Even if the AirPods Pro 3 come out this year, Apple's earbuds sales are unlikely to continue growing
The global wireless earbuds market has apparently reached its "maturity" point, possibly leading to a sales slump for many top vendors including Apple this year.
Following years and years of rapid growth, the global wireless earbuds market has reportedly reached its "maturity" phase, which means the sales numbers of many top vendors are likely to hit a stagnation point in 2025.
That includes the industry's biggest name of them all, which is expected (by some insiders) to release a highly anticipated AirPods Pro 3 product at some point this year. But even if that will end up happening (which is by no means a guarantee right now), the undoubtedly high price tag of Apple's next super-premium earbuds is likely to make it difficult for the company to boost its overall shipment figures compared to 2024.
Instead, Counterpoint Research analysts believe Apple's market share could drop from 22 percent last year to 21 percent at the end of this year on the back of a weirdly specific 0.4 percent decline in global volumes. 21 percent, of course, will still be enough to keep all other vendors at bay, starting with Xiaomi and Samsung.
That's a teeny-tiny projected decline for Apple and a pretty impressive jump for Xiaomi. | Image Credit - Counterpoint Research
Xiaomi, mind you, is expected to enjoy the largest year-on-year growth in TWS (true wireless stereo) sales among the world's top five vendors, which should help the Chinese tech giant consolidate its silver medal position in this market and expand its lead over bronze medalist boAt.
That's an Indian brand very few consumers outside its homeland are likely to be familiar with, which has known incredible domestic growth over the last couple of years thanks primarily to ultra-affordable models. But as the company's "core audience" of first-time users has been "primarily captured", boAt's numbers are projected to start shrinking this year, thus increasing Samsung and JBL's hopes of cracking the global podium soon enough.
What is your favorite wireless earbuds brand?
Apple
77.03%
Samsung
4.73%
Xiaomi
2.03%
JBL
2.03%
boAt
1.35%
None of the above
10.81%
I don't like wireless earbuds
2.03%
Both Samsung and JBL are likely to boost their 2025 volumes compared to 2024's figures, although it kind of feels like the ever-expanding Galaxy Buds portfolio should be performing a little better.
All in all, Counterpoint expects around 3 percent more wireless earbuds to be sold worldwide this year compared to the last, which sounds like the textbook definition of marginal growth. Interestingly, Apple could drive a bigger jump for the industry on the whole in 2027 if the "standard" AirPods get an upgrade and a "new ANC-equipped version" also comes out by the end of next year. That seems unlikely to me, but then again, I'm not an analyst, market researcher, pundit, or insider.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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