Gartner sees year-over-year decline in mobile phone shipments this year


Research firm Gartner is expecting 2016 to be a down year for shipments of mobile phones. The number of mobile phones in transit during the year are expected to decline by 1.6%. If the forecast comes true, it will be the second consecutive year of lower shipments in the industry. Last year. mobile phone deliveries declined by .75% from the prior year.

Gartner expects mobile phone shipments to return to positive growth in 2017. Gartner sees mobile phone shipments rising 1.2% in 2017 to 1.9 billion units from the 1.89 billion expected to be delivered this year. In 2018, mobile phone shipments are estimated to rise 1.2% to 1.93 million handsets.

Android shipments will be helped by Chinese made handsets that offer high specs at a value price. Apple will report a year-over-year decline in iPhone deliveries this year, leading to a 1.1% drop in premium smartphone shipments in 2016. Premium models will return to growth in 2017 according to Gartner, with a estimated 3.5% hike in such deliveries next year attributed to a pick up in the replacement cycle.

Tablet shipments are expected to continue to decline. This year, shipments of these slates are expected to add up to 177 million units, a 9.7% drop from the 196 million shipped in 2015. Next year, Gartner expects a smaller decline of 2.3% to 173 million tablets shipped. 2018 will be a flat year, according to Gartner, possibly foreshadowing a return to growth ion 2019.

source: Gartner

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7 Comments

1. Martineverest

Posts: 521; Member since: Oct 27, 2015

declining smartphones are paving way for AR....its time for apple and google to sit up

5. sgodsell

Posts: 7209; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

This does not represent smartphones. This is representing all phones which is including feature phones as well. Smart phone growth has continued to climb every quarter. Smartphones are suppose to get to over 1.45 billion devices this year, with the vast majority being Android. The first two quarters Android saw 600 million smartphones sold in 6 months alone. We are still waiting to see smartphone sales for the 3 months ending in September.

2. sgtdisturbed47

Posts: 966; Member since: Feb 02, 2012

Smartphones are stale and the same thing every year, so no wonder. Also, the smartphone market is approaching saturation, if it hasn't already, and this will cause the market to slump. Not everyone is buying a new phone every year, especially with what's available THIS year. It's been nothing but disappointing rehash ideas with very little innovation. Fingerprint sensors, dual cameras, etc. Image processing has improved, but there's only so much that software can do to those photos given the fact that the image sensors are so tiny. Fingerprint sensors are the norm now, and battery life still barely breaks the 2 day mark, except for a few very large handsets. Major changes need to happen. This stuff today look no better than last year.

6. sgodsell

Posts: 7209; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

There is still advancement in smartphones accessories and add ons. Like VR, home appliances, smart watch, module add ons for some smartphones like Motorola's Moto Z. It's still evolving in some areas. Btw smartphones have continued to grow. This 1.9 billion phones includes feature phones as well. As a matter of fact why anyone would still buy a feature phone is beyond me. Especially since some smartphones are already at feature phone prices.

7. TerryTerius unregistered

Saturation and high consumer happiness with their current devices are the bigger components here than a perceived lack of innovation. But this is something that was inevitable, I'm fairly certain all the major companies planned for this. If they're smart. Thing about major change is, it comes in fits and starts. It isn't for lack of trying, sometimes it just takes a while for breakthroughs to happen. And we could be waiting for the next evolution in communication.

3. cncrim

Posts: 1586; Member since: Aug 15, 2011

I'm not surprise the smartphone is declining, what surprising me is it only declining by 1.2%. I alway though the phone will be decline 3-3.5% each year.

4. sgtdisturbed47

Posts: 966; Member since: Feb 02, 2012

Why would you think it would be 3-3.5% decline instead? That's pretty specific.

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