Samsung cuts into Apple's lead in the U.S. during the second quarter

Samsung cuts into Apple's lead in the U.S. during the second quarter
During the second quarter of the year, 173 million Americans owned a smartphone. That represented a 71.6% penetration of the mobile market, up 4 percentage points since the end of the first quarter in March. So which platform is on top in the states? It still is Android, and Google's open source OS still owns more than 50% of the market.

Android's actual figure for the three months ended in June was 51.9%, off .3 percentage points from the three months ended in March. Apple's iOS cut into the lead, as it gained .7 percentage points in the period, to own 42.1% of the U.S. Smartphone pie at the end of the second quarter. Android's lead has dropped from 10.8 pp to 9.8 pp. Windows Phone tacked on .1 pp for the quarter, to finish third with a 3.4% share. BlackBerry and Symbian round out the top five with 2.4% (-.3 pp) and .1% (-.1 pp) respectively.

The top smartphone manufacturer in the U.S. at the end of the quarter was Apple. The iPhone has 42.1% of the smartphone market in the U.S., up .7 percentage points from Q1. Samsung moved closer to the iPhone manufacturer by tacking on 1.6 pp to its U.S. smartphone market share. With a 28.6% slice of the U.S. smartphone pie, Sammy now trails Apple by 13.5 percentage points, down from the 14.4 percentage points it trailed Apple by after the first quarter. LG (6.4%, -.3 pp), Motorola (5.9%, -.5 pp) and HTC (4.8%, -.6 pp) finished third, fourth and fifth respectively.

Facebook was the top mobile app in the second quarter, reaching 73.6% of  app users in the states. YouTube and the Google Play Store were tied for second as both reached 52.1% of the app audience in the period.


source: comScore via AndroidandMe

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48 Comments

31. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I just did an excel graph of all comscore reports back to August 2013, and it shows both Apple and Android essentially flat, fluctuating up and down. Only Samsung shows consistent growth, much higher than either. I wanted to post it here, but I don't see any way to upload attachments.

38. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Glad to hear that you did your own analysis. That makes me happy. +1 I have gone back to June of 2010, and it shows a fairly meteoric rise of Android from then to June of 2012, and then the plateau effect, that you have just described, since then. On the other hand, iOS shows themselves to be slower, but steady.

39. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Darn... timed out... I also have a comScore spreadsheet, by the way... So, iOS has shown a nearly 8% growth in the same time that Android has shown, overall, just 0.3% growth, and even though iOS has indeed slowed down, remember that they always do slow down from roughly March to July each year, and that they are about to release the next iteration of the iPhone. Even though iOS share leveled out quite a bit, it has still maintained a steady increase where Android has not. Android has been stuck on their plateau for nearly two years now, and I have not seen iOS truly plateau-ing in the same sense just yet. That doesn't mean that can't happen soon, but Android isn't any better off here in the US. Samsung is growing within Android only because they are the only OEM selling in the states that is actually making some real money with Android. So I'll say it here right now... I still see the Apple/Samsung duopoly in full effect, but I don't see Samsung overtaking Apple in the US anytime soon.

41. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Now, if Samsung finally releases Tizen, that changes the whole ball game - Samsung can already hold their ground with Android, but then will also add marketshare through Tizen, once they release it in the US. This is where I see a strong chance for Samsung to pass Apple. I don't think that Android will stay ahead of Apple, but Samsung could if they take almost the whole Android share AND the Tizen share yet to be. I feel that Samsung has outgrown Android... has reached a limit with Android... and the only way to get further for them is to release Tizen, which they will control from end to end, from top to bottom, and which they can take full ownership of and push into the stratosphere.

20. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Yes, yes, Samsung is catching up with Apple in the US, but notice that iOS is now less than 10% below Android in the same market. By the time Samsung finishes cannibalizing Android marketshare, will Android still hold a higher percentage of the US market than iOS? I would say that's a fair question at this point. So, which one will happen first? Will Samsung overtake Apple before iOS overtakes Android, or will iOS overtake Android before Samsung overtakes Apple? Taking the increase in iOS marketshare (0.7%) minus the increase in Android marketshare (minus -0.3%), and dividing the difference between Android marketshare (51.9%) and iOS marketshare (42.1%) by that amount (1.0%), one finds that a preliminary linear interpolation yields an iOS/Android reversal in about 30 months. Taking the increase in Samsung market share (1.6%) minus the increase in Apple marketshare (minus 0.7%), and dividing the difference between Apple marketshare (42.1%) and Samsung marketshare (28.6%) by that amount (0.9%), one finds that a preliminary linear interpolation yields a Samsung/Apple reversal in about 45 months. Although this is a crude way of looking at this (and hence preliminary), it goes to show that iOS will likely outpace Android before Samsung can cannibalize enough Android marketshare to pass Apple to begin with. Now, it is true that I only used data from this June 2014 comScore report to characterize this situation, and if you called me out for that, you would be legitimately right about it... so, I did go and use an average of past comScore reports to characterize a much longer baseline, and what I found is that, while the behavior gets slowed way down in both cases, it is always iOS that still wins out longer and longer before Samsung with the more and more data I use for averaging. If you don't believe me, try it for yourself, and see. Also notice that, at smartphone penetration (71.6%) times iOS/Apple marketshare (42.1%), there are now more iPhones (30.1436%) than featurephones (28.4%) in the US mobile user base. No matter how small they are outside of the US and Japan, Apple is where the money is going.

23. PapaSmurf

Posts: 10457; Member since: May 14, 2012

tl,dr.

30. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I only got maybe halfway through your post, but already I can see you're using faulty methodology. This is one brief window. And we've seen these minor fluctuations before. They don't point to anything, and you certainly can't use such limited data points to extrapolate anything. The post was a long winded exercise in rationalization. The only thing you can draw from the latest Comscore report is that Apple grew slightly in the US this period, and Samsung grew slightly more, while Android as a platform saw a very slight dip. All of this has happened before, and so has the reverse.

37. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

If you can't even read the whole post, then what happens when you try to read an actual book? Do you stop after every 200 words? I did go on to make a long-baseline analysis, and reported later in the post that I got similar results, just over much longer periods of time and with more extreme leads by Apple. I didn't feel like posting those calculations because it would have been too long to post, but I invited anyone who is interested to go back, dig up the past comScore reports, and do the math themselves with the averages.

43. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

If the book is spouting nonsense, yes, I do put it down. If you want people to read your manifesto, either make it sensible, or so crazy we have to read it.

46. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Its hardly a manifesto... the majority of it was mathematical hand-holding, so I don't see how you discerned complete insanity within only 200 words or less.

44. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

As to your analysis, since the trend clearly shows both iOS and Android flat over the last year, with Samsung showing steady growth, either your data or your math is flawed.

45. domfonusr

Posts: 1106; Member since: Jan 17, 2014

Well, I have nothing to lose by sharing my spreadsheet... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsP-dZ0H7tq1dDdhWmdkbFN4NF9mNG05WkdLWXV2Tnc&usp=sharing Have a look for yourself. Note that I have taken the data at three-month quarterly intervals (March, June, September, and December) for brevity's sake, and also to align well with the average 18-month upgrade cycle, which is where the stochastic Markov-chain analysis goes into effect. I have several kinds of charts for the results... a Markov-chain result graph by upgrade cycle, a comScore data distribution by quarter, and a progressive Markov-chain comparison by operating system. The Markov-chain work is fitted to the data for as much time that I have comScore data for, and is predictive for the period that we do not yet have data for. Some items in the Markov-chain analysis, the part that is after June of 2014, are based on best guesses, but as the future becomes history these Markov-chain sections can be fitted to real data. The fitting results in a better understanding of how the loyalty trends by OS fluctuate over time.

19. HugoBarraCyanogenmod

Posts: 1412; Member since: Jul 06, 2014

only America still stuck in the apple-samsung duopoly era, where the rest enjoy even better product, typical 1st world capitalist jokes

17. Topcat488

Posts: 1424; Member since: Sep 29, 2012

12. teerex42

Posts: 221; Member since: Jun 14, 2012

I'm surprised capple still has any market share at all compared to sammy and android. The majority of the people I know have samsung or android! Must be the simple user interface and it's gloried ipod status lol

15. fanboy1974

Posts: 1345; Member since: Nov 12, 2011

I'm the biggest Android fanboy but I don't mind having Apple around. Some people like my wife just can't handle Android devices. And the iPhone I bought her 2 years ago is working just fine. Hopefully it goes another 2 year's for her. That means more upgrades for me.

25. joey_sfb

Posts: 6794; Member since: Mar 29, 2012

Understand your stand completely.

29. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

"That means more upgrades for me." Your wife is a very much woman. ;)

42. tedkord

Posts: 17519; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

much = lucky. Damned auto correct.

11. rodneyej1

Posts: 3576; Member since: Jul 06, 2013

.1% is growth...

14. sip1995

Posts: 1771; Member since: Feb 07, 2014

Sorry, but 0.1%=Nothing

18. register unregistered

Wrong.

33. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

There was NO new WP handset released during that period, and yet impressively, WP not only managed to keep its share, but also grow just a lil' bit. That's pretty good if you ask me.

28. arenanew

Posts: 286; Member since: Dec 30, 2013

now android fall time start with samung becoz android have 50 % share includind 15 % of forked . last year android have 37 % but now 34 % its show android is buggy os company just using as forked version is better becoz all google service drain battery fast . on the other window share upward with htc introducing window 8.1 phone . apple iis apple becoz many porn and posh people using apple .

8. nasznjoka

Posts: 418; Member since: Oct 05, 2012

No MS services named in the list? I can see why the big bro is busy locking down any chance of changing bing as the default search service . Anyway congrats Apple I can see lots of guys are buying iphones now that the price drops towards september

6. networkdood

Posts: 6330; Member since: Mar 31, 2010

Worldwide, Apple has less than 20% of the market...

4. shamatuu

Posts: 159; Member since: Nov 02, 2011

HTC fifth place?

36. GalaxyS5

Posts: 430; Member since: Aug 05, 2014

lol at 4 something %

2. billgates

Posts: 555; Member since: May 29, 2014

This is a big reason I dislike apple and Samsung. I like to be an individual and have a "different" less popular phone. Nothing passes me off when I'm with my buddies and it beeps and all of us pull out our samsung

5. PapaSmurf

Posts: 10457; Member since: May 14, 2012

Then change your ringtone to something different?

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