KGI: the Apple iPhone 6S series might not be the commercial success that some anticipate

KGI: the Apple iPhone 6S series might not be the commercial success that some anticipate
Although some estimate that the upcoming iPhone 6S and the iPhone 6S Plus will translate into a huge commercial success for Apple due to the internal improvements that the two new handsets are expected to bring to the table, it looks like some analysts are starting to question the commercial performance of the upcoming iPhone 6S series.

According to a KGI Securities analyst quoted by a recent report from Taiwan, the launch of the iPhone 6S series will not translate into a year-on-year sales growth for Apple during the fourth quarter. In fact, the analyst is quoted stating that Apple's Q4 2015 iPhone sales might actually shrink compared to the manufacturer's reported iPhone sales for Q4 2014.

If the analyst's predictions turn out to be accurate, Apple will sell between 65 and 75 million iPhones during the December quarter of 2015. In other terms, the company might experience zero or negative iPhone sales growth despite introducing new iPhone models next month. Remember that Apple says it has sold 74.5 million iPhones during Q4 2014.

As far as the reasons behind this plateau, the analyst reportedly pointed towards a combination of two main factors. First, smartphone sales in China - the largest smartphone market at the moment and a main driver behind the impressive iPhone 6 sales - are starting to shrink due to a declining economy. Second, the analyst believes that Force Touch, one of the main improvements expected to be introduced with the new iPhone models and probably the one thing that Apple is going to focus on in its marketing campaigns for the iPhone 6S series, will not impress customers.

Indeed, although the possible implementations of Force Touch could lead to a new way of interacting with smartphones, the new pressure-sensing technology is not likely to have an impact that's comparable to the larger form factors that Apple introduced last year with the iPhone 6 and the iPhone 6 Plus.

This is not the first report to claim that Apple's Q4 iPhone sales could go flat following the launch of the iPhone 6S series. Back in early June, Wells Fargo analysts Maynard Um, Munjal Shah and Jason Ng, claimed that Apple will sell about as many iPhones during the fourth quarter of 2015 as it did back in Q4 2014.

What do you guys think? Will the iPhone 6S be the first S-cycle iPhone series that doesn't sell better than the previous generation?

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104 Comments

1. gaming64 unregistered

Cause there's no intention for buyers to. Despite Force Touch and a stronger body and updated chip, it still not a reason to upgrade. Most people have either bought 64 GB versions and 99%of the total iPhone 6 buyers arent even tech-savvy. Sorry but it's the truth.

3. -Shadow-

Posts: 95; Member since: Mar 26, 2013

Also should be noted that a big reason for huge sale of 6/6+ is the big increase in screen size, so people who had a iphone 5/5s felt that they need an upgrade, this year will be less impressive for apple than last year even if still very profitable.

12. SamsungPhanboy

Posts: 765; Member since: Mar 31, 2015

I honestly can't believe phonearena posted this s**t, cuh. Let alone, a firm feeling the need to analyze this "plateau." The main reasons behind this: 1. The world has already been introduced to the large screen iPhone and 2. It's an "S" year. No need for silly in-depth analysis.

18. j2001m

Posts: 3060; Member since: Apr 28, 2014

There will also be no subs in the USA, so customer will soon work out they not paying just $200 for there phone and can have the same phone plan with a moto for $400 in total and not having to pay way more for the phone, In the USA this year there going to be big changes, the basic customer is thinking there iphone costs $200, oh and they then get more back when they go to sell it, not this time

60. tedkord

Posts: 16975; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

They've never been paying only $200 for their phone. They've been paying $200 up front, then paying the rest (and more) over the next two years.

19. sgodsell

Posts: 6588; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Not to mention the prices have risen through the roof. If all they are adding is force touch which just adds to your input methods. This is not earth shattering. So there is really only 3 spec bumps, ram, processor, and force touch. So if you have a 6/6+, then there is no need to upgrade. I see in the competition camp a movement in offering good specs at reasonable prices. Something iPhone users have never or will ever see. I think Apples greed is starting to catch up with them.

24. KRONeage

Posts: 144; Member since: Apr 17, 2011

Apple has yet to crack even half the sales numbers as Samsung Phone Division. Two quarters last year saw Samsung break 100 million smartphones sold. Even though no one wants to face the truth, about this, Samsung has been the #1 smartphone seller 4 yrs in a row and have managed to come close to tripling up on Apple iPhone sales in 2013! This year again, even with Samsung selling less low end models, they'll again remain #1 smartphone maker this year too... by near double! Fact is Apple wants everyone to believe all iPhone models sold are all iPhone 6 or 6+ models. Reality is that only around 30% of iPhones sold are actually latest models. In China they are still selling more iPhone 4, 4s, 5, 5s, 5c combined than both iPhone 6 models combined. Because they use their old phone models as low end device sales. It's the old Game Console thing of them making most profits on the old models sold. That don't need to pay high design and production costs of making low end models! ........and that's the primary reason Samsung blew Apple away these last two quarters in the US market!

31. Ninetysix

Posts: 2931; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

Samsung blew away Apple..hehehe http://tinyurl.com/o88ko85

39. natypes

Posts: 1110; Member since: Feb 02, 2015

The world is actually bigger than the US. dumkunt

41. Ninetysix

Posts: 2931; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

Tell me which peasant country you're from and we'll come invade...

56. natypes

Posts: 1110; Member since: Feb 02, 2015

I'm from/in the US, I'm just much smarter than you.

58. Ninetysix

Posts: 2931; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

61. natypes

Posts: 1110; Member since: Feb 02, 2015

back to the misc fgt

62. Ninetysix

Posts: 2931; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

notsureifsrs... u aweir? Stay safe. Das not it mane.

78. natypes

Posts: 1110; Member since: Feb 02, 2015

I can confirm I am mod

46. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

53. -Shadow-

Posts: 95; Member since: Mar 26, 2013

Dude apple has the biggest margin of profit from smatphone sales, they don't need to beat Samsung in Smartphone numbers, samsung does't make much from low end phones and even their flagships have major decreases in price in 2-4 months after release.I can by a S6 for 500 Euro meanwhile a 1 year old Iphone 6 costs 600.

59. nepalisherpa

Posts: 331; Member since: Jul 17, 2015

Even a dumbass knows that Samsung sells more phones than Apple. That's because Samsung comes out with all kinds of crappy variants. They seem to release new models almost every couple of months. Let's see them be #1 in sales with just S and Note series.

64. sgodsell

Posts: 6588; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

The world is bigger then just Apple. A lot of countries cannot afford to pay Apple prices. Did you even know that? Did you also know Apple only has one price tier, high? So Samsung does sell more, because people can buy a brand new Samsung device off contract for less then you can buy a new iPhone on contract. Forget off contract iPhone prices. Sure Apple makes more money. But Samsung sells the vast majority of Smartphones in the world.

70. nepalisherpa

Posts: 331; Member since: Jul 17, 2015

Yes, I know that. I was just giving him a reason as to why Samsung sales are higher than Apple.

22. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

I guess you do t realize that there is an "S" model that comes out every two years. Each is similiar to the previous model with some minor spec bumps to the processor and camera. Each iteration has sold more than the previous model. After the iPhone being out for 9 years, people like you are still making this dumb comment and look completely stupid come September. Save it this year!

37. Finalflash

Posts: 4049; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

The iPhone 3gs and 4s were both released when the market was still young and growing. The iPhone 5s was released when the smartphone market was matured, but they released it in Japan for the first time boosting their numbers. Then for the iPhone 6 they released it in China for the first time boosting their numbers again. Plus all the pent up frustration of small screened iPhone users was released last year, after years of fighting cognitive dissonance and rationalizing their purchase by lying to themselves that it was small by design. This time, unless they release in India or something, there will be no major number booster. Also since the blew their big screen load last year, this year they have nothing at all. At best they'll probably match last year's numbers unless they find a new large market where they weren't officially selling. Plus most people who "switched" from Android (lots of them according to cook) probably got a taste of iOS and likely, half of them will switch back.

32. Ahovking

Posts: 711; Member since: Feb 03, 2015

IOS is super efficient and has a lot less features than android, this is why there is a spec difference between IPhone and Android devices. When it comes to graphical performance the iPhone can easily outperform any android device. Most Apple user understand for great performance and great experience you don't need to stuff your phones with hardware.

42. Finalflash

Posts: 4049; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

iOS isn't efficient, that's just a BS marketing point. iOS efficiency as Apple fans put it is the same as me chopping my arm off and saying I'm more efficient because I use less energy now. That isn't efficient, because by that metric the most efficient phone is one that's turned off. The S6 edge beat the iPhone 6 plus in almost (all I think) every metric in multiple reviews while having an AMOLED quad HD display and smaller battery. That, while having more features, having more RAM and doing a lot more. That is efficiency and it applies to most top end Android phones versus the iPhones.

74. Ahovking

Posts: 711; Member since: Feb 03, 2015

I’ll give you one example of how IOS is more efficient.. The iPhone 6 with 1GB of RAM runs much faster than a similarly specced Android smartphone with 2GB of RAM. And it all has to do with the fundamental difference in the way iOS and Android handle apps. You see Android apps use Java, and need all the extra RAM to do something called garbage collection. Garbage collection, is a process that triggers the recycling of memory once an Android app is done using it. Usually, this works pretty well on systems that have a lot of free RAM, but once you get a lot of different apps running, things start getting dicey. As for iOS? The operating system doesn’t need all the extra memory associated with Java and Android, since it was designed to avoid this sort of garbage collection from scratch. It only needs the memory it’s using. Link: Why is the iPhone's 1 GB RAM touted to be able to compete with more than 2 GB RAM of Android phones?http://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-iPhones-1-GB-RAM-touted-to-be-able-to-compete-with-more-than-2-GB-RAM-of-Android-phones/answers/7061202

82. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

And thats why it cant multi-task where all other android phones can do a real multi-task. Garbage collection is already being reduced tremendously on all apps by ART. Android phones with 1440p needs more ram than iphone 6 with 750p. Check how safari starts reloading tabs when you use all the ram. iOS cant multitask and therefore it can go with 1GB of ram but now in iOS9 multi-window feature will be only available on devices with more ram only ipad air 2 (2gb ram). If iOS start using real multi-task on iphones it will need more ram. No wonder why are they now adding more ram in upcoming iphone 6s. RAM btw doesnt even matter in speed opening apps but rather in keeping them in memory and thats where Android shine. The iPhone 6 with 1GB of RAM runs much faster than a similarly specced Android smartphone with 2GB of RAM Nope. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrTKhMWt4x8 Mind you, moto was using 4.4.4, live wallpaper and slower CPU and GPU and was still able to keep up and in some beat iphone 6.

84. Ahovking

Posts: 711; Member since: Feb 03, 2015

It can simi multi-task which has worked out real well and in speeds test hasn't stopped the iphone betting most 2014 flagship phones. What is holding it back is the lack of ram.. thats all, android is still incredibly wasteful. Here are three 2014 phones, Galaxy S5, HTC M8 and the Iphone 6..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCln9_mgZJo The iPhone is faster, and no doubt the iPhone 6s will be just like the IPhone 6 and be faster than Galaxy S6, HTC M9. And hell Both the iphone and Moto seemed pretty much even, both phones have their own advantage for example when it comes to apps and games, Apple is faster than the Motohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWclzFG-SKc

86. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

Here are 2014 phones (note 4 wasnt even on lollipop btw) with QHD beating iphone 6 with 750p: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV2X51kAVfc Here is note 4 QHD (again not on lollipop) beating iphone 6 plus with 1080p: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVkaY-F6Zhs I cant find Galaxy S5 plus with same SoC like note 4 but with 1080p screen it would kill iphone in speed test. Moto X was using 801 snapdragon, if that used 805 it would do much better since gpu and cpu are upgraded. Even with 801 it kept going great. Moto g (1gb ram, sd 400, 720p) was same like iphone 6 in speed test proving my point that even with real multitask android can win in a lot of points. Imagine android with not real multitask like on ios.

88. Ahovking

Posts: 711; Member since: Feb 03, 2015

I just showed you the Moto X being crashed by the iPhone...While your showing the an upgraded and updaded 2015 Moto X crashing a 2014 iPhone.. bais as hell my friend. Like it or not but the only Phone that can constantly crash an iPhone is a Note. And for a 2012 spec Phone that is incredibly impressive and proves you don't need lots of ram or spec to be fast or power.

89. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

Where did I show updated moto x from 2015? I showed moto g which is way weaker than moto x that can take on iphone while having multi-task. Moto x from 2015 is called moto x style... i dont see anywhere in my links. Good try. Moto x from 2014 wasnt crashed at all lol. Too bad android has more features while running on top of every device and still able to beat iphone. Nexus line has always beat iphone cause of stock android. Even phones with TW that has ton more features that any skin from mobiles managed to do that while pushing double the pixels so do the math. "And for a 2012 spec Phone that is incredibly impressive and proves you don't need lots of ram or spec to be fast or power." It only proves that you are running low on features no that you are optimized lol. Why ipad air 2 has 2gb of ram? Cause it need for split view otherwise with 1gb of ram it wont be able to even load 20% of it. Moto g has 1gb of ram and can do full multi-task so tell me who is more optimized?

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