Morgan Stanley analyst lowers her estimate of tablet growth this year by more than half

Morgan Stanley analyst lowers her estimate of tablet growth this year by more than half
Apple reported a drop in iPad sales for its fiscal second quarter. For the three month period that expired at the end of March, Apple sold 16.3 million tablets vs. 19.5 million during the same three month period from the year before. Better get used to declining iPad sales, says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty. In fact, Huberty says that analysts and consumers should be prepared for declining tablet sales generally.      

For 2014, Huberty is slashing her expectations for overall tablet growth from  26% to 12%. What would cause a Wall Street numbers pusher to cut her prediction for 2014 growth in tablet sales by more than half? For one, Huberty sees an increase in penetration rates, which means that many who want a tablet, already have one. And unlike smartphones, which continue to offer new specs and improved features and hardware, there is really no urgency to upgrade to a new model every few years.     

Android slates are less affected than iPads are. Tablets powered by Google's open source OS have more of a selection based on pricing, and screen sizes. But the Morgan Stanley analyst also decries the lack of innovation in the tablet market as a whole, for the drop in her estimate. The Apple iPad is credited with starting the whole tablet category in 2010. While other manufacturers have had to play catch up, Apple dominated the tablet industry until Samsung and low-cost Android players caught up.


And with Apple expected to release a pair of larger screened iPhones this year, there is no telling how many iPad sales could be cannibalized by sales of these iOS flavored handsets.


source: BusinessInsider                              

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23 Comments

1. BattleBrat

Posts: 1476; Member since: Oct 26, 2011

My Sony Xperia tablet S is getting long in the tooth. I've been eyeing the Tegra note and Galaxy Note pro, but im waiting for the Tegra K1 dual core to come out...

2. Arte-8800

Posts: 4562; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

Powerful A15s on board I'm waiting for the NotePro with Eyxnos 5430 with SuperAmoled

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7028; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

I would drop it as well based on iPad pricing. They are too much money for what you are getting. What I would like to see is an android/chrome OS tablet combo.

5. Arte-8800

Posts: 4562; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

Just paying for the logo and quality apps and service

6. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

Apple service is very good (except if you are far away from an Apple store). Maybe some of the apps are good too, but after using Samsung tablets for some time, I've come to think that "one button" is a flawed design. I really like the back button and menu and/or app switch button. Very handy compared to the iPad.

8. Arte-8800

Posts: 4562; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

Just like on their Galaxy S series

10. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

And the Galaxy Notes.

3. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

"the lack of innovation in the tablet market as a whole" Pretty much explains it, but price is also an issue. Prices from most tablet vendors exceed that of much better spec laptops. Only Samsung offers a nice high resolution tablet at a reasonable price -- the TabPro 8.4. The rest of the name brand tablet market is radically overpriced.

7. fanboy1974

Posts: 1345; Member since: Nov 12, 2011

Right at this moment I have a Note 3 in my left hand and a pork chop in the right. Using my right pinkie finger to bang this out. Impossible to do this with a tablet.

9. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

With pork chop proof Sony Xperia tablet, you can just put pork chop on top of tablet, type below the chop, and take bite of pork when you want. Screen will even keep chop warm for you. Very nice Xperience from Sony.

11. Arte-8800

Posts: 4562; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

But the design is stunning on the Z tablet Pure oblong with sharp edges

14. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

Are you saying that you could also cut the pork chop using the edges of the Sony Z Tablet? That's awesome. Haute tablet cuisine at its finest.

12. PBXtech

Posts: 1032; Member since: Oct 21, 2013

Unless you have a business use or use them in a power user capacity, tablets aren't like phones, you don't need to upgrade every two years. Tablet quality has gotten so good, it doesn't make as much sense to replace them annually, or every two years. For a gaming and internet platform, my year old tablet is perfectly fine, still happy with my Sony Z tablet.

13. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

I'm currently using a Nexus 7 (2012). I just wanted a suggestion from those who're using the iPad mini retina. How is the tablet? The performance and apps? I was originally considering the Surface mini, but if it comes with WinRT, I wont be getting it. I'll only be getting it if it has full Windows. I don't want to go Android again. And since the iPad has a great design and apps, I'm seriously considering it. Just wanted to know from those who are using it atm.

15. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

There is no substitute for trying it yourself. I'm not a big fan of the iPads and don't own either of Apple's latest tablets, but we have plenty of them at work. The iPad mini retina has a noticeably poorer quality screen compared to the iPad Air. The audio output via the headphone jack is also worse than the Air. If you do music on the iPad, get the iPad Air as the additional screen real estate is quite worthwhile. In any case, unless you really need a tablet right now, I would wait and see what Apple introduces in the next few months. Chances are they will fix some of the deficiencies of the iPad mini retina.

17. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

But dude, I can't wait till December for a new tablet. My Nexus 7 is in pretty bad shape (in terms of performance), and Apple generally release their products quite late in India as compared to other countries. I know that the iPad Air is better than the retina mini, but I don't really require a huge tablet. Perhaps the Samsung Galaxy tabPRO 8.4 could suit my needs.

19. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

IMO, the difference between the TabPro 8.4 and the iPad mini retina is the apps. In my experience and usage, except for Firefox, the iPad mini has better apps, more apps, and a better app store. As far as hardware, they are both nice well made tablets. The screens on both are pretty good, the Samsung being a bit better. The audio is a bit better on the iPad mini retina, even though it is not great. For example, the iPad Air has better volume and sounds clearer than either of these two tablets. The metal case of the iPad mini retina is nicer than the plastic of the Samsung IMO. Although it can surprise you on a cold day. Perhaps not your greatest worry in India :) One option would be to get a refurb iPad mini retina, if this option is available in India (refurb mini retina iPads appeared just recently in the US store -- 16GB for $339, 32GB for $419, 64GB for $509, 128GB for $589, all wifi). This will save you a bit of money. As you know, Apple products usually hold their value pretty well, so you can always sell it and go with something else without a large monetary loss.

21. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

Thanks alot for the info dude. Really helpful. :) I'll mostly opt for an iPad due to the superior apps and built quality.

22. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

An iPad is a good thing to have, even if it's just for a few years. When I had mine, I got to play with some good apps, especially for music. The new iPads with the A7 are much speedier than the old ones, I think you'll like that. I may add an iPad back into the mix after the new ones come out, especially if Apple makes one with a pen input. Samsung's pen tablets are great -- some of my favorite computing devices -- but the app support for the Wacom pen is not so great. And portability of the files I make between the tablet and the desktop is poor too. I think there will be more/better pen apps if Apple adds high resolution Wacom-style pen support to the iPad (or iPad Pro).

16. Lt.Green

Posts: 397; Member since: Mar 13, 2014

My current tablet will be the first and last tablet I buy. Likely the same goes with most people.

18. NokiaFTW

Posts: 2072; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

I've been using my Nexus 7 (2012) since late 2012, and the performance was smooth until the Android 4.3 update. After I updated, things went downhill and got worse after the KitKat update. That's why I don't want an Android tablet.

20. johnyjackson unregistered

People failed to have reason to use tablet. Display is not good for reading document. They should invent new paper-like display.

23. 0xFFFF

Posts: 3806; Member since: Apr 16, 2014

Sony actually has made something that is interesting -- a 13" e-ink device. It's not perfect as it is really a somewhat expensive first generation device, but it is promising and a sign of better things to come in the future. "After almost a year of agonizing posturing by Sony, the semi-flexible 13.3-inch Digital Paper has finally been unveiled. For $1100, you can get your hands on the thinnest, lightest A4-sized e-ink tablet. The Digital Paper supports stylus input, has built-in WiFi, and lasts up to three weeks on a single charge. The key technology here is the new Mobius display from E Ink, which is very light and highly flexible — though it isn’t clear how much of that flexibility made it into the final Digital Paper product." http://www.extremetech.com/computing/179386-sonys-13-inch-digital-paper-is-the-first-device-to-use-a-flexible-e-ink-display

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