Analyst says iPad mini cannibalization is "overblown"

Analyst says iPad mini cannibalization is
One of the major concerns for Apple with the release of the iPad mini was in the idea that a smaller, and most importantly, less expensive tablet would "cannibalize" Apple's sales of the full-size iPad. But an analyst at Morgan Stanley has conducted a survey (which we think doesn't necessarily disproves the idea of cannibalized sales), and is now saying that despite the numbers, the calls of iPad mini cannibalization are "overblown".

So, we've yet to see any actual sales numbers, so it's hard to say for sure, but we can still be skeptical about the numbers pulled by analyst Katy Huberty, who commented on a new survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers published today by Morgan Stanley and AlphaWise. The survey showed that the iPad mini has accounted for 34% of planned iPad purchases, which makes the tablet a "key demand driver" for the platform according to Huberty. The survey also showed that 47% of iPad mini buyers said they were new to the iOS platform, and 56%of those buying a 9.7" iPad were new customers.

Huberty says that these numbers show that the cannibalization risk from the iPad mini is "manageable," but we're not sure where that conclusion comes from. The trouble that we have with that assessment is that the survey didn't ask what the purchase plans had been before the iPad mini release, nor does it have any comparison to a survey done before the iPad mini release. All the numbers show is that almost half of new iPad owners will be new to iPads, it doesn't really give any indication of intent and whether that intent changed with the iPad mini release. And, that intent change is really the key to the cannibalization debate. 

source: AppleInsider

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iPad mini
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19 Comments

1. amiaq

Posts: 509; Member since: Jun 30, 2012

No people just sick of iOS.

14. Nadr1212

Posts: 741; Member since: Sep 22, 2012

That's YOUR opinion, not that it matters

2. nwright94 unregistered

I honestly think if they released the iPad mini with specs competitive with the iPad 3/4 and current high end tablets, at the same $329 price, that would completely get rid of the 9.7 inch iPad demand. 7-8 inches seems like the perfect size for a tablet. Still has protability without giving up too much screen real estate.

4. belovedson

Posts: 1060; Member since: Nov 30, 2010

7 inches make sense for on the go especially if one has data. it's too small for everyday use at a stationary position

10. Zero0

Posts: 592; Member since: Jul 05, 2012

I don't (yet) own a 7" tablet, but I think it's a great form factor. Some will complain and say that phones aren't much smaller: I'd say they're wrong. The amount of actual screen real estate on the Nexus 7 is way, way larger than the Nexus 4. I'm too lazy to do the math, but somewhere between 2 and 3 times isn't unlikely. They're bigger than phones, allowing for more room for gaming and browsing. Smaller than 10" tablets, making them easier to hold for long periods of time. There are few situations in my life where I absolutely need a 10 inch screen or larger and can't get my 15" laptop out. I see the 7" form factor as a perfect in-between device. It will allow me to read, play games, or watch movies without slaying my phone's battery. The iPad mini especially. I'm not an Apple fan, but it's a good device, to be honest. Nice screen size, very thin and light. Specs are a bit lacking, but it's a nice change of pace for the small tablet market. I'll be getting a Nexus 7, but the mini is still a good (albeit overpriced) device.

3. wendygarett unregistered

Of course, when people are so anxious to learn the ios, they will definitely pick the iPad mini, even though it lack of spec, they don't risk their money to get the iPhone tho, consider the price is not worth it... IPad iPhone they just the same lol...

5. manlapazj

Posts: 3; Member since: Dec 06, 2012

i recently played with an iphone 5 demo unit. same old same old. borish. ^^

6. Droiddoes unregistered

another 10 minutes, another article by the apple defense force.

7. nwright94 unregistered

But you don't care if they write numerous android articles in a small amount of time?

11. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

Did you even read the article? The analyst thinks cannibalization is "overblown", and we disagree with her conclusion. How is that "defending" Apple?

18. quakan

Posts: 1418; Member since: Mar 02, 2011

Obviously he didn't. He probably read the title and hurried up and wrote a comment in hopes of getting many likes and to avoid being comment 117 because then no one would see it and his shot at 20+ likes would be blown. I think that's a fair assessment, don't you Michael?

19. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

No, I think Droiddoes has been annoyed at me. He was looking for ways to attack me all day yesterday in our threads, and this time he just jumped straight to the attack without reading.

8. Zero0

Posts: 592; Member since: Jul 05, 2012

I'd imagine it evens out, really. There are people who will still buy the 10" because it's bigger, people who will buy the mini and otherwise wouldn't have bought any iPad (including iPad users who want to add the mini to their collections), and a few who will buy a mini instead of a full size iPad. However, some people might buy an iPad mini and end up buying a larger iPad if they like, which is a decent counterbalance. And let's not forget that people who buy iPad minis instead of iPads aren't losing that much profit: the margins are not so terribly far apart, I don't think. iPad minis are cheaper to buy, but also cheaper to manufacture. Much like Android malware and fragmentation, yes, the cannibalization issue is overblown.

13. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

Families with the ipad with buy the mini for the kids or grandparents - however, spending money on multiple APPLE tablets is quite expensive.

12. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

In other news, one analyst has predicted that the iphone and ipad are overrated....

15. techloverNYC

Posts: 601; Member since: Nov 20, 2012

Idk wat apple's marketing plan is. Ipad Mini really put ipod touch in an awkward spot. The cheapest ipod touch is cheaper than ipad mini however if you want to add more memory it will be the same or more than an ipad mini. For the same price point ipad mini destroy ipod touch in spec, screen size, camera,etc. With ipad mini you cant really justify the high price tag of the ipod line anymore I think.

16. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

yep. that is true....but if you go on ebay there is a sucker born every bid...

17. johnbftl

Posts: 283; Member since: Jun 09, 2012

So where did she get her data? What was her means for surveying? Were these people randomly selected? Are they pre-screened? Were any of these people compensated for their responses? Survey statistics mean absolutely nothing without proof of how you sampled and came to those results. I can survey 1000 people with android phones and ask them if they hate Apple products. If 85% say yes, I can publish a report saying a survey shows people hate Apple products and by omitting my sample group information, no one would know I could have came to that conclusion forcefully by making sure I only surveyed android owners. These analysts are a bunch of morons. Never trust a media survey finding.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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