Analyst forecasts disappointing sales for the Apple iPhone 11 series

Analyst forecasts disappointing sales for the Apple iPhone 11 series
The 2019 Apple iPhone models could be announced in just two months. We expect to see subtle differences in the dimensions of the new handsets to accommodate the larger batteries needed to help power the new reverse wireless charging feature that the new units might offer. First introduced on the Huawei Mate 20 Pro, and known as PowerShare on the Samsung Galaxy S10 series, reverse wireless charging will allow an iPhone 11 owner to use the back of the handset as a wireless charging pad to charge the AirPods carrying case, an Apple Watch and a compatible phone (not at the same time). But the battery of the host phone gives up the power it shares, which explains why larger capacity batteries are expected inside the 2019 iPhones.

Another change, this one less subtle, brings a controversial square camera module to the upper left corner of the new iPhones' rear panels. The module on the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Max will house three cameras while the one on the iPhone 11R will contain a pair of sensors. The design is controversial because, well, many consider it to be jarring and ugly. Renders of the new iPhones and accessories dovetail with this new look, which will also be used on the Google Pixel 4 and Pixel 4 XL.


The 2018 iPhones have been struggling at the cash register and according to Seeking Alpha, we should see more of the same with the new units. Rosenblatt Securities analyst Jun Zhang told clients today that sales of the 2019 models will be disappointing and he also sees the recent growth in iPad sales slowing over the second half of 2019. For the company's fiscal second quarter, which ran from January through March of this year, iPad revenue surprisingly rose 22% year-over-year to $4.87 billion. The tablet market has been weak and the iPad was not exempt. However, the new iPad Pro models launched late last year and the two new tablets released this past March have breathed some life into the unit.

Two of the three iPhone models expected next year will support 5G connectivity


The analyst notes that sales of other Apple devices like the HomePod, AirPod, and Apple Watch don't contribute enough to the company's revenue to help right the ship. Even Apple's Services unit, its second largest and most profitable, won't stop the bleeding Zhang says. Apple has been looking to double the revenue of this key division from $25 billion in 2016 to $50 billion by next year. During its fiscal second quarter, the division snagged $11.45 billion in sales. The focus on the Services unit is a response to the decline in iPhone shipments seen since the peak year of 2015 when 231.22 million units were delivered worldwide. For fiscal 2018, Apple shipped 217.72 million handsets globally. Sales of the iPhone have been hurt by what has been perceived to be a lack of innovation on Apple's part, higher pricing, and less expensive full-featured Android phones. The OnePlus 7 Pro would be a good example of the latter. But Apple has such a large number of active units that the plan is to sell recurring monthly subscriptions (like Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade) to iPhone owners. The division also includes the App Store, AppleCare, iTunes and iCloud.


The securities firm sees "fundamental deterioration" in Apple's earnings over the next 6 to 12 months and has dropped its rating on the company's stock from "Hold" to "Sell."  Zhang has a $150 target price on the stock, a decline of 25% from the shares' current valuation of nearly $200.

Next year's models will be redesigned, according to reliable TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo expects three models in 2020, two of them with 5G support. The "Max" model will be equipped with a slightly larger 6.7-inch display while the standard unit will have a smaller 5.4-inch screen. These two phones will be 5G enabled unlike the more affordable 2020 iPhone, which will feature 4G LTE connectivity only. The latter model will continue to sport a 6.1-inch display according to Kuo.

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35 Comments

1. monkeyb

Posts: 413; Member since: Jan 17, 2018

Analysts always give 2 different predictions which contradict each other with personal opinions attached to them. Is Apple losing sales because of the price tag? I dont think so. Many Android phones are also priced above $900. Apple is losing sales because the hardware is not exciting and the design is being repeated for many years. Who knows. Maybe they will give an amazing camera along with few surprises this year in hardware which might help sales.

5. handsomparis

Posts: 126; Member since: Jun 11, 2015

Agree

25. sgodsell

Posts: 7450; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

The real problem is Apple has pumped up their stock again (buyback) to the tune of 75 billion, which is supposed to stabilize their stock and make their shareholders happy. Yet Apples stock is still dropping. That's definitely not a good sign. No wonder why it's a sell now.

9. wickedwilly

Posts: 723; Member since: Sep 19, 2018

"Apple is losing sales because the hardware is not exciting and the design is being repeated for many years." True but they increase the price despite this, that is one of the problems. If Apple launched a class leading and a good new design they may be able to support the price they ask. The Android phones asking 900US and more offer a better package for the price. This is one reason why phones like the S10 are selling well and iPhones sales are declining.

13. Mike88

Posts: 435; Member since: Mar 05, 2019

You know S10 can never manage to sell even half of iPhone X or XS sold by now

17. TBomb

Posts: 1571; Member since: Dec 28, 2012

You know the iPhone doesn't have to compete with other OEMs on the same OS Nobody cares about sales numbers.

19. iloveapps

Posts: 855; Member since: Mar 21, 2019

Then why Samsung mobile always had a declining profit if it is selling well. Maybe you should say that S10 sells a little more than S9 but won’t sell as much as any iPhone models

23. wickedwilly

Posts: 723; Member since: Sep 19, 2018

As TBomb correctly points out there is no competition in the IOS market. The facts are the S10 is outselling its direct predecessor significantly, while the iPhone 10s and 10s plus are selling far less.

10. Guaire

Posts: 890; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

What did you expect? Same prediction from ALL analysts? Of course there will be different opinions. Overwhelming majority of Android phones are much cheaper than comparable Apple devices. Even Samsung S10+ cost half as much iPhone XS Max in my country. I bet Samsung is doing this competitive local pricing in many other countries. Not to mention Chinese flagships, not to mention other value for money flagships from like Asus. Repeating design was never a problem for Apple at the past. In fact they used same design 4 years straight and never slowed down. XS design is still relatively fresh moreover radically different from old Apple designs. Not that just their retail prices are high. Their repair prices are flat out insane. If an user ever break their handset's glass back they are f****d. And their excuse for this price is beyond ridiculous. Everybody else out there designing phones doesn't require to replace all internal hardware if they need to replace back glass. And that so called insurance looks more like extortion.

15. monkeyb

Posts: 413; Member since: Jan 17, 2018

@Guaire: "value for money flagships". See this is the point you do not understand. We simply cannot compare value for money between Apple And Android devices. A lot of people who buy an iPhone or want to buy one just want an iPhone. They do not care if Samsung is $100 cheaper or Pixel has a better camera. A lot of people do not mind spending as long as Apple gives them something great. Apple can never compete with Chinese flagships in India or China. The mindset and spending capacity of the majority of people in these countries are completely different than in the US. This may also be true in many other countries.

18. Guaire

Posts: 890; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

You are the one bringing Android prices. You suggested Android prices are comparable to Apple prices which was a fallacy. Only a small fraction of Android handsets are close to Apple price wise. That way you are tried to justify Apple's prices which is easily proved wrong considered Apple's past sales. My point was your point is almost totally wrong. Whether or not Apple users can consider Android phones are totally irrelevant here. Try to explain again. Why Apple is losing sales. Repeated design can't be the reason. They selled same exact design from iPhone 6 to iPhone 8s and never slowed down. Current iPhone line actually a fresh design, but their sales in decline. So you can't blame the repeated design. You can't also blame the not exciting hardware IMO, since old iPhones also lack in that department too. In fact they implemented some "new" hardware inside new iPhones despite the old iPhones. When they are selling like hot cakes they lack OLED screens, even optional fast charging, wireless charging so on. What exactly iPhones had at those times?

24. monkeyb

Posts: 413; Member since: Jan 17, 2018

"They selled same exact design from iPhone 6 to iPhone 8s and never slowed down." - Okay. I might be wrong and every tech article might be wrong then. Iphone 6 was Apple's best selling phone and I think its purely because of the new form factors, i.e larger size that everyone wanted. Please do a quick search and you shall see that sales of 7 or 8 were much lower than 6.

31. Guaire

Posts: 890; Member since: Oct 15, 2014

14. Mike88

Posts: 435; Member since: Mar 05, 2019

I will definitely buy one, I love my iPhone XS and already excited for the next iPhone

16. monkeyb

Posts: 413; Member since: Jan 17, 2018

I love my iPhone 7 as well and I am super excited about this year's phones. They seem to be addressing the 2 biggest pain points in my opinion. The triple camera and the battery (looking at the new logic board leak). I might finally upgrade my faithful iP7 :).

30. oldskool50 unregistered

Many Androids are above $1000 and yes they sell. But not in the same number as lower priced phones. Even the S and Note have suffered sales due to it's new price. To even sit here an act like price has no play in sales drops, makes you look totally ignorant to the fact. Outside the US where countries don't have a system of debt, where you have to buy the phone upfront, and you think in countries where many incomwsbare less than $500USD, and you think they can afford to pay $1000+ for a phone? The XS Max is as much as $2000 in some places. You cannot change a fact dude.

2. User123456789

Posts: 1008; Member since: Feb 22, 2019

11r = 10r + new cpu/gpu + 52mm camera Review score = 9.5

3. Fred3

Posts: 561; Member since: Jan 16, 2018

Off topic but I just realized i didn't see a post about the MacBook Pro catches fire days before Apple's battery recall program....interesting

4. midan

Posts: 3008; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Wonder why.. what other Mac news you’ve seen here? ;) or PC news? Maybe you haven’t noticed, but this site mostly writes about mobile devices and stuff related to those.

8. Fred3

Posts: 561; Member since: Jan 16, 2018

Good question... but.. if you were to scroll through the history or even search through the News & Articles you would see that mobile devices and stuff related are not the only things that was talked about, written or reported on here. And yes, the MacBook Pro was one of them. So yes i've seen Mac and PC news and articles on here. It's ok , at least you tried..... :)

12. lyndon420

Posts: 6824; Member since: Jul 11, 2012

Good point. PA did mention a $999 monitor stand awhile back...and Samsung smart tv's etc... Maybe they're holding off on this news hoping that it's inflated or incorrect... can't shine a bad light on Apple until everyone else is reporting it. /s

27. mackan84

Posts: 553; Member since: Feb 13, 2014

He actually said “mostly” so if it’s hard to comprehend I’ll translate: it’s MOSTLY mobile devices and news surrounded that on PA. I went to 9to5mac and had to scroll through about 30 different articles related to Mac before finding the one about a burning MacBook. They need to expand here before reporting all those articles as well...

28. Polaris1983

Posts: 33; Member since: May 22, 2019

Apple recently has had to do major hardware spec upgrades and OS updates after they got hit in the wallet. Google recently also got hit too reading it on CNBC. Perhaps now they will listen and care again about making a solid OS for android users as Apple is now doing that to compete here, but i'm not holding my breath on google giving long term support to OEM Android users for now as even I saw the difference after upgrading my comcast speeds to wifi 6 capable 10 gigabit speeds now as Android on my Razer 2 OEM device shows just how much Android OS needs attention for fixes and timely OEM support for security patches and overall yearly OS updates as mobile phones even at 500 dollars are expensive vs a 30 dollar landline that just works for taking and making phone calls without the tablet on it found on the pixel slate or even iPadOS now as the one the upsides of buying an apple mobile device is long term OS support as even on the PC side MS does this with it's OEM partners as they control the OS not thr OEM makers that use Windows unlike Android and the future Fuchsia OS from what I read so far. As far as the macbook fires go well anytime you see that type of hardware spec upgrade your going to have teething issues here as batteries to leak and catch fire. Still like I said before if the issue does get out of control like with the butterfly keyboards then I would strongly suggest trying to get a computer and mobile device lemon law passed to protect your wallets knowing how lazy and greedy these computer makers are still when they make billions of dollars in stock buybacks on Wall St. as you get screwed until they get hit themselves it seems.

32. Fred3

Posts: 561; Member since: Jan 16, 2018

Mackan84 Of course he said mostly but he also ask where have I seen any reports on here as if he was denying it so I gave him simple examples.. PA was quick to report on other phones mishaps so they should point them all out is all that I was saying. Think a little faster next time.

34. midan

Posts: 3008; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"PA was quick to report on other phones mishaps so they should point them all out is all that I was saying." When Macbook became a phone? :D Like i said this isn't computer site, there's very rarely Any PC news. If you want that check engadget

20. iloveapps

Posts: 855; Member since: Mar 21, 2019

Android like you is a sign of an idiot. This is mobile news stupid.

33. Fred3

Posts: 561; Member since: Jan 16, 2018

iloveapps go clean your room before your parents punish you, boy. The way you even talk on her clearly shows your brain isn't fully developed yet.

35. midan

Posts: 3008; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

He's still very right about what he said.

6. VariableCheapskate

Posts: 173; Member since: May 29, 2019

There's literally no reason to buy this or the next generation of iPhone's over the last, except trading one deliberate area of malfunction for another.

7. Vancetastic

Posts: 1569; Member since: May 17, 2017

Here we go....

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