New prediction for Jelly Bean release almost gets it right

New prediction for Jelly Bean release almost gets it right
This is why we always say to take DigiTimes "predictions" with a big grain of salt. Just over one month ago, the company reported that because of slow adoption of Android 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, Google might rush out Android 5.0 Jelly Bean in Q2 of 2012. We systematically debunked that claim, although the main reason against such a move was that it would do exactly the opposite of what Android 4.0 intended: unify the ecosystem. 

Now, DigiTimes has a new prediction based on more talk from the same unknown industry sources. This time, the sources seem to understand the Android ecosystem a bit better, noting that while ICS has only captured about 2% of the market, that share will really begin to climb in Q2 when phones start shipping with ICS installed (once again pointing out how silly a predicted summer Jelly Bean release would have been). 

In a further burst of insight, the DigiTimes sources finally realize that a "rapid shift of OS may not be healthy for the development of the Android ecosystem." And, with that new insight, the prediction has changed from a Q2 release for Jelly Bean to a Q3 release. 

This is still a bit early in our estimation. Sure, it is possible that Google push up the release to September (the last month of Q3) in order to steal some release buzz from Microsoft's Windows 8 tablets, and to get in before Apple's big reveal of the next iPhone, which is likely to happen in October. However, Google seems to like that holiday season release window of November/December, so we'd still expect the company to stick to the same yearly schedule it has been on for the past few years. 

source: DigiTimes via BGR



1. alekso9

Posts: 40; Member since: Jan 30, 2012

I think they should give ICS sometime to adapt to everyone. Then release JB Next year.

6. muck1

Posts: 13; Member since: Mar 02, 2012

i second that they need put ICS on more phone first its only on 2 phone and one tab now and thats why alot of app devpl ar moving from android

16. bayusuputra

Posts: 963; Member since: Feb 12, 2012

noooo!!! don't release Justin Beiber!!! joking.. yeah, they should hold the release first, wait till ICS has captured significant market share first, just like what GB did..

28. yt6nin

Posts: 100; Member since: Nov 16, 2011

oh well, they released J.B. already, but come on, he brings with him so many stories that are just interesting... To him, it might be stories that may be undesirable, but to us, something to keep us entertained =P ;) But yea, I think Google should give ICS a run for its use in the current Android market, cuz I'm dying to get my hands on a new smartphone with ICS as stock. I WOULD HATE Google if they decide to release Jelly Bean and make it available stock on newly released smartphones when I'm upgrading, well before I get to tryout the ICS stock phones, when ICS was just recently announced and trying to become really the main stream Android OS. I already like the idea of having ICS as the OS and getting rid of the capacitive buttons on the phone, cuz I tend to accidentally press them when I didn't mean to. That's why I'm really hoping for and waiting for the manufacturers to release a phone like the Nexus, with no capacitive buttons below the screen for AT&T, but already that's not happening with the HTC One XL, and the SGSIII is still announced, fully clouded with rumors. I would love completely on-screen buttons, just want to tryout a full ICS smartphone and then I'll gladly move onto Jelly Bean when the time is right.

29. torr310

Posts: 1705; Member since: Oct 27, 2011

What if ICS is a failure and should we still have to anticipate it? I know many people are eager for the ICS and I guess it should be better than the Gingerbread... But it does not necessary mean it is a good release. Google may found out a better revision of Android than ICS... It definitely not a good thing to the developers to change the version so quick but I would skip the ICS if something better come out as I do not see any significant improvement from the Gingerbread to the ICS.

46. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

"Any significant improvement"? Are you smoking crack? iOS has never had an update that changed so much of the UI. The change from WinMo 6.5 to WinPhone 7 was a bigger UI change but that was a whole new OS just like Blackberry OS to QNX is a totally new OS. No existing OS have made such a huge UI update in a single small version upgrade have they? Not to mention all the new software additions like the camera upgrades and face unlock. You're insatiable man....

52. torr310

Posts: 1705; Member since: Oct 27, 2011

I saw Facebook change UI and not always liked by people. Changing UI doesn't mean improvement. The camera upgrade is good but Jelly Bean will have that included too. Face unlock isn't that practical/secure in case you don't know it can be unlocked by a photo or someone look alike. I do not know if there is any performance/battery life gain though.

2. cellphonator

Posts: 298; Member since: Oct 29, 2011

Are you serious? I understand technology is faster today, but come on, the international versions are just getting ICS now and they talk about JB? Can you say fragmentation? This is becoming a joke, but it's a rumor, fortunately.

3. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

How is it fragmentation to release an update? Is iOS fragmented because some users are on 5.x while others are on 4.x? Is Windows fragmented because some people are on Win 7 and others are on XP or Vista? No. All the apps work, it's just an update. Stop spreading negative propaganda.

5. jamrockjones

Posts: 345; Member since: Oct 26, 2011

Thank you!

7. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Come on Michael are you in denial that Android is fragmented also? While the situation may be overblown lets not pretend that it doesn't exist. Developers are struggling to get there apps to work nice with ICS and we are already talking about JB? Talk about putting the cart before the horse...

8. arcq12

Posts: 733; Member since: Oct 13, 2011

In that case, Fragmentation is not with the OS, its with the hardware! lol

10. iamcc

Posts: 1319; Member since: Oct 07, 2011

Developers are struggling to get their apps to work nice with ICS. Slow down there cowboy... what? I've had the Nexus since release day and have been able to use every single app I used on my Thunderbolt with little to no issues. The first week or two I had a force close here and there but other than that, no problems. It's worth noting I have about 100 apps on my phone roughly 25 or so being paid apps i've acquired over the last two years... no problems with any.

12. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Don't know what I said that makes you think I'm a cowboy but ok... I also have a Gnex and I have force closes often enough that its become very annoying, not to mention the other bugs with ICS. I don't want to appear to be bashing ICS It's just my opinion that before we start talking about JB that we refine what we already have. You even said you have "little to no issues" so you know the problems exist. Stop being a homer, it won't get any better if we just except it.

15. iamcc

Posts: 1319; Member since: Oct 07, 2011

By little to no issues I was referring to the 5-10 force closes I had the first two weeks I had the phone. Since then literally the ONLY force closes I have gotten were from the new Boid twitter app which is in alpha so I would expect. Maybe your device is defective. My girlfriend also has the Nexus and doesn't have any force closes either...

20. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

Updates don't cause fragmentation, forks like the Kindle Fire and B&N Nook cause fragmentation. The rest is just the way the ecosystem works, just like Windows. Multiple versions on various hardware setups, but it works anyway.

24. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

What....? "Multiple versions on various hardware setups" equals fragmented OS and the problem is that it DOESN'T work anyway.. stop kidding yourself.

26. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

If all it takes is "multiple versions on various hardware setups" stop kidding yourself that there is any platform in the world that isn't "fragmented".

27. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Never said that was all it takes.. But it is a contributing factor. You specifically said "updates don't cause fragmentation" that, my friend, is false. I also never even insinuated that there is any platform in the world that isn't fragmented. All platforms are fragmented, some to a greater degree than others and you can even admit that Android is one of them..

37. nnaatthhaannx2

Posts: 820; Member since: Oct 19, 2011

I just say that screen resolutions should be limited. I have so many games that aren't setup to work with my qhd display. Fruit Ninja (supported by a rather large company) is one.

50. kanagadeepan

Posts: 1278; Member since: Jan 24, 2012

No.... Fruit Ninja is working great in my Photon as well as CaptivateGlide...

17. cellphonator

Posts: 298; Member since: Oct 29, 2011

Michael, when a company releases an update, it HAS to be available to everybody within a reasonable time. You mentioned Apple, Window, how fast can you update with them when it's available AND you decide to update? How long do you get to use the update before the new one comes out? The all process with Google it's too slow, for various reasons but it is.

18. iamcc

Posts: 1319; Member since: Oct 07, 2011

This is where I disagree with people. I don't understand why it "has" to be available for everyone. If Volkswagen comes out with a new engine for the Jetta that gets better mileage than my 2011 I don't expect them to retrofit my car with it do I? If you buy a phone and it's advertised as being updated to the newest software then I understand the complaint... but s**t, the Nexus phones aren't even advertised that way it's just assumed. Everyone needs to get over it. If you get the latest upgrades, great. If not, too bad. The phones still function and can still run all (if not all then most) of the apps on the market.

22. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Your analogy with the car and a new engine is tied for the most ignorant thing I've read on the internet today. Updating the software on a cellphone is in no way similar to updating a motor in your car, and Volkswagen never said that they would make such an upgrade were as Google has stated that our phones would be upgraded.. Try again

23. iamcc

Posts: 1319; Member since: Oct 07, 2011

Oh, Google stated that all Android phones would be updated to the latest software? Is that the comment you were referring to when you said mine was tied for the most ignorant thing you've read today?

25. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

No your tied with Michaelhellers first comment..

31. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

OK, here is a better analogy. You go buy a PC from Dell and it has Windows Vista on it. 2 weeks later MS releases Windows 7. Do you think your entitled to that update? NO. People need to get over this "i demand the newest version, immediately" BS, because its just BS. You buy the phone for what it is when you bought it. Unless you specifically get a letter from the manufacturer stating that it will be garunteeing a future OS update, u should never expect more than bug patches and fixes. PERIOD. It wasnt until the rise of android that people even started caring about what version they were on. Its an entirely new phenomenon. Before now it was only the biggest geeks that even knew there was an update, ever. BTW, iOS is WAY MORE fragmented than Android. Dont kid yourself. Android get more publicity about it, but iOS is worse. Android gives you updates over the air. on iOS you have to know there is an update, and then physically hook up to iTunes to get it. Do you really think the bulk of customers have been doing that since the iphone2g launched??? common sense. most of them think they have a "4g" iphone when they bought the iphone4, they sure as hell are not smart enough to keep up with updates.

33. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Your analogy is better but proves nothing.. If you buy a Dell PC with Vista and 2 weeks later Windows 7 is released as long as your computer meets the system requirements you can purchase the update.. I have a Gnex because I wanted the latest OS and to be first to get updates. I also bought the RMaxx and it was well publicized that it would be upgraded to the latest OS. My problem isn't the timeliness of the updates so much as it is what this does to add to the fragmentation of Android. To be having a conversation about JB when more than 90% of current Android phones are not even on the latest OS seems like they are putting the cart before the horse.

35. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

let me just stop ya there. notice how you said "purchase the update". If you want the new windows version, you have to go buy it. why should cell phones give it away for free constantly? you bought a nexus expecting the update? really? why is that? oh because GOOGLE TOLD YOU that you can expect the update. People are still on XP and Vista by large margins and Windows is already about to go to Windows8.. but yet you dont hear people screaming that they havent gotten their free upgrade to Vista yet, much less 7, so there for 8 must not come out. Android and other systems are run differently. Android has more in common with the windows PC update process than with iOS. Android puts the product out and waits for people to go get it. Google does not retain direct control of the devices like Apple does. Just like microsoft does not have direct control of your PC. When a new windows OS comes out, there are PC vendors that sell both the new and old versions of windows, with different sub versions (basic, professional, ect). Why is that any different? The only reason people know or care about these updates, is because the rumor mill never stops pumping out crap story after crap story to garner readership. Who cares about JB, ITS NOT OUT yet. Would it be any different if we were talking about Keylime pie or Lemon merange pie? (gettin Its ALL 100% RUMORS. Lets talk about iOS7 while were at it. Does it make a difference on iOS5 adoption rates? No. Android fragmentation is all in the reader's mind..

38. jldleo

Posts: 38; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Come on Remixfa you have a better argument than that don't you? "Why should cell phones give it away for free constantly?" because they said they would.. Whats wrong with expecting to receive an update if that is what we have been told? Your counter PC upgrade argument is lame... In my previous post I was just simply saying that conversation about JB is premature considering ICS is on less than 5% of android devices now. If "Android fragmentation is all in the readers mind" that would explain why you don't think it exist..

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