Deutsche Bank says analysts are too bullish on the Apple iPhone 8

Deutsche Bank says analysts are too bullish on the Apple iPhone 8
A vast majority of the analysts who have publicly commented on their estimates for Apple iPhone 8 sales or shipments, have been bullish about the device. Back in March, Morgan Stanley tech analyst Katy Huberty said that she expects Apple to sell 20% more iPhone units on a year-to-year basis in fiscal year 2018, thanks to the 10th anniversary model. That translates into a 30% gain in revenue for the year. KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, considered the top in his craft, said last year that the iPhone 8 could be the best selling iPhone model of all time. The phone would have to sell in excess of 120 million units over 12 months to top the current title holder, the Apple iPhone 6.

But not all trading houses are bullish about the iPhone 8. Germany's Deutsche Bank says that Wall Street's expectations for the device are too high, and that the launch of the 10th  anniversary model will result in a regular cycle of iPhone sales, not the "supercycle" that some analysts are predicting. For example, Nomura Securities stated at the beginning of this year that the last iPhone supercycle took place in fiscal year 2015 with the launch of the iPhone 6, as Apple increased the size of the iPhone's display and debuted the 5.5-inch iPhone Plus phablet.

With the iOS base now 45%-50% larger than it was back then, according to Nomura analysts Jeffrey Kvaal and Gregory McNiff, the pair expect Apple to sell 86 million iPhone handsets during Q1 of fiscal year 2018. That period runs from October through December of 2017. The Wall Street consensus calls for sales of 80 million iPhone units during that time period.

For all of fiscal year 2018, which runs from October 2017 to October 2018 for Apple, Deutsche Bank sees Apple shipping 230 million iPhone units compared to the 231 million units it delivered at the start of the last supercycle in fiscal year 2015. To show you how bearish the German bank is compared to the rest of the Street, money center trading houses expect Apple to ship 244 million handsets during fiscal year 2018. Deutsche Bank says it can not fathom where Wall Street expects all of these iPhone buyers to come from in fiscal year 2018.


source: CNBC

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11 Comments

1. PhoneCritic

Posts: 1354; Member since: Oct 05, 2011

Only time will tell. DB is on the side of caution here. Understandable.

2. trojan_horse

Posts: 5868; Member since: May 06, 2016

If only time will tell, then I wonder the importance for predictions/estimates and whatever else from Analysis firms...Clearly they can't tell.

4. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

To push sales of their basket of stocks so they can cash out before the crash they cause.

3. Subie

Posts: 2350; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

No matter which analyst is closer, the truth is - Apple's still going to make a boat load of money come this fall and next year.

5. tedkord

Posts: 17303; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Yeah, but you know how Wall Street is. If they expect you to make 50 billion dollars, and you only make 48 billion, they go into a blind panic.

6. Subie

Posts: 2350; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

Yup, they'll be panicking alright... that they've over paid their analysts ;)

7. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

So I was thinking with 3 models, Apple will likely sell 80M+. But then I though, ther may be a g=few very unhappy iPhone 6 owners who may not upgrade when you consider over 2 years 220M people bought an iPhone 6, only for more than 1/2 of them to fail. So this could hurt sales, just like Iafsn claimed the Note 7 issues hurt the S8 sales, which I doubt very much. The fact is, 90% of the Note 7 owners took an S7 or S7 edge, so now they dont qualify for an upgrade, unless they are on some type of Jump program.So maybe they want an S8 and simply cant buy one. But all iPhone 6 owners can upgrade to the iPhone 8, and I guarantee right now, Apple and carriers will create deals to get them sold. So this is my predictions: 1st - carriers will offer 40% off the price if you trade in a iPhone 6 model of any kind. And up to half off if you trade in an iPhone 7, via whatever iPhone Forever or Jump plan carriers have available. They will also offer deals if you trade in a top android like an S6/S7 or even the S8. For me, for as long as I have an account with VZW, I will NEVER have to put any money upfront on a device, not even the taxes. Others have this too. Apple will find ways to make it sell and so will carriers. Including making sure its in short supply so they can sell it next year too.

8. zunaidahmed

Posts: 1183; Member since: Dec 24, 2011

Good thing you don't work in Wall Street, or you would cause chaos with your stupid predictions

9. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Really? Well lets see. Right here right now I can buy a brand new Galaxy S8 for nearly 40% less right here -http://www.ebay.com/itm/Samsung-Galaxy-S8-SM-G950FD-Dual-Sim-FACTORY-UNLOCKED-Black-Gold-Gray-Blue-/201909374302?var=&hash=item2f02bc8d5e:m:mxHf7iW6d6RMlsIIdZWrbuQ This price for an unlocked model is less than the $750 carriers are charging or more. The S8 unlocked would for sure work on ATT and TMobile. The iPhone 8 is gonna sell because of how Apple is gonna try to market it. Which I dont care. I dont want one. Oh and I do recall iPhone deals where trading in a Plus model would get you the base iPhone for free or pay a extra cost for the Plus. But you got a discount. We wee this all the time. Never in the jistory of the iPhone, did the iPhone ever have any Forever Lease plans or add to your bill. If you wanted an expensive phone, you had to put half upfront and the rest is built into their 24 month term. Which hasn't change. The iPhone 7 was free on preorder and that deal lasted for 3 out of 4 quarters. Then the BOGO deals. Apple and carriers have always made it easy to upgrade from one iPhone to another, but new plans came because they dont want to subsidize the price. Yet they still are. They've already paid for the phone. People who have S7's for the Note 7 issue, won't be in a upgrade cycle until after September. Well so the iPhone 8 could be delayed until that time, which would allow for possible switcers. It is a give that there are Android users who want an iPhone is its worth it to them. And even if the iPhone is $1300, people will find a way to get them and carriers will to. After all, Apple doesnt have more stores than carriers. Carriers sell way more phones than Apple does from their stores or website combined. Apple is beginning to use deals the same way Android OEM's did, to entice more buyers at whatever price. If you want it you buy it no matter what it costs. IPhone have never had this in history and these deals are driving sales. After all, the last sales numbers stated, even thought carriers offer BOGO and other discounts on Galaxy series phones and the iPhone, Apple still got most of the buys, even with the same deal. So even if this phone was $1300, trust me they will find a away to get you to buy it. Its all about price and right now carriers are at a point that all they can compete with is, coverage and price. After all, most people buy phones on some type of contract plan, they dont pay full price. So since there are not gonna be 100M people with $1300 just laying around, then how else are they going to get you to buy something you cant afford? Many people who have fancy phones because they are allowed to pay for it over time just like buying a car. And the fact is is that sellers really wants you to buy, he is going to find a way to make you afford it. Back in the old days, carriers paid 50% of the cost or more. There has never been a iPhone Forever or Galaxy Forever plan before.

11. Odiin

Posts: 373; Member since: Apr 23, 2013

+1 ha ha ha!

10. joey18

Posts: 665; Member since: Jul 20, 2010

Iphone 8 ---- 1200 is so crazy for the price has to come with insurance everthing including

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