Tongue in cheek ways to value Apple's stock

Tongue in cheek ways to value Apple's stock
With Apple's stock the center of attention this week, we have explained the different ways that professional traders try to determine the direction of Apple's stock. Fundamental analysts look at the nuts and bolts of a company's business, which in Apple's case is manufacturing devices like the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad. We've talked about analysts studying the supply chain, and checking retail stores looking for an edge. We've also discussed the technicians who use charts to let the stock itself do the talking. This includes the Elliot Wave Theory, moving average breakouts, CANSLIM and Stage Analysis to name a few.

The jokers at The Joy of Tech have produced an infograph that covers a number of, well, let's just call them unorthodox methods of valuing a stock such as Voodoo, Tarot cards (check out the cards, they are a riot!). Whatever methodology of analysis you use, it was a tough week for Apple which closed Friday at $439.88.

source: TheJoyofTech via AllThingsD

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43 Comments

44. Caralho

Posts: 119; Member since: Jun 18, 2012

Well put, man. Apple without Jobs is akin to Venezuela without Chavez... After all, what is a dictatorship without its evil genious of a mastermind? The second best "Dear Leader" lacks all the enthusiasm and carisma.

43. TritonForceX

Posts: 60; Member since: Sep 27, 2012

The major thing the iPhone 5 was missing compared to all the previous iPhone releases (I'm not talking hardware or software upgrades, if you can call them upgrades) is hype. Like that Samsung ad where everyone's standing outside speculating what's going to be included, everyone always got caught up in the secrecy and strategic press leaks that blew everything up in their minds to make Steve Jobs God, and apparently Apple Heaven. If SJ had introduced the iPhone 5, we wouldn't be having near as many complaints about it. He dodged AntennaGate, and would've done his "magic" on downplaying iPhone 5 problems to keep everyone upbeat about how "awesome" it is. Tim Cook basically released all the information, had a lackluster unveil, and everyone's not entranced by the show now and are asking, "What the hell did we just spend our kid's college fund on?" Now that there's no ring-leader to direct the Apple cult's attention, all the fanboys are trying to take up the slack, and it's turning into chaos (e.g. some of the arguments that get started on these boards, for instance). But stockholders are a part of this "cult" group as well. They're not entranced by the "new, larger screen" and "faster processor", etc., and even though it still may be an okay product, it doesn't have the OMFG luster it used to have. To put it another way, I remember old Steve Martin standup routines where he's standing on stage with the fake arrow in his head. He talked and talked and talked, and the audience was very into the show and laughed at all the jokes. But when you really analyzed what he was saying, he didn't say one damn thing the whole show! He was just skilled enough to package everything to make it enjoyable, but the product he was giving out was just nonsense. That's the same effect I'm trying to say SJ had, but TC doesn't, and is what's responsible for the stock shake-up and unhappiness with them. I don't think we're seeing the absolute "fall" of Apple, I just think it's returning from it's over-hyped, over-inflated ego and will rest among the sea of HTC, Motorola, Win8, Android, etc. They'll be a company that makes a solid product that has it's own apparent pros and cons, and won't be THE company with THE product that makes all other companies' attempts at competing with them futile, like it should've been from the get-go.

37. gallitoking

Posts: 4721; Member since: May 17, 2011

Apple will be around for many years to come.. Voodoo and all the bad wishe for Apple to fail may come true one day,,,, but is not going to be any time soon

34. SIGPRO

Posts: 2819; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

Apple is dying....that's good because they are a bunch of hypocrites!

30. rusticguy

Posts: 2828; Member since: Aug 11, 2012

Let's see if this can slide down to sub 300 level. Possible if vendors at Chinese assembly joints want 15% hike for not employing kids and be in profit ... foxcon already reported a loss i guess so not a good sign for those who use their services..

13. InspectorGadget80 unregistered

PUT A VOODOO curse on Apple so it's stock can fall

17. darkkjedii

Posts: 31807; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Shhhhhhhhhh. No wack statements please

21. AppLE.R0yally.

Posts: 6; Member since: Jan 25, 2013

We see you are jealous! Apple already has VOODOO'S, and Litigates, We like thatâ„¢

23. cheetah2k

Posts: 2341; Member since: Jan 16, 2011

Apple stock will be sub $400 in a few weeks. The bubble has burst!

40. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

I give it days or just over a week.

26. rd311

Posts: 10; Member since: May 08, 2010

Why would you want Apple to fail??? They are a American company!! HTC, Samsung and LG are all foreign companies. A lot of people have lost touch!! Competition is good for consumers like us. Drives technology through the roof and we as consumers will come out ahead. Remember when the original iPhone came out. Every phone company wanted to come with some thing better than the iPhone. It set a standard for all phones. Since then companies have actually caught up to the iPhone. It is apples turn to push the technology envelope a little further and it will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few months with all cell phone technology!!!

28. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Apple is an American company....but it seems like Apple lives in its own lil world.... As for supporting American companies...some of the more reliable cars that arent expensive are Nissans and Toyotas. I support whats works well....not if it just American. I dont think I will ever get a Ford or Cadillac or Buick again. Agree with everything else you said.

29. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

I left out Hondas too for reliable and arent too expensive. Another non American company.

36. ZayZay

Posts: 571; Member since: Feb 26, 2011

I usually would support such a statement for helping the American company but c'mon, they won't pay factory workers in AMERICA to make the product ie overseas jobs. They hold most of their money outside of the US so they don't have to pay nearly as much taxes as they should... So why would we feel bad for helping a company that won't even help the country they are from?

42. rd311

Posts: 10; Member since: May 08, 2010

ZayZay, Look up what your beloved company Google did with 10 Billion dollars before the first of the year. They moved that amount of money to an off shore account in the Cayman Islands. Why you ask, because they didn't want to pay taxes on it. Every large company either does the same thing, moves to Mexico or overseas to avoid being taxed in America. As for American made, look at Walmart for example!! 15 years ago Walmart flew flags on the outside of their stores that read "made in USA". Go to Walmart now and see if u can find any thing that is not made in china or overseas. Last I looked Walmart is still one of the largest companies in the world!!!

41. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

It may be an American company, but they don't pay taxes, they don't have any significant manufacturing here (ONE small mac line in the future is insignificant), and they don't employ that many American employees directly (most of their sales comes from third parties and online). Were they to a) move ALL product lines back to the U.S. (or at least North America), b) stop their BS litigations, c) lower their products' prices by 25-50%, d) adopt universal standards instead of making their own proprietary crud, e) lose favor with the stupid hipster coffee-shop residents, I might start to be ambivalent about them rather than openly repulsed by and against them. Inused to like them l, pre-Windows 95, and owned quite a few.

10. Caralho

Posts: 119; Member since: Jun 18, 2012

Wait, let me check my crystal balls...lol The beginning of the end for Apple!!!

11. Joker

Posts: 24; Member since: Dec 07, 2011

I can see it too: Apple stock dropped another 20% after the announcement of the next iPhone & iPad

15. TBomb

Posts: 1776; Member since: Dec 28, 2012

I just think that the apple ahh-factor has lost its momentum. they're not changing anything major anymore. Just makign different sized iphones and calling it an ipad or ipod after they take away the phone ability. My personal opinion.

22. cheetah2k

Posts: 2341; Member since: Jan 16, 2011

Apple was warned not to follow the RIM business model, but underneath all the denials, they've gone down that path. Apple will end up like RIM -> small and irrelevant.. Its only a matter of time.

4. amiaq

Posts: 509; Member since: Jun 30, 2012

All these over hype, denials, false and exaggerating testimonial regarding Apple products satisfactions which has been pushing the market up. Once truth set it, facts become apparent, alternatives becoming obvious, what else left? It is "dot com" bubble crash all over again.

5. Hemlocke unregistered

The fact is, AAPL is severely undervalued. With a P/E below 10 (Google's is a 23+, MSFT's is a 15, and Amazon's is 3,380) and good cash flow, this is nothing more than manipulation. The dot.com bubble was built on companies with no assets, no cash flow, and no prospects of either. Apple is the healthiest company on the planet.

8. amiaq

Posts: 509; Member since: Jun 30, 2012

Yeah, the fact that Apple's foundation is strong might be the reason it hasn't crash as bad. However my view is the fundamental reasons of its decline is similar to dot com.

3. faisolbauuz

Posts: 121; Member since: Jan 05, 2013

Well anything goes up goes down thats it

2. roscuthiii

Posts: 2383; Member since: Jul 18, 2010

Something I don't think I've seen (then again, I admit to not really looking into it) is the volume of AAPL trading. The stock price has gotten a black eye, but is the volume of movement of APPL up? Down? Steady? One of the biggest things to me about AAPL is that I think Apple has only paid out dividends twice in 18 years (IIRC). So, until you've sold your investment, you're not actually seeing any profit from it. Is it possible that there are people simply cashing out before the value dips below their initial investment, which then instigates others doing the same as the value slides lower? Cashing out is the only way to profit from APPL after all. If that's the case then I'd expect the value to stabilize somewhere around the value where the majority of people paid for the stock. The people that bought in at the mid range and low range will hold on to it waiting for it to rise again as stocks tend to rise and fall. All the people dumping it now are probably those that bought in recently after the stock started skyrocketing not realizing it couldn't last forever, or didn't realize there were no dividends. I think paying out dividends could increase the perceived value of the stock in people's minds. (Sorry for rambling people. I need so much more coffee today.)

1. GoBears

Posts: 456; Member since: Apr 27, 2012

They wanted the war with Android and now they got it. Too bad they are losing it. I love googling aapl and seeing the steady decline since Cook started calling the shots. Also at their new stock price, they are no longer the "most valuable" company.

6. Hemlocke unregistered

You are funny. Let's ask Motorola, HTC, and Google (Yes, Google) how that war is really going. Motorola is one step away from being worth less than a Starbuck's gift card, HTC is a rowboat with multiple leaks, and Google is now trying to wrest Android back from Samsung by stepping up the Nexus program. The only company really benefiting from Android is Samsung, and at the rate their brand recognition is growing, and the rate at which they are building their own ecosystem, it won't be long before they plop their TouchWiz skin on Tizen and head out on their own.

7. joey_sfb

Posts: 6794; Member since: Mar 29, 2012

I don't mind if Tizen ecosystem is the same as Android econsystem, hundreds of thousand of apps and great maps, emails, clouds services. Tizen is open source and with enough developer support could be a viable choice. But the fact is Android is currently the one with the best ecosystem apart from iOS. I personally prefer Android over iOS for now. Apple sucks balls !@@!

9. PhoneArenaUser

Posts: 5498; Member since: Aug 05, 2011

"...and Google is now trying to wrest Android back from Samsung by stepping up the Nexus program." Do you even know what you are talking?

12. protozeloz

Posts: 5396; Member since: Sep 16, 2010

Dude Motorola was worth less than Starbucks .... They have been loosing money since the RAZR (not to be confused with droid RAZR) HTC!? Seriously? You knew what HTC was 5 years ago...? Yeah neither the rest of the world Google is being working with blunt knifes and yet they manage to get 20% profit compared with 24% from apple that's not so much to be jealous about.... So far moto and Google are doing fairly good with their "war" being MS their only big pain... Also Google itself has yet to be sued and apple is been loosing patents from USPO

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