Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year

Sure, some other phone launched today, it's supposed to be a big deal. What is it called again? Ah, just kidding. We all know that the latest Android flagship model has just been unveiled and that the Samsung Galaxy S 4 is going to be on everyone's mind for a long time. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't other news on Thursday involving other handsets. For example, Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19. The shares currently trade hands at $15.06.

More importantly, Jankowski expects BlackBerry 10 sales to hit 500,000 units in the first quarter, which covered a limited release for February and March. Once the U.S. carriers do their thing (AT&T will launch the Z10 on March 22nd at $199.99 on contract with Verizon to follow at the same price the following week), the analyst expects to see BlackBerry 10 sales of two to three million units each quarter for the rest of the year. At the low end of her projection, that would mean 6.5 million units will be sold in the first 12 months. At the high end, that number would be 9.5 million. Those number are certainly nowhere near the 100 million units Samsung says that the Samsung Galaxy S 4 will sell in its first year. In fact, it is even less than the 10 million units that the just announced handset is expected to do in its first month. But that is more a statement about the Samsung Galaxy S 4 than an indictment about the BlackBerry Z10.

In a few weeks, we should see the launch of the QWERTY equipped BlackBerry Q10 trace out roughly the same launch pattern that the Z10 followed. There are some analysts who believe that because of the strength of the QWERTY on the device, the Q10 will prove to be the BlackBerry 10 model carrying the most demand. In the meanwhile, Jankowski says that her checks of retailers shows demand for the BlackBerry Z10 above and beyond what she had expected. She expects that if this strength continues, BlackBerry will be able to raise the price for the phone and increase its profit margins. Yes, for BlackBerry to succeed, it is going to have to take baby steps. The only question is if the company has the time to learn how to walk before it has to start running.


source: Barron's via BGR