The Verizon iPhone: win-win for Big Red and Apple
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In 2010, however, the media chorus really revved up the pace. We ran the Verizon iPhone phrase in Google News Timeline from 2007-2011, and saw that the amount of news about it reached two notable peaks – one in June, and one in October 2010, for some reason, as illustrated below.
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The Verizon iPhone rumors peak when the Q3 carrier and Android subscribers numbers are announced |
The June spike is easier to explain, because that's when the iPhone 4 was introduced, and people were hoping it will have a CDMA radio inside as well, so there were comments galore. But why the sudden spike in Verizon iPhone rumors in October then, right after the Q3 results were announced? And what happened with Big Red's CEO saying they have to "earn" the iPhone, he "can't speak for Apple", and hoping that Verizon's 4G rollout will bring the carrier a step closer to that goal as recently as September?
The third quarter of 2010
The reason might be that both Verizon and Apple got uneasy after the third quarter of last year, and for different reasons. For Verizon it was the sheer amount of high-paying customers AT&T added in Q3 - 2.6 million people, compared to the 997 000 of Verizon. The difference in subscriber numbers then shrunk to less than half a percentage point - 92.8 million for AT&T, against 93.2 for Verizon. We wouldn't be surprised at all if in the last quarter of 2010 AT&T actually surpassed Verizon to become the biggest US carrier - after all, it needed just half a million subscribers more to achieve that.
Considering that it sold 2.5 times more iPhones than Verizon Android smartphones in Q3, AT&T could very well be the biggest US carrier as we speak. Verizon has the lowest monthly cost per customer among US carriers - $26.88 per head in Q3, so we would not be too worried about the subscribers' number per se, but for the actual revenue.
Average monthly revenue per user was much lower for Verizon in Q3 than what AT&T’s customers spent - $51.99, compared to AT&T's $62.84. We should know who came ahead pretty soon, as the carriers are to report Q4 results at the end of January. In the meantime, take a look at these self-explanatory charts below, which visualize the carnage inflicted on Verizon's smartphone sales in August, when iPhone 4 really took the reign at AT&T.
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Verizon smartphone sales in Q3 nosediving after the iPhone 4 launch | |
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Since he archrival AT&T is earning more per subscriber thanks to the iPhone, this really showed in Q3, when AT&T finished with the astounding 36.85% net profit margin (these are Goldman Sachs-type numbers), against Verizon's still decent, but way lower 11.3%, according to Google Finance.
The little story above explains why Verizon had all the incentive in the world to iron out any control differences it might have had with Apple before, and swallow the $400 subsidy it must pay Cupertino for each Verizon iPhone. That's no small change - analysts are predicting 8-12 million Big Red iPhone subscribers this year, which amounts to 3.2 billion minimum cash outlay from Big Red to Apple. AT&T is recuperating the iPhone subsidies for six months into a contract on average, way shorter than with other phones, because iPhone users spend more data, and Verizon is hoping for the same.
For Steve Jobs, on the other hand, a CDMA iPhone costs about 10-15% more to make just in terms of parts, not to mention the redesign expenses. We also have to add eventual penalty fees for breaking up the contractual exclusivity with AT&T, but we don't know when the contract was actually a done deal. If it was signed at the 2006 meetings, we are sure that Apple's lawyers, of which there are plenty, could have found some wiggle room that it is due to expire right now. Alternatively, the penalty fee tab could have been split with Verizon, since rumor has it that Big Red also paid Apple extra to keep the iPhone away from Sprint and T-Mobile.
Most likely Apple just ran the numbers what it will gain and lose for breaking up the exclusivity clause earlier than planned, and the pros outweighed the cons by a large margin, especially in line with Android's rapid growth last summer. To put Steve Jobs's irritation with Android in perspective - he was so annoyed by Google's decision to enter the smartphone business, that after ousting Eric Schmidt from Apple's board of directors in 2009, in September 2010 he literally snapped at Google's Android subscribers claims, adding also that Android is not as open as it paints itself to be, and is very fragmented.
"Well, we didn't go into search", said Steve Jobs childishly in an interview, when asked how he feels about Google entering the smartphone game. Just watching the little green robot march past iOS recently, and gain market share at neck-braking paces on all carriers, while the iPhone 4 was locked down tightly to AT&T, must have been a reason enough to sit down with Verizon and talk about speeding up this iPhone business of theirs.
Memory lane
Let's introduce some historical perspective, just to see how we got here. Steve Jobs about the conception of the iPhone in an interview: "I'll tell you. Actually, it started on a tablet first. I had this idea about having a glass display, a multi-touch display you could type on. I asked our people about it. And six months later they came back with this amazing display. And I gave it to one of our really brilliant UI guys. He then got inertial scrolling working and some other things, and I thought, 'my god, we can build a phone with this' and we put the tablet aside, and we went to work on the phone."
Steve Jobs, who was just coming out of a disappointing mobile relationship with Motorola, resulting in the ho-hum ROKR line, immediately saw the chance to get vindicated by applying this amazing technology in a touchscreen-only phone, which will be unlike anything anybody had seen so far. A carrier realationship would be necessary for these plans, and he met with Cingular (now AT&T) in February 2005 to sell the idea. There was not even a product yet, just the idea, and Cingular didn't promise anything, but remained interested.
Apple's intention to buy services from the carrier like an MVNO, and resell them together with the iPhone, was, of course, shot down. For 2.5 years after the meeting Apple worked day and night (not even counting the year before when it worked on the tablet concept), so it can announce its own phone. Subsequently AT&T promised to back up the project and agree on Apple's novel branding terms, if it receives 5 years of exclusivity.
Steve Jobs reportedly pitched the idea to Verizon as well at the end of 2005, or beginning of 2006, but Big Red reportedly turned down Apple's advances after hearing about the iPhone concept, considering the terms rather looney, and backed up only with the Steve Jobs charisma. Fast forward to now, and Verizon's head offices must have seen a lot of grown men cry in the last three years, when Apple became the most profitable cell phone company in the world, and AT&T was piggybacking on all that glory by almost reaching Verizon's subscriber numbers, and making quite a chink of money in the process.
The Verizon iPhone is here
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Well, this is all behind Verizon now. AT&T is poised to slow subscriber growth in 2011, analysts are predicting anything from adding just 1.2 million new contracts, to losing 3 million when its iPhone exclusivity ends. We think that people who were holding off for a Verizon iPhone, didn't sign with AT&T anyway when the rumors started circulating. Besides, the carrier did a good job locking up people in two-year contracts by allowing early upgrades and slashing the price of older iPhone model.
Moreover, AT&T introduced a trio of amazing Android smartphones for this year, so the Verizon iPhone effect might be felt until the summer, when the next iPhone version arrives, and those Android powerhouses have been on sale for a few months already. On the bright side, current AT&T subscribers will probably benefit from having a less congested network. Verizon's 3G network might be slower than AT&T, but the claims are for better and more stable coverage. Besides, if you only have Verizon coverage where you live or travel, it's unlikely that you signed up with AT&T just for the iPhone.
We'll know how the sales numbers pan out in just a quarter, but in the meantime we can all finally put the longest-lasting rumor in the cell phone industry to sleep.
source: GoogleTimeline, Asymco, BusinessWeek
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25 Comments
1. networkdood posted on 11 Jan 2011, 10:24 2 2
Wow, now we will have no more stupid 'verizon is going to get the IPHONE' articles....because they finally did it. I am sure that BIG RED can find 4-10 million chumps to buy the I(nferior) phone - this phone may hurt ANDROID sales more than AT&T as APPLE is much better at marketing than those that produce ANDROID phones (as in just about every other company besides APPLE).
16. cellgeek82 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 14:27 0 0
Unfortunatly it's a matter of time before people start the "Sprint's getting the iPhone" and "T-mobile is getting the iPhone" crap. But this proves the true popularity of smartphones. When a new Android device come out, people are like "yay". But when something in the iPhone realm happens the media has full attention on the iPhone and web blogs and forums nearly explode with people posting information.
May the epic battle of AT&T vs. Verizon begin.
2. Manny (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 10:40 1 1
Someone would be a fool to purchase the Verizon IPhone. The Verizon IPhone has no LTE connectivity and no GSM roaming. They are selling an outdated phone. The Android based phones with LTE connectivity are more future proof. I thought Verizon would have implemented 1X Advanced CDMA technology in their network which would allow simultaneous voice and data, I believe though I'm not sure. Man this announcement is a joke. I have to agree with AT&T that Verizon dropped the ball on this one.
3. Jase4g (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 10:49 0 1
Yes Been Waiting So Long Just YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS, Finally A Super Secure I Phone, 32gigs And In Black And Mobile Hotspot And Unlimited Data And More Coverage And So Much More, YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS I Don't Care About Any Other Comments After This......
4. JeffdaBeat posted on 11 Jan 2011, 10:52 2 0
Why would someone be foolish to buy the iPhone 4? Is Verizon's current internet speed not fast enough for the iPhone's target audience...which is everyone? You guys have to stop thinking like nerds and think like a business that has a phone that caters to everyone. Why come out with an LTE phone when LTE isn't everywhere yet? Will LTE really matter to the very non-techy people who carry iPhones? I am a super nerd and I carry and iPhone. I don't care about labels or "Gs" I care about speed. Verizon's speed was just fine before the iPhone 4 and it will be fine afterwards too. Same with AT&T.
Apple is successful because you don't have to be a techie to enjoy their products. You can be a kid, mom, grandmother, student, or business person and still use the phone. That's Apple's target audience and that's why Apple sales so well.
5. Slammer posted on 11 Jan 2011, 11:17 1 1
Sorry Jeff, but I fully believe you purchased an iPhone because everyone else was. It was cool at the time and status quo was too hard to pass up. I am going off experience here. Out of the 13 individuals I know that purchased the iPhone, only 4 were aware of differences between the iPhone and other handsets. You may know the difference between the two but I also feel you bought for the sake of saying: "I own an iPhone". Why do I believe this? Because as you said, you are a techie and know what the other devices are capable of. It is an elite status to own an iPhone whether it has the functions of the newer devices or not.
10. JeffdaBeat posted on 11 Jan 2011, 12:15 1 2
I'm glad you know me so well Slammer although we've never met.
First, the reason I purchased an iPhone was because of the large assortment of apps. I'm able to do my banking on my phone as well as use the navigation programs that are available (where you can download the entire mapping program instead of using Telenav). I also like the ability ZumoCast gives me in that I can stream any video, audio, pictures or documents from my computer on 3G or Wifi. I also wanted a 32GB hard drive for the massive amount of music I have on my computer...
Oh, I've been in the wireless business for going on 4 years now. So, I'm happy for you and all 13 of your friends. It's my business to know what goes on in the wireless industry because it directly effects my pockets.
Now, as for your saying the iPhone is a status symbol...how much of a status symbol is something that everyone has? If everyone has a diamond ring, is it really a status symbol to have a diamond ring anymore? True, everyone doesn't have an iPhone, but there are too many people out there who do have one for me to really feel like I am special. Hell, there are 80-year-old's with iPhones...I'm not exactly trying to earn cool points...But you can keep thinking I am trying to gain some elite status...me and the 80-year-olds that also carry iPhones...
I bought an iPhone because it's the smartphone that works for me and I've carried a Blackberry Bold, Curve, and Pearl. I've carried the HTC Mogul and Touch 2. I've carried a Palm Treo and Pre. I've even carried a few Android Phones and a Windows Phone 7. They are all awesome phones and they do have a lot of functions...but none that I really care about, otherwise I'd get it.
I love Apple Products, but I won't say their shit don't stink if it's shit. I don't have an iPad or Apple TV. I don't run out and buy a product because Steve Jobs talks about it. And although it's easy for you and others to assume so, not everyone else thinks like that either. It's all about what works for you and I'm sorry dude, what works for you doesn't work for everyone else. Obviously, the iPhone doesn't work for you, but I'm not calling you a fucktard because of it.
15. Kjayhawk posted on 11 Jan 2011, 13:54 1 0
LOL well said, but like you said think business I'm afraid out of the many people I know that have an iphone don't know anything about phones and they bought it simply because everyone else does and its an iphone. My friend who works for AT&T says the same thing people don't ask questions they say they are ready to upgrade. Correction I don't know anyone that really cares about the specs of the iphone, its a good phone and has been advertised as that.
You are not really arguing slammers point, people buy the iphone because its the iphone, its simply that. Is the iphone a bad phone defiantly not. I don't believe you personally purchased the iphone because its an iphone, you bought it because you love apple and at the time it was a great phone! And don't call people names.
18. JeffdaBeat posted on 11 Jan 2011, 15:17 0 0
His arguement would have been completely legit had he not pinned it to me personally. People do get the iPhone because it is an iPhone. People also get Android because it's a "Droid." People get products that have good reputations because they are good products. That's fine, but don't tell me why I get products I get...I could care less what the name brand is, I care about function.
24. luxzy801 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 19:09 0 0
Actually JeffdaBeat; The iPhone is a status symbol, cell phones have been that way for a long time.
If you are in the wireless industry, then you would remember the insanity around the Motorola RAZR back in 2004 when T-Mobile gained exclusivity and gained several million customers.
But after three years, the RAZR was in bad times.
The only reason the iPhone did so well it because if it's exclusivity to at&t, and now that there are two networks with it, it will leave something open for a different product just as it had happened with the RAZR. You will also see a lot of people dumping the iPhone because it is no longer a exclusive product since 80 million more people are going to have a chance to carry it in their pockets.
Also, if you have been in the Wireless market, you would know that apps are not everything. Take Palm and Windows mobile for example; Palm has always had more apps than WinMo for their PalmOS platform, however, WinMo still came out on top with nearly 3 times less apps than PalmOS, and where is Palm now? Gone.
It is now just a matter of time that the iPhone starts losing steam like the RAZR did.
Now to talk about the phone itself, it will go down in history as a trend setting phone (Just as the RAZR). And people will still carry the phone for a long time after it gets hit and drops from consumer site (unless Apple can come out with another product that is different than its iPhone).
That is how the wireless industry works, there will always be something newer and better that comes out and unless apple can come up with something besides that iPhone and stop relying so much on the product, they are going to end up the same way Motorola did after people stopped buying the RAZR.
6. dha0708080808 (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 11:25 3 0
well hooooraaayyyyy!!!!! vzw finally got their iphone killer : )
7. JohnBFTL (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 11:36 0 0
So disappointed in Verizon. This is a huge slap in the face to Google and everything they have done for Verizon. All for an inferior product. Everyone should expect Verizon's ratings on Consumer Reports go way down in the coming year in Call Quality and Customer Satisfaction because of this piece of garbage.
9. testman22 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 11:57 0 0
actually even though its the same model as At&t, they have completely redesgined the antennas and have corrected the issue
11. hawk62 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 12:22 0 1
U r a moron. Vz customer has been going to shit long before iphone. The iphone is not the problem vz is.
"what google did for vz". Omg Talk about a fan boy! If an iphone user said something like that they would be jumped on. Yes google saved thr number one cell carrier! And they read ur email while doing it! Haha
14. CRICKETownz posted on 11 Jan 2011, 13:49 0 0
So i guess you have no more purpose on Phonearena.com now that Verizon has your precious iP4. it's been real hawk62...see you back on Verizon soon. lol you can cut the irony with a knife.
20. dpullen81 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 15:50 0 0
so disappointed in verizon??? what google did for vzw??? you sir are an idiot. verizon is giving the customers what they want. for years everyone has been begging for iphone to be on vzw and now it is... all i c on this forum is people complaining about whatever than can find to complain about. get a life. first you complain we dont have it . now you complain we do... i just dont understand. and as far as the google slap... you said what google did for vzw... you mean what vzw did for google? vzw sold/sells the crap out of thier phones and will remain to do so because it has higher ratings than the iphone. think about it if you come up with a great product and you want it sold, you go to the company with the best name and ask them to sell it for you correct? so y do you think vzw is slapping google in the face? the correct statment would be google slapping vzw in the face for asking us to sell thier item and then going to other carriers to have them sell it. anyway to all you complainers out there please get a freaking life and do something more possitive with your time
8. oneandonly478 posted on 11 Jan 2011, 11:54 0 0
iphone is a great smartphone , watch how many verzion sell. wonder how facetime going to work and will u be able to facetime att users, main question itunes and verzion.
19. Whateverman posted on 11 Jan 2011, 15:48 0 0
Why would iTunes working on VZW be in question? Better question, what good is an iPhone without iTunes? Would you buy one, and what company would sell one? Did VZW tell RIM that they will not allow their Blackberry to connect to BIS/BES servers? Or tell Microsoft that the KINs could not connect to the "Spot"? No! So why would they take a one trick pony like the iPhone and stop it from doing it's one trick? It'll work just fine, so buy it if you like it. Like the article said...win-win.
12. Bossman (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 12:41 0 0
So they are releasing in middle of Feb and supposedly iPhone 5 or 4G will come out in June or July. I wonder if Verizon will get the new iPhone 5 or whatever they name it right away. Basically they might have 3 or 4 months if this is the case to push iphone 4. Something iPhone fans will want to consider.
13. cAstro (unregistered) posted on 11 Jan 2011, 13:02 0 0
Reason not to focus on the fact that Verizon's Iphone 4 will only be 3G...
At&t's Iphone is only 3G. Apple is always going to release something better. So you could wait...or you could buy the phone, keep it in decent condition, then sell the phone for anywhere between $200-$400 used. I see listings on craigslist for the iphone 3Gs at around $200 still! That could definitely help you buy the new Iphone at full retail if you needed to.
