Strong cycle ahead for the Apple iPhone says fresh report

Strong cycle ahead for the Apple iPhone says fresh report
Loup Ventures is known for its research and the venture capital firm decided to crunch some numbers in an effort to see whether the just-released 2019 Apple iPhone models got off to a good start. This year, Apple focused on a trio of features starting with the camera. The company added a new ultra-wide-angle camera to both the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro versions, introduced Night mode allowing users to snap viewable photos under low-light conditions, and will add Deep Fusion (via a software update) to produce sharper photos with less noise thanks to AI. Battery life has been greatly improved with the iPhone 11 battery offering as much as an additional hour of power over the iPhone XR. The iPhone 11 Pro will run up to four hours longer on a charge than the iPhone XS, while the iPhone 11 Pro Max provides up to five hours of additional battery life compared to the iPhone XS Max. And while the iPhone 11 can be submerged to a depth of 6 and a half feet for up to 30 minutes, the iPhone 11 Pro models can be held underwater to a depth of 13 feet for the same time period.

While the consensus was expecting the launch day lines around the Apple Stores to be short and short-lived, Loup Ventures found that the opposite was true. In its research report, Loup Ventures noted that it had "observed longer than expected lines that persisted throughout the day." In fact, the firm's research indicated that the line at the just reopened Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City was 89% longer than the ones seen for the launches of the iPhone XS series and iPhone XR combined last year. Loup Ventures also took count of the lines at five Apple Stores in the Minneapolis metro area and found them to be 20% longer than the ones seen during 2018's launch day.

Loup Ventures' research shows that longer lines on launch day usually forecast a strong iPhone sales cycle ahead


The venture capital firm had expected 70% of those on line to buy a more expensive iPhone 11 Pro model, which makes sense since those who wait for hours to buy an iPhone are usually Apple fanatics who are willing to spend more on the higher-end models. But according to the report, an even larger number of those on line-82%-opted to buy one of the more expensive phones. Breaking down the data some more, 54% of those buying an iPhone 11 Pro purchased the top-of-the-line iPhone 11 Pro Max. That was down from the 70% that purchased the larger-screened iPhone XS Max last year and brought the percentage back down toward the historical average. As far as storage is concerned, only 13% of those waiting on line purchased an iPhone with the largest amount of native storage (256GB for iPhone 11, 512GB for the iPhone 11 Pro). 34% bought a new iPhone sporting the base amount of storage (64GB) while the majority ended up selecting a model in the middle (128GB for iPhone 11, 256GB for iPhone 11 Pro). Loup Ventures notes that even though buyers are taking home the more expensive iPhone 11 Pro models, the 7% drop in price for the iPhone 11 will result in a 2% decline in the Average Selling Price (ASP) of the iPhone for the current cycle.


And speaking about the current cycle, the bottom line here is that according to Loup Ventures' research, the tone of the cycle is set on launch day. Long lines and crowded Apple Stores typically forecast a strong year for the latest iPhone models. Considering how low expectations were for the 2019 iPhones, things might turn out to be much better than expected for the company. Does this mean that Apple will record huge profits from iPhone sales this year? Well, there is the matter of the 25% import tax that takes effect on December 15th in the U.S. The new iPhone models will be affected and if Apple decides to eat the additional cost itself, that could obviously reduce Apple's profit margins. And as unstable as the relationship between the U.S. and China is right now, that 25% tax could go higher at a moment's notice.


Still, Apple and CEO Tim Cook have to be pleased. The new iPhone models were written off as soon as the first renders surfaced showing the square camera modules. However, the cameras look much better in person. And by improving the camera, battery and water resistance Apple enhanced three customer pain points with this year's devices. That appears to be enough to get iPhone users upgrading in number to the newest handsets.

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38 Comments

1. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 708; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

I am happy for everybody purchasing the new iPhones. I won’t upgrade this year however since I wait for a notchless design and a 120hz screen.

2. Mike88

Posts: 438; Member since: Mar 05, 2019

Do you mean notchless? Well not on expense of FaceID

6. RoryBreaker

Posts: 246; Member since: Oct 11, 2015

So basically you may never by another iphone.

7. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 708; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

I expect Apple to remove the notch and to offer 120hz next year.

9. scarface21173

Posts: 701; Member since: Aug 17, 2014

You wont get both, if i was a betting man i would say 120hz screen.

11. AngelicusMaximus

Posts: 753; Member since: Dec 20, 2017

I'd say you're expecting too much.

19. darkkjedii

Posts: 31530; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

It was said, it would be a 3 year super cycle for the design, then a change. I can see going notchless, and a larger screen size.

13. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 708; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

The question is when Apple‘s current design cycle will end. Apple introduced the notch design 3 years after the iPhone 6 design. I hope that Apple will end the notch design 3 years after its introduction. Well, latest after 4 years there will be a new design. So latest in 2021 the notch will be gone and we’ll see under display camera. Maybe Touch ID will come back if Apple can’t put Face ID under the screen.

22. rkoforever90

Posts: 474; Member since: Dec 03, 2011

Not going to happen i dont think even samsung is going to have notchless under screen camera with 120HZ display next year, probably some chinese phones like oopo will have it next year . The best that can happen is reduction of size of notch and at the best a 90HZ display

25. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 708; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

If you are right and the notch will stay for another year, Apple will most likely not apply any changes to the notch. Reason: Why investing so much money into that change if you stop the design just one year later and go notchless. If Apple planned to make the notch smaller across the design lifespan of this design cycle, they would have done that with iPhone 11.

27. vincelongman

Posts: 5746; Member since: Feb 10, 2013

And we better get 6GB of RAM 4GB isn't enough for $700 Apps have to reload after using the camera

28. Well-Manicured-Man

Posts: 708; Member since: Jun 16, 2015

I absolutely agree with that one. The base storage and ram is not enough anymore and outdated. Apple is very good in making certain parts of their phones highly modern while leaving other parts completely outdated. I guess they really want to give you a „good“ reason to update yearly.

3. Subie

Posts: 2415; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

"longer lines on launch day usually forecast a strong iPhone sales cycle" Wait, didn't I just read that lines world wide were shorter nowadays then they used to be in a previous article here. I'll link to that article below. "just reopened Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City was 89% longer than the ones seen for the launches of the iPhone XS series and iPhone XR combined last year" How is it possible that they were open last year when that same article I read earlier said that the Fifth avenue store in NY was closed for TWO years due to renovations... Link below. Here is a quote from that article regarding that location: "Tim Cook who was at the location to celebrate the re-opening of the location after a two-year renovation" Can you explain the contradictions here as both articles were written by you Alan? Here's that link -https://www.phonearena.com/news/lines-return-to-Apple-Stores-on-iPhone-release-day_id119112

4. lyndon420

Posts: 6868; Member since: Jul 11, 2012

Prepare to be moderated...

8. Subie

Posts: 2415; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

Why would that post get moderated? I'm not running down anyone or being derogatory. I'm just asking for clarification based on what I've read. In a civil manner too IMO.

10. scarface21173

Posts: 701; Member since: Aug 17, 2014

i agree

35. oldskool50 unregistered

Trust. It doesn't even matter. I have a very long email where I went back and forth with a mod on him harassing me, when I made a post that had no bad words, no name calling. I simply listed basically all the things that are bad about the iPhone vs it's price, and they deleted the post. Talking about i was trolling. I simply flat out told him; just because PA is in another country; doesn't mean you can't be sued. Because the real trolls never need modded, never get banned and never get limited and I have plenty of screenshots to prove it. if you speak against their narrative, then they will badger you with email threats.

40. ivan.k

Posts: 36; Member since: Jan 29, 2014

@oldsckool50 - as I told you, we have a record of all your comments (moderated or not), so you can talk as much as you want, but you are not a victim. After I gave you examples of how you exaggerate thing, why you didn't say anything? Maybe because things are not as you represent them...

20. Alan01

Posts: 640; Member since: Mar 21, 2012

Sure. Apple shut the actual "Cube" store and opened another interim location nearby for the two years. As for the difference in the lines, what I wrote was "the days of incredibly long lines wrapping around Apple Stores worldwide are over." And that is true. But there are still certain areas where the Apple name still has magic. The lines remain shorter but there are lines. Regards, Alan

21. Subie

Posts: 2415; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

Thanks for the reply Alan. Cheers!

5. Joosty

Posts: 487; Member since: Mar 14, 2013

I can confirm, I saw a huge line of people waiting at a local mall.

15. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1462; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

And that's confirmation of what exactly?

18. Joosty

Posts: 487; Member since: Mar 14, 2013

Did you read the article? There's real demand for this release. Contrary to what was stated last week of weak demand.

26. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1462; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

Yeah because none of that has to do with the lower price of the iPhone 11 that goes up to$800 in December... Apple knows demand will drop hard then. I wouldn't start celebrating just yet. Apple's trying hard to boost its sales in markets where it has a strong base like the USA and Japan. They know if their sales continue to drop, their services will start to suffer.

12. midan

Posts: 3100; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Oldskool50, what is happening?!?!?!? According to you sales going to be below 150 million for this year.

36. oldskool50 unregistered

just because there is "some" demand, doesn't mean their will be an increase in sales bruh. There was demand on the XR too, didn't stop Apple from slipping down to 190M total sales of 7 selling iPhone models...did it? Ai guess ANY demand is good for you. Still standing behind my claim regardlessof what happens. iPhone sales will continue to drop, to where the $1000+ models will not be the biggest sellers. Which is why the XR a.k.a iPhone 11, was dropped in price by $50. With cheaper higher sales, means lower ASP. No more $700+ ASP for Apple key watching. The next thing we will here is Apple cutting production just a month after release, just like we saw with the 7, the 8 and the X and the XS models. It's not gonna end Midan, no matter what you claim.

37. oldskool50 unregistered

And since you wanna call me out. Look at the numbers. The highest recorded number of folks in line in NY, was almost 1900. Now it is less than 1/3rd that number. Mall of American, had 216 at it's peak. Now that number is 78. Apple has a store on North Michigan Ave in Chicago. They closed the original location at Huron/Michigan, and moved it to the Chicago River and Michigan, which is a 1/2 mile south. The original location once had a line all the way around the block. The day the newer location opened, theer was a crowd of pver 1000+ on the plaza as Tim Cook was here to cut the ribbon. There hasn't been any lines at all since that day 2 years ago. Adding...look at all the iPhone deals. trading in an iPhone from a 7 or above, gets you anywhere from $300-600 of the price, regardless of which model you buy. All 4 major carriers and some here not so major, are giving away the iPhone if you switch to them. So many desperate deals. You know, the deals you all criticized Android for having saying they needed them to outsell the iPhone, which wasn't true. Now carriers are doing deals they have never done on Android phones. VZW gave me $400 each to trade in my Note 8's for the 9, which was a good deal since it was Note 9 BOGO. So I got the 512GB for me and 128Gb for the wife which is more than enough for her. But right now, if I took my Note 9 in and traded it for an iPhone 11 Pro Max, VZW offering $600. T-mobile ill take any iPhone 7 or above regardless of condition, as long as it powers on. It can have a broken glass, dents or whatever. as long as it powers on you can get a free iPhone 11. So yeah such deals will create demand. Every retailer is offering at least $100 for the price. This includes Boost and metroPCS. The carriers and retailers running these deals are trying to increase sales. I don't have a problem with it. Do what you can to sell yoru stock. But even though Apple had early demand last year, it didn't stop them from dropping from 215M down to 190M. That is a lose in case you can't count, of 25M devices in just one year. What happens if they lose another 25M-30M Midan? That could be down to 160M which would put them very close to my own prediction. Why you think Apple is no longer reporting sales? Because they are dropping. Believe whatever demand hype you want. There is always demand for the first few days. How long will it last? if the last 3 years is a scope, it last literally a month.

17. emcdonald75

Posts: 166; Member since: Nov 07, 2012

At this point, I just want USB Type-C support, a better screen resolution and 4x4 MIMO LTE for the non-Pro iPhone. Also, more storage space for base model. Apple can start the price at $749 if a fast charger is included with the non-Pro model.

23. Elvis358

Posts: 243; Member since: Mar 25, 2018

Lol just week ago everyone said that the sales will be week and terrible XD!

29. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2272; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

I’m impressed with the camera quality of iPhone Pro, however I am waiting for next year. I will be retuning the iPhone Pro Max. The biggest upgrade for me on my XS Max is iOS13! Going from iOS12.4.1 to 13 was the biggest upgrade in terms of overall experience. Everything else is the same. XS Max is super snappy as I won’t miss the 20% increase in speed. Battery life is not a big deal as I plan on replacing the battery for $69+tax at Apple by the end of this year to improve the battery life (I have no Apple Care+). My peak performance on my battery shows 93%. Overall, this upgrade is meant for 5/SE/6/7/8/X owners. Can’t wait for Apple’s response to the competition for 2020! My wishlist for 2020 iPhone 12 Pro Max: - 6.8”-7” size - Apple Pencil embedded in phone and interchangeable to used as Apple TV remote - 8GB DDR6 RAM to eliminate horrible RAM management issues from 11 Pro and XS Max - 40 watt fast charging from 0-50% in 15 mins Bilateral “Fast Charging” and no trickle charging Samsung solution - ToF pop up camera camera FaceID. Yes OnePlus I love you. - Higher MP in quad camera setup (Super Ultra wide) - Night Mode for Ultra wide and Super Ultra Wide - liquid cooling phone design - A14X, 5nm design to improve the energy efficiency up to 40-50%. IPhone 12 gets A14, while iPhone 12 Pro and Max with liquid cool design get the A14X - Storage sizes 128, 512, 1TB - 120hz, promotion OLED Super Retina Display - 70% GPU performance over iPhone 11 I would buy this phone even if it started at $1499. Dream come true...! No phone could touch this in 2 years.

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