We've talked about Gene Munster before, a talented analyst at Piper Jaffray who tends to skew towards the Apple side of the spectrum, but that doesn't mean that he's ever completely off (at least when he has a reasonable sample size of data behind his "analysis",) but that does mean that Mr. Munster has a bit less credibility when making claims about non-Apple products. His latest claim is that if Google and Motorola form that special bond, wherein Google uses Motorola as the exclusive Android maker, it would kill the Android platform. Let's break down that statement:
Suspension of disbelief
The hypothetical used here is pretty far out there. Munster wants us to believe that it is possible in his world that Google would close a platform that it has been fighting to keep open. We need to assume that Google will also willingly cut out all other hardware manufacturers in the Android ecosystem to make Motorola the exclusive manufacturer. No more HTC, no more Samsung, no more cheap Chinese knock-offs, just Motorola devices and that's it. Everyone following along? Good. Anyone out there believe that this is an actual possibility? Probably not.
Back to reality
Munster even goes so far in showing his lack of understanding with Google strategy (and the absurdity of his hypothetical situation) by saying that Google would end up losing $4.5 billion in ad revenue from the loss of market share if Android were to become a Motorola exclusive. Yes, Gene, that's exactly why your scenario makes no sense, and why Google wouldn't kill its own platform for exclusivity with a hardware manufacturer. Google doesn't care about having the single most popular device. Google wants Android ubiquity, because then all roads lead to Google ads.
Check back in next week when Mr. Munster creates a pie chart to describe the market effects if Apple decided to open up iOS and begin licensing it to outside manufactures!
Thanks to remixfa for the additional artwork