T-Mobile and SpaceX's direct-to-cell service will officially launch in July. The service is in beta currently and only lets customers send texts over satellite right now. T-Mobile is expected to roll out data services this year but according to an analysis by Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, data speeds may be painfully slow initially.
T-Mobile never said that satellite services would match or exceed cellular services. Instead, they are intended as a fallback option for when its own network isn't available. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid used crowdsourced mobile network data provided by Weplan Analytics to analyze the capabilities, limitations, and future prospects of the feature.
The report established a clear correlation between the number of satellites in orbit and expansion of the coverage, particularly in areas not served adequately by land-based networks, such as national parks and sparsely populated areas.
The paper has also revealed that direct-to-cellular signals were stable over the analyzed period and the network was not congested, seemingly because usage was limited to SMS during that time. That said, since the signal strength is lower compared to LTE, a phone's battery may deplete faster when it's connected to a satellite.
The researchers used Signal-to-Interference-plus-Noise Ratio (SINR) to conclude that T-Mobile and SpaceX's data service will offer speeds of 4 Mbps outdoors, which will only be enough for basic connectivity needs in remote areas.
Based on SINR measurements, we estimate a current mean throughput of approximately 4 Mbps, which is functional for basic services but significantly below terrestrial averages.
—Universidad Politecnica de Madrid
The speed could increase to up to 24 Mbps in the future, considering the FCC updated the out-of-band emissions limits for T-Mobile in March. TMF Associates's Tim Farrar points out that "the paper [incorrectly] assumes 10dB SINR improvement to calculate the higher theoretical capacity," so 24 Mbps is a very optimistic and possibly unrealistic theoretical maximum speed.
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Looking ahead, throughput and performance may improve to 24 Mbps with higher radiated power (as recently authorized by the FCC), wider bandwidth allocation, and continued constellation expansion. However, these enhancements will depend on regulatory developments —particularly spectrum access— and on the evolution of service demand.
—Universidad Politecnica de Madrid
Regardless, the data service may fall short of expectations initially, but the speeds could improve over time.
SpaceX CEO had hinted at a peak download speed of 17Mbps in 2024
All in all, T-Mobile's satellite service is still nothing short of impressive, especially considering that it's the only carrier in the US to have deployed the feature at a large scale. As far as data speeds are concerned, they were never expected to match 4G or 5G, with an exec revealing in March that data services would be low-impact.
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Anam Hamid is a computer scientist turned tech journalist who has a keen interest in the tech world, with a particular focus on smartphones and tablets. She has previously written for Android Headlines and has also been a ghostwriter for several tech and car publications. Anam is not a tech hoarder and believes in using her gadgets for as long as possible. She is concerned about smartphone addiction and its impact on future generations, but she also appreciates the convenience that phones have brought into our lives. Anam is excited about technological advancements like folding screens and under-display sensors, and she often wonders about the future of technology. She values the overall experience of a device more than its individual specs and admires companies that deliver durable, high-quality products. In her free time, Anam enjoys reading, scrolling through Reddit and Instagram, and occasionally refreshing her programming skills through tutorials.
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