The best predictions for 2013: 1 billion smartphones shipped, but the PC not dead yet

The best predictions for 2013: 1 billion smartphones shipped, but the PC not dead yet
Normally, we don't give a lot of respect to analysts, because more often than not, they just say something that is common sense, or easily guessed. But, we have to give credit where it is due, because Deloitte has released its TMT (technology, media, & telecommunications) Predictions for 2013, and these are some of the most well thought out predictions we've seen in a while. 

The Deloitte analysts do predict some relatively easy stuff, like that there will be 1 billion smartphone shipments in 2013, but they also go into amazing depth on a number of topics, and have a very interesting explanation on why the PC isn't dead yet. We won't spoil the whole thing, but according to Deloitte, the PC isn't going anywhere and hasn't been, but we've just been looking at the wrong metrics. Sales numbers aren't the key, but rather usage numbers

On the mobile side, Deloitte says that not only will there be 1 billion smartphone shipments in 2013, but the install base for smartphones will rise to 2 billion. Of course, the number of people who don't use their smartphones any differently than they would a feature phone is also set to rise. Additionally, they say that "mobile advertising" will be split into "smartphone advertising" and "tablet advertising", and maybe the most interesting mobile prediction is that mobile carriers will begin offering "All-you-can-app" plans. This means that users will pay a flat rate for unlimited everything, but only have access to a certain set of apps, and plans will be cheaper for it. 

With mobile spectrum, Deloitte expects that LTE will have a big year (no surprise there,) but also that the troubles surrounding mobile spectrum will get worse before it gets better. Smartphones and tablets will be adopted so quickly, and usage on mobile devices will rise so much that bandwidth capabilities just won't be able to keep up. And, if nothing is done about the problem, "by 2014 the US alone may suffer a 275 MHz spectral 'deficit'", which could lead to a scene reminiscent of the early days of dial-up internet, where peak times may see "two to three times as many failed attempts to connect, three to four times as many dropped calls or frozen web browsing, and both 3G and 4G speeds 50-90 percent lower than expected."

We really have to suggest that you dig in to the full predictions PDF, because there are a lot of really good things in there outside of the mobile sphere, like predictions on password security, crowdfunding, 4k TVs, and a lot more. Possibly the reason we like this one so much is that Deloitte isn't trying to prove how smart they are (as most analysts are), but rather "to catalyze debate around significant developments that may require companies or governments to respond." More simply put, they just want to start a conversation, and that's something we can definitely get behind.



1. wendygarett unregistered

Pc and lappy won't dead just like that, and my avatar can tell you that :)

20. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

Don't know about your avatar, but yes, agreed that PC's won't die like analysts predict. There are something you can do on a PC that you can't do on a phone or a tablet...and get the real satisfaction of getting a job done with finesse... At the end of the day, most people would want to get away from the mini devices (not hate them) and sit on a 'Desk' working at the 'Top' (or lap-top) i do.

21. wendygarett unregistered

You know what's on my avatar, it just you refuse to know it :)

22. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

'Ignore' would be the word you want to say...but no i'm not ignoring your avatar. I'm just not sure it means what you want to say. I mean, it doesn't reflect the statement you're giving about PC's not's just someone hugging an iMac. But it does show one thing, you love Apple more that your partner, lol.

23. wendygarett unregistered

I'm hugging the lappy and tablets with an Apple logo :p

24. darac

Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

PC won't die, it will just turn into a tablet - laptop hybrid

2. blackice214

Posts: 168; Member since: Jan 03, 2013

Apple should make a tablet with full Mac OSX I would buy that in a heartbeat, im getting tired of carrying my macbook around college.

9. Droid_X_Doug

Posts: 5993; Member since: Dec 22, 2010

MS Surface Pro 4U? Apple frowns on people doing things with its OSs that it doesn't do....

3. phil2n

Posts: 519; Member since: Apr 30, 2012

Respect for Deloitte. The fact that i still love my HP Spectre XT and I often use it over my Lumia 800

7. jsdechavez

Posts: 810; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

Comparing ultrabook over a smartphone? You kidding.

14. phil2n

Posts: 519; Member since: Apr 30, 2012

I'm not comparing my phone and my lappy, i just want to say that i have a lot of time for my lappy more than my phone. I'm talking about the usage time not the way how I used it.

25. darac

Posts: 2156; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

Lumia 800? That's just a phone. Come back when you try some true high end Android

4. MeoCao unregistered

The PC will not die, but there will be a different kind of PC: Linux and Android will challenge Windows and push for explosion of PC innovation.

6. wendygarett unregistered

I'm sorry to say that most user will get used of Windows... You cannot ran away from Microsoft office that most of us get used to, and Microsoft paint for screenshot... just like we cannot ran away from Google search engine... The only alternative for ms office is the one you can found from rim playbook... Even Apple iWork stand no chance to compare with... Just be honest, your pc is running Windows right?

8. jsdechavez

Posts: 810; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

Agree Wendy. Much like the Macs will continue to be niche devices in developing/3rd world countries. Microsoft Windows will live on.

10. wendygarett unregistered

The reason I love android is because of Google, not Linux... Eventhough We cannot deny that Linux made the most advanced os, however, advanced os won't help you much without the 3rd party support... Will you accept Linux that has lack of Google support? Lack of facebook support? And gaming support? And now, most powerful 3rd party for platform is APPS!!! When the platform has lack of developers support will immediately vanish, simple as that...

15. MeoCao unregistered

Few use original Linux, they use Ubuntu, Red Hat or Android all based on Linux. Linux is like the land upon it we can build huge buildings. We all see the buildings but not many think about the land, but w/o it there are no buildings.

11. MeoCao unregistered

Windows will not go anywhere nor should it. But the netbook proved that there is market for low cost PC that can do most basic tasks not more, You know Windows+Office are big and expensive, Intel chips are expensive as well and very power inefficient. Mobile chips are so powerful now and they can be used on low cost PCs that run Android and supported by huge Android ecosystem with a lot of good and free or cheap stuffs. Chrome is making progress but I think Android is the future of low cost PC.

13. wendygarett unregistered

Kinda agree that... But android smartphone is enough for me... Learn to diversify yourself mate lol

17. MeoCao unregistered

The point is you should know about the thing, through using it is a good way, but we can read about it as well. I criticize Windows, WP, iOS b-c I know about them, And I say what I think and not out of fear being thumbed down :)

18. wendygarett unregistered

Now I'm starting to respect you even more... I'll give you green thumb each lol

19. MeoCao unregistered

tks Wendy lol

5. jsdechavez

Posts: 810; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

The PC won't die. I can't imagine these BPO's work with underpowered tablets.. ugh. Abominable! These tablets are merely connected entertainment devices. Don't push it.

12. AhmadAlsayegh

Posts: 326; Member since: Jul 18, 2011

I have done a research on the PC and laptop market for my business, and in 2011~2012, the laptop market dropped only 1%, meanwhile the desktop market was not effected. I keep insisting when talking to people about this issue is that we are comparing x86 to ARM, it is like comparing potatoes to tomatoes, two different products for two different purposes, ARM fastest chips are being compared to Intel's slowest is a good paper on that: in other words, Intel will keep pushing, AMD will keep pushing and ARM will keep pushing....IMHO untill Intel or AMD f**k up real bad, they will be way ahead of ARM in terms of performance

16. gaurang

Posts: 94; Member since: Nov 16, 2012

Its good that tablets and smartphones are evolving...but PC will never die...these smartphones and tablets are just entertainment devices(except the hybrid w8 devices)...if one wants to do serious professional work its obvious a powerful machine is required...there ipads and ipods and iPhones and galaxies are just media consumption sure some work can be done...but not up to the scale of pcs.. And these phones and tablets rely on PC for their apps to be build.... I see dual core....quad core...and now octa core...but still these devices cannot do real powerful processing....its the size of the device which obstructs the power and the excessive battery drain....

29. phonemirer

Posts: 111; Member since: Dec 07, 2012

also remember the 8gb ram, the around 15 inch screen, more comfortable browsing, and no blur when scrolling (lumia 920 avoids this neg w puremotion)

26. speckledapple

Posts: 902; Member since: Sep 29, 2011

I am about tired of carriers trying to limit because they were unable to plan properly in the future and just want to be greedy now.

27. lubba

Posts: 1313; Member since: Jan 17, 2011

They'll buy tablets like crazy because they're so popular and some are dirt cheap. At the end of the day, they'll run to their 5-6 year old PC or laptop for their productivity needs. And when PC and laptop slowly dies, they'll all run to w8 and w8 tabs. By then, all their brains will click. They'll realize MS has made their lives, which is based on popularity and following others, much easier with w8, a PC/tab all in one. They'll wanna buy an RT tab but they'll listen to the deceptive tech blogs, sites, and pundits, like the verge or PA. But once they start using it, and learning all the ins and outs, they'll love it. They realize that every product comes with a learning curve. Some learn quick, others take longer. What the tech pundits don't realize, is that not every house has cable or even internet. So they'll down play w8. Either way w8 and beyond is the future.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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