, so I don't fault people for standing up for what they like about their preferred platform/manufacturer/carrier/etc... but it is healthy to take them off once in a while and actually think once in a while. Anyways, good to hear from you!
3. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Michael H disagrees with android sales taking a hit. Shocker.
I believe that there's a couple new things happening here. For the first time with a US release of the iPhone there's 3 major carriers offering it instead of one. Also iPhone is now available in all price ranges. Theres free, $99 and then the regular pricing. It's also available in more countries now too. I think we will see unprecedented sales of this phone. From surveys we know there's a high percentage of dissatisfied android users. A lot of them will be making the switch. Apple goes over 30% market share and android drops back into the 30's as well. With iPod and iPad sales Apple widens it's market share lead for iOS.
8. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
1) 3 Major carriers doesn't matter for this study, because this only covers AT&T and Verizon, not Sprint.
2) Edited the last part for clarity. I meant to say that the data certainly suggests that Apple may make a jump in market share, because the 4S will/is selling like gangbusters. I'm just not sure that the data suggests anything "ominous" for Android manufacturers. It's more of a semantic argument for me.
11. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Well Sprint will definitely have an impact on market share though.
17. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
Sprint will have an impact, but given the size of Sprint compared to the competition, especially AT&T and Verizon, that may not amount to much.
20. The-Omega-Man (Posts: 12; Member since: 25 Jun 2011)
This is only relative to the US market. In other markets iphones sell on many carriers in the same country , along with android phones. In many of those markets the iPhone is still being out sold by various Android phones. I don't see anything different happening in the US market than in the other markets.
In either case the competition is a good thing for us consumers.
35. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
There's lots of markets iPhone dominates too
54. remixfa (Posts: 13901; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
according to Q3, there were more markets that the SGS2 beat out the i4 in a head to head sales match. add the rest of android on top of that and... voila!
Ominous nothing. Apple users were waiting for the i4s/i5 announcement. Android users have been waiting for the ICS announcement. I dont see a lot of jumping ship on either side.
7. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
I think Android will take two more minor hit before the bounce back. The iPhone 5 and 5S or whatever will still have that nostalgic connection with SJ, but the iPhones after that might suffer. They're still going to be solid devices but without Steve on the throne, its gonna be a little harder sell then before. And of course with ICS coming out, Android market share won't suffer.
10. hepresearch (unregistered)
I doubt they will let Steve Jobs' memory drop into the shadows... ever. And I doubt that the iPhones post-Jobs will suffer from a lack of simplicity, "elegance", and clout.
12. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
I don't know I'm worried to see how Apple maintains without him. He was a big driving force.
23. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
Gotta agree with taco on this one. It already feels like something was missing when Tim Cook did the presentation for the 4S. It had no luster, no umph! And no one was really excited, until SJ died...then it was like "Oh no! I gotta have it!". I was actually thinking of upgrading my computer now because I don't know if Apple will be the same in the next 3 or 4 years. Who knows, Tim may give us some kick ass devices the likes that SJ could have never imagined, but that's it...Apple is just one big question mark right now.
36. hepresearch (unregistered)
Everything is sort of question mark-ish... our primary methods of understanding trends are based largely on models where all participants are considered to be "rational", but these models, although accurate in many relevant cases, are still very poor over the long-term, and lack precision. As more and more participants think "outside of the box", and adopt asymmetric strategies (as Apple did in 2007 with the original iPhone release), the "rationality" of the system being measured reduces drastically, and we end up with "market disruptions". When "rationality" is sufficiently low (which is not likely to be the case for a while yet, based on current trends), then the system becomes non-linear, chaotic, and difficult to renormalize. So, what looks to us on the macroscale as rational, ordered behavior, is really just a very good balance of chaotic (quantum-like) influences on the microscale. The moment somebody thinks up something revolutionary and unexpected, and then goes "outside the box" by releasing it to the world, the balance is upset for a little while, and we get the proverbial "iPhones" and "Androids" of the mobile industry; however, one will eventually settle into the top spot for a while... until the next big mobile tech disruption breaks upon us.
56. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
1) Tim Cook is not the showman that Jobs was, but that doesn't mean he won't continue the legacy of Jobs well. Apple may just need to have Jony Ive take over announcements, or someone else. I think the company will be fine from a product standpoint, especially since it still has Jony Ive and his team.
2) I'm not saying it definitely happened, but I wouldn't be surprised if sometime down the line we find out that Steve actually died before the iPhone 4S announcement, but Apple withheld the news. That would certainly explain the somber energy of the announcement.
59. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
That exactly what I was thinking too, but thought it was too Conspirisy Theory-ish of me. Even though you cant plan death, I thought the timing was just a bit odd.
My thinking on Apple's future was that Ive was the guy making it all happen behind the scenes away, so what would his death change as far as the product line is concerned. BUT...look at the post-Steve Jobs Apple that almost went under that ran around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to figure out how to compete with MS! Those were bad times. But they say Cook was the one who got his hands dirty with the things SJ didn't want to do, so its not like he isn't a capable leader. Seeing him intro a completely new device, project or whatever would help to establish Cook as "The Man" and earn him a little consumer confidence.
60. snowgator (Posts: 3149; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
That is way too "they never landed on the moon" type thinking for me. Had he died prior to an announcement, wouldn't they have just canceled the formal announcement and just did something informal to kickoff the iPhone4S than? The man was Steve Jobs. You don't get away with burying the lead when it is someone of his stature.
64. Whateverman (Posts: 3150; Member since: 17 May 2009)
LOL! I don't know, snow (Hehe! You see what I just did there?). If I'm Apple and our CEO dies right before the launch of the most anticipated handset in the world is due to be announced, I don't know if I would want that consumer anticipation doused with the sadness of his passing. Wouldn't that just kill all the built up excitement for that new product? By announcing his death a day or two later, you preserve all the excitement for that new product and then you get free advertising also, because the two stories are inevitably going to be linked. That gave them 48 hours of free air time in news coverage as apposed to the 24 hours that his death alone would have gotten.
66. remixfa (Posts: 13901; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
my first guess when i heard the news was that he died on the day of or late the day before the announcement. They just held off telling people because it would have just overshadowed the i4s announcement completely.
13. itzmando (Posts: 109; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
Android will still be increasing its activations and market share, I want to try to like Apple, but sadly their products haven't appealed to me so much anymore. I've owned ipods beginning from 2003 to 2009. Once they changed the look for the current Nano, I was like forget it. Stopped purchasing them, the reason I believe my info is relevant to my opinion on this article is that the iOS interface has grown to be boring, not in customization but in color scheme.
iOS is great, stable OS BUT this statistic can only predict what is to come for these major OS's. We will see how the platforms stack up with there newest features in Q4 result appear.
So, taco50's assumption of android losing market share from iOS is his prediction but no validity can be taken from it. I've been waiting to see the results just to see how each platform is doing.
15. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
You're right its' my assumption. I may be wrong. Time will tell.
24. itzmando (Posts: 109; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
I just do not want to see another user comment a stupid reply to your comments. I am for Android, but I respect all that iOS has to offer since in a way I have seen myself to be a follower for the what 6 yrs. I've owned Apple products, and owned an iphone 3gs so I believe I can comment on this platform results and contribute to this community.
37. hepresearch (unregistered)
You have acknowledged that it is an assumption, that it may be wrong, and that time will tell. I like replies that are blatantly honest and demonstrate humility, even if only for a moment at a time.
46. itzmando (Posts: 109; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
Well, I am tired of android users giving others a bad rep. for just saying "Apple sucks". I do not like there business ethics lately but they are a very profitable company. but I digress that there have been instances where taco50 has created trouble, but so have other android users on the same article.
Hope all parties in these patent courts come to a compromise and focus on customers wants, that way both OS's can still play in the game, or else someone is going to lose. :(
47. hepresearch (unregistered)
I hear ya... there are extremists on both sides, and they tend to have a much greater proclivity to behave badly than many of the casual/moderates here who have a favored affiliation. Futhermore, once in a while they castigate some of those who are trying to represent a less popular third-option in a forum clearly dominated by a bipolar fan-system. For this reason, the more hotly-contested posts are sometimes not a very welcoming place for the faint-of-heart to comment.
52. itzmando (Posts: 109; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)
why would they thumb you down?
Well plan to be proactive on this website since its a tech site rather than a OS specific website, which would most like bash other OSs. but hope I don't have to deal with angry die hard fanboys.
73. hepresearch (unregistered)
... they get angry because they choose to get angry... and don't let the thumbs-down's get to ya... it just means what you are saying is "controversial"
16. bossmt_2 (Posts: 409; Member since: 13 Oct 2009)
There are also a lot of people like myself who would have bought a Bionic or another smartphone but instead are waiting for the Nexus, RAZR, etc
18. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
I don't think so. Not too many people have ever even heard of those phones.
21. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
Read: not too many iPhone users have heard of those phones. The buzz for those phones with non-iPhone users is solid enough.
25. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
Oh yeah, Taco. You gonna read the Steve Jobs bio? I've been tearing through it today. Quite an interesting read. I'd highly recommend it.
33. taco50 (banned) (Posts: 5506; Member since: 08 Oct 2009)
Yes planning on downloading it to iBooks.
34. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
Let me know what you think as you're going through.
38. hepresearch (unregistered)
I am considering reading Steve Jobs' bio as well. I will probably wait until it comes to the local library, but it will be worth it. Can't deny the vibrant mind of that guy...
39. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2604; Member since: 26 May 2011)
Not just his mind, the guy had an amazing life. I'm only up to age 20 right now, and the stuff he had already done is crazy.
42. hepresearch (unregistered)
Well, an amazing mind is generally set alight by incredible insight from experiences in life...
29. The-Omega-Man (Posts: 12; Member since: 25 Jun 2011)
I see tonnes of them! They are damn good looking phones too, when seen in the wild. Those big bright and vibrant screens are hard to miss. When I chat with the owners about them they just gush over them and can not wait to show them off.
22. DigitalBath (Posts: 8; Member since: 20 Oct 2011)
What seems more likely than android users waiting for the iphone 4S is that the android users have been waiting for the Prime, Vigor, and Razor. None have been released yet, thus, they are stillng hanging onto thier upgrades.
28. ardent1 (Posts: 1968; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)
Android is becoming commoditized as the second tier android OEMs eat the first tier's lunch. It's going to become an ugly price war between the android OEMs that want to sell smartphones in the US. When you start seeing android smartphones at prices under $100 in the prepaid market, you start thinking about the big carriers like ATT or Verizon losing customers.
For example, the ATT Thrive Go Phone goes for $179.99 on ATT's website ($149.99 on Amazon) and you can get the LG Optimus V from Virgin Mobile for $129.99 on VM's website (or $99.99 at Target). You can find other examples as well.
Here is the bottomline, practically all the large prepaid cell phones carriers are offering decent to basic android phones with 3.0" to 3.5" touchscreens for $150 or less. Motorola's Triumph with 4.1" still goes for $300 while ZTE's Warp with 4.3" screen is coming in at $250. With better and better android devices entering the prepaid market at say less than $300, it's going to continue to steal customers from ATT or Verizon et al. I understand the 4G argument for the premium phones, but 3G is still pretty good for someone who is getting a smartphone for the first time.
Boost with shrinkage and the ZTE Warp is a pretty deal for the price conscience smartphone buyer.
32. The-Omega-Man (Posts: 12; Member since: 25 Jun 2011)
This is what free market and healthy competition is all about. In the end it is a win for the various consumer demographics.
40. hepresearch (unregistered)
I'm counting on that. As new technology arrives at the top-tier price points, last-generation technology will filter down to the lower price points. I, for one, do not need or want 4G. I don't even care all that much about 3G, as long as I have a solid 3G device before GSM/CDMA get phased out in the US (probably some time in the 2020's?). When today's smartphones become tomorrow's bottom-of-the-barrel bargain feature phones, I'll be a happy camper.
41. Sniggly (Posts: 6400; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)
The problem is though that you don't want too many customers going to prepaid, because those postpaid carriers are the only reason the prepaid are able to exist.
45. hepresearch (unregistered)
They will likely balance out. As prepaid sales increase, and demand for such services and products rise, the prices of prepaid products will also necessarily rise and postpaid equivalents will hold their prices or lower slightly to compete. Likewise, when postpaid services are well within the margin of more customers wallets, then postpaid services will rise in price during times of healthy demand, lowering the prices of prepaid offerings by default. In a system where more people can afford postpaid, the prepaid market is easier to support and prices lower so that more people who cannot afford postpaid can now afford prepaid... however, this is a three-edged sword; in a system where less people are able to afford postpaid, then prepaid will close the disparity with postpaid pricing, and less people will be able to afford either.
55. remixfa (Posts: 13901; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
thats not completely true sniggs.
prepaid customers dont start in a deficit like post paid do. they pay those phones out right, buy them elsewhere, or with a very small starting discount. It is pure money to carriers. Carriers love postpaid because it is garunteed money within a few% of attrition so it makes doing the books a lot easier.
Prepaid however is very attractive because there is no 12-20 month deficit on the price of the device per contract (depending on the device of course).
62. Sniggly (Posts: 6400; Member since: 05 Dec 2009)
I'm referring to the pure prepaid carriers like Virgin, Net10, Boost, and Cricket. Since they don't build their own towers, they rely on the towers built by the contract carriers and the billions they invested in their networks.
67. remixfa (Posts: 13901; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
oh.. well yes, in that case, those prepaid carriers completely exist because of big post paid carriers. :)
70. hepresearch (unregistered)
I know Cricket recently inked a roaming agreement with Sprint in my area, but they do have an area they refer to as "home network coverage" or whatever similar name they give it... it is very small, and I was under the impression that they do have a few of their own towers in those areas (all of them either 1700 or 1900 MHz CDMA). In the event that my perception is wrong, I am curious as to which carrier owns the towers that Cricket considers to be it's "home network"? MetroPCS, by chance?
43. droidcandy13678 (Posts: 9; Member since: 24 Oct 2011)
i think MICHAELHELLER has a crush on TACO. The amount of attention he is giving her is not something normal. Well i may be wrong .....just had a feeling.....eww...combination sounds horrible n dreary too