Top analyst expects Apple Watch shipments in 2023 to decline 15% year-over-year

One of the top Apple analysts – namely, Ming-Chi Kuo has made a somewhat disturbing seven-point prediction about both the current Apple Watch and its coming iteration(s).

Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts that "Apple Watch shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by approximately 15% YoY to 36-38 million units". It’s not clear where he’s getting the data from to claim that, nor if he is referring to calendar year 2023 or Apple's fiscal year 2023 (their fiscal year ends on September 30) – via AppleInsider.

Here’s the full seven-point prophecy from Kuo:

• The 2024 new Apple Watch will not adopt Micro LED.
• The 2025 new Apple Watch will likely use Micro LED, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s postponed to 2026.
• Apple Watch shipments in 2023 are expected to decline by approximately 15% YoY to 36–38 million units.
• The 2024 new Apple Watch will unlikely have significant innovative experiences.
• The highly anticipated blood glucose monitoring feature won’t happen in 2024 and possibly not in 2025.
• The Apple Watch is a classic example of a product that succeeded through repositioning. However, based on current shipment momentum, it may need to be repositioned again if there’s an unfortunate year-over-year decline again in 2024.
• By integrating Vision Pro with the Apple Watch, I believe it can create an unparalleled and innovative health management experience to drive shipment momentum for both products further.

As suggested by AppleInsider, Kuo is referring to the fashion-first mantra that the company had at Apple Watch’s launch. Back then when they introduced the device, the Apple Watch tilted slightly more to the status of a posh fashion accessory from a marketing point of view. Then the messaging changed quickly and ever since the Cupertino giant presents the timepieces as health and fitness assistants.