Analyst cuts his forecast of iPhone sales to 38.8 million for fiscal Q2

Analyst cuts his forecast of iPhone sales to 38.8 million for fiscal Q2
Some analysts on Wall Street have already said they expect Apple to report lower than expected iPhone sales for the company's fiscal second quarter, which ended in March. The report is expected to be released next Tuesday, May 1st, after the market closes for the day. Today, another respected Apple analyst joined the club. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi told clients that he has cut his estimate of iPhone sales for the period to 38.8 million units; he originally forecast that Apple would sell 41 million handsets. Wall Street, on average, sees Apple ringing up 43 million phones for the quarter.

During an appearance on CNBC this morning, Sacconaghi said that when chip maker TSMC revised down its 2018 revenue forecast, the company noted weakness in a high-end handset it didn't name. Considering that Apple represents 20% of TSMC sales, most Wall Streeters believe that the iPhone X is the high-end handset under pressure. Besides weak iPhone X sales, Sacconaghi blames the lengthening upgrade cycle for part of Apple's woes. He adds that the decline in iPhone sales from the December quarter (which includes the holidays) to the March quarter will be larger than typically seen. Still, he reduces the significance of that by saying the figure will still be "within the range of expect outcomes."


Back in January, Apple reportedly cut orders with companies that supply parts and components for the iPhone X. The size of the cuts, said to be 50%, indicated that there was trouble in paradise. Nothing coming out of any Wall Street securities house since then, has been bullish for the iPhone X. Just the other day, BH Insights analyst Daniel Ives said that when it comes to Apple, Wall Street in in "full panic mode."

source: CNBC

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13 Comments

1. meanestgenius

Posts: 22218; Member since: May 28, 2014

Putting aside whether this Analyst actually knows what he’s talking about or not, 38.8 million smartphones in one quarter is still a hell of a lot of smartphones. There are OEM’s they don’t move that many handsets in a year.

2. sgodsell

Posts: 7433; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Oh, we all know that, but for instance one OEM that has been consistently growing is Huawei every quarter. They were looking to dethrone Apples #2 position to #3. Especially when they are already selling close to that number of smartphones per quarter (Q4 2017 41 million). It's kind of funny that Apples Tim Cook and Donald Trump are meeting this week to discuss business.

5. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2246; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

It would take Huawei to sell 100+ million a quarter to have their name mentioned in Apple's sentence.

7. sgodsell

Posts: 7433; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

CreeDiddy are you trying to prove my point below in regards to math? Apple has never sold more than 225 million iPhones in a year. So why does Huawei need to sell 100 million in a quarter? Last year Huawei sold around 153 million smartphones to Apples 214 million. That's certainly close to Apple. That's only 61 million smartphones away from the entire year.

3. PhoneCritic

Posts: 1354; Member since: Oct 05, 2011

True. However, we knew from the get go that the X would have a tough time generating sales when Apple inc. released the retail price and offered the same internals on the 8 and 8 Plus minus the 3D facial reg. The price was the breaking point form many. I venture to say when Samsung followed suit with the Note 8 being at the upper echelons also it put off many myself included. I think OEMs have to start re-thinking their pricing strategies because they have proven that above 850 is where they lose a majority of users (never mind 1k plus).

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7433; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

There is a huge difference between Apple and its pitch to sell its iPhones and others. Apple pretends that everyone wants to hold onto their smartphones for 5 or more years. When in reality all smartphones cannot last that long. The batteries for the vast majority won't last more than 3 years. Plus more features will arrive by that time. Remember all of them are pitching new features and options with every iteration. The vast majority will get a new smartphone just after 2 years, nevermind 5 years. Also look at the latest iPhone X or 8's. Does anyone here honestly believe it costs Apple over $500 to fix the glass back on an iPhone X? Or over $400 to fix a 4 year old recycled iPhone 8 plus? Apple has turned into a joke these days and would sell its own mother to do business. Even the Apple Care is a joke and doesn't go past 3 years for any iPhone. Just look at the latest Apple Care prices for their iPhones. If you actually factor in all those costs to the customer. Then Apple is still way overpriced compared to any other OEM. That's just it if people factored everything. Then Samsung is looking really inexpensive in comparison. Apple doesn't even include a fast charger in the box. Everything is extra with Apple.

6. EC112987

Posts: 1216; Member since: Nov 10, 2014

I thought the same when I read the headline

9. darkkjedii

Posts: 31290; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

MG whatup!

11. meanestgenius

Posts: 22218; Member since: May 28, 2014

What up, my dude? Been a minute! Hope all is well with you and your family.

12. darkkjedii

Posts: 31290; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

All good bro, hope all is well with you and yours.

13. meanestgenius

Posts: 22218; Member since: May 28, 2014

All is well, my dude. Thanks for asking.

8. worldpeace

Posts: 3135; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

Next quarter will be more interesting

10. darkkjedii

Posts: 31290; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

What's low for Apple, is usually at the top of others wish list. Apple knows how to get bank, can't hate on em for that.

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