$12 billion of potential Apple iPhone 9 revenue is up in the air

Last Friday, Apple's shares opened the final trading session of the week at $318.79. Tomorrow, it will be exactly one week later and Apple's shares will be priced at $273.52 as trading opens up on Friday. The decline of $45.27 works out to a weekly fall of 14.2% The stunning decline has to do with fears about the continued spread of the coronavirus disease. Besides some consumers who have had to wait for a longer period of time than anticipated to receive the iPhone they ordered, perhaps investors have been the most affected by what has been going on. The tumble in Apple's stock price could not be halted by the optimistic words that came out of Tim Cook's mouth today.

The Apple CEO spoke with Fox Business and said that "It feels to me that China is getting the coronavirus under control. When you look at the numbers, they're coming down day by day by day. And so I'm very optimistic there." The executive added that "On the supplier side, we have suppliers-you know iPhone is built everywhere in the world. We have key parts coming from the United States...when you look at the parts that are done in China, we have reopened factories." Cook then said that Apple is in the third phase of getting back to normal."

You might recall that at the end of January, when Apple announced its fiscal first-quarter results, the company released a wider than usual forecast for fiscal second-quarter revenue because of the rapidly spreading disease. And a week and a half ago, Apple went even further stating that its fiscal second-quarter revenue will now fall under the $63 billion-$67 billion range it predicted at the end of January. Apple's stock has declined five out of the last six days and every hedge fund worth its fees has a position in the stock. That means that Apple could still have quite a way to go on the downside.

Apple has reopened 29 of its 42 Apple Stores in China, although the business hours of these stores have been cut by 33% from 12 hours a day to eight. And while the manufacturer is in the midst of slowly ramping up iPhone production at factories in China, the coronavirus just reared its ugly head in South Korea at a Samsung facility that produces the Galaxy Z Flip and the Galaxy Fold handsets.

The coronavirus has already forced the cancellation of this month's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona leading several manufacturers to cancel new product announcements. Ironically, as we pointed out the other day, the disease has actually helped the tablet market in China as many employees now work from a home office and children are receiving their lessons remotely at home.

Apple is supposed to hold a new product event on March 31st. We could see the long-rumored entry-level iPhone 9 (aka the iPhone SE2) greet the light of day along with a new version of the iPad Pro. The latter will be equipped with a similar camera module as the one used on the iPhone 11 Pro models and will include a Time of Flight (ToF) sensor. The latter measures how long it takes an infrared beam to bounce off of a subject and return to the phone. The data can be used to produce enhanced AR capabilities and more.

During the event, which might be at risk due to the coronavirus, Apple could also introduce a new pair of over the ear headphones, a new Apple iPod touch, and a new Apple TV. Even if Apple is able to unveil all of the new products that it has up its sleeve, the big question is whether it will be able to obtain the necessary supplies needed to build the other new products it will introduce. Reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that he expects Apple to sell 25 million to 30 million iPhone 9 units this year. At $399 a pop for the 64GB model, Apple could generate as much as $12 billion in iPhone 9 sales alone this year as long as the coronavirus doesn't force the company to make some changes to its plans. If you listen to Apple CEO Tim Cook though, it sure sounds as though he believes that the worse is behind Apple.