By 2017, Android could hit 1 billion devices shipped annually, Windows Phone with 400% growth
posted by Michael H. / Jun 05, 2013, 9:34 PM
Canalys is a market research firm that is always making predictions about the mobile ecosystem, and the firm is usually one of the better ones about getting things right, or at least close enough. And, in its newest report, Canalys is predicting some huge numbers for Android, and big time growth for Windows Phone by 2017.
According to the newest report, Android and Windows Phone are primed to be the big winners over the next 4 years. If the numbers turn out, Windows Phone could see growth of about 400%, pushing its market share from just 2.4% in 2012 to 12.7% in 2017. Of course, the big winner will continue to be Android, which is expected to lose just 0.6% of its market share, and still control 67.1% of worldwide smartphone shipments. But, by 2017, 67.1% of worldwide smartphone shipments will add up to a crazy 1 billion devices shipped, which is more that double the 470 million Android phones shipped last year.
Oh yeah, and that's another thing, we're just talking smartphones in this report. It's not even counting tablets which are also expected to explode over the next few years, with Android and Windows again taking a big chunk of that market.
Canalys isn't as bullish on Apple, BlackBerry, or the upstarts like Ubuntu Touch, Firefox, Jolla, or Tizen. BlackBerry is expected to basically hold steady. Apple is expected to drop from 19.5% of shipments to 14.1%, and the "Other" category is also supposed to drop to just 1.5%. If the numbers bear out, it looks to be about what we've been expecting with Android leading the way and iOS and Windows Phone rounding out the triumvirate.
Over 1 billion Android-based smart phones to ship in 2017 - 1.5 billion total smart phones to ship, accounting for 73% of all mobile phone shipments
Shanghai, Palo Alto, Singapore and Reading – Tuesday, 4 June 2013
Worldwide, 1.5 billion smart phones will ship in 2017, according to the latest country level forecasts from Canalys, to account for 73% of all mobile phone shipments. In North America and Western Europe, virtually all phones shipped will be smart phones. Even in Greater China, smart phones will represent 95% of all mobile phone shipments in 2017.
‘The price of smart phones has fallen dramatically over the last few years and this has helped increase penetration,’ said Chris Jones, Canalys Principal Analyst. ‘But, so far, the problem with low-cost smart phones has been that the user experience has been compromised to hit lower price points. This is why Nokia has been so successful with its Asha portfolio. These handsets have been purpose-built and provide a great “pseudo-smart phone” experience. But the situation will change over the next few years. As component prices continue to fall, vendors will be able to deliver great experiences on smart phones at low price points, which means that in many markets, feature phones will become extinct.’
The smart phone market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%, while mobile phone shipments will decline by a CAGR of 9% over the same period. Growth in the smart phone market will continue to be driven by Android. In 2012, over 470 million Android-based smart phones shipped and by 2017 this number will have more than doubled to over 1 billion, giving the platform a 67.1% market share. Over the same period, it is forecast that Apple’s shipments will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than the total smart phone market and hence its market share will fall from 19.5% in 2012 to 14.1% in 2017. ‘Apple’s growth will be curtailed by the fact that momentum in the smart phone market is coming from the low end, and Apple is absent from this segment,’ said Jessica Kwee, Canalys Analyst. ‘Android’s continued dominance is due to the scalability of the platform.’
In contrast to Apple, Microsoft’s market share is forecast to grow from 2.4% to 12.7% over the same period. ‘The scalability of Microsoft’s platform will be critical to its success and it has made progress here by enabling Huawei and Nokia to deliver Windows Phone products at aggressive price points,’ said Kwee. ‘Nokia is the most active vendor in the Microsoft camp and it continues to make steady progress with its Lumia portfolio. It has had some major carrier wins recently in the two largest markets of China and the US, which will help it build momentum in the short term. But longer-term it is the Chinese vendors that are best placed to challenge Samsung’s market dominance. Microsoft already has a relationship with Huawei and ZTE in the phone space, and Lenovo is a major partner in the PC space. These partners will be needed to help deliver the scale that Microsoft needs.’
The outlook for BlackBerry remains positive. Though its market share will remain stable over the forecast period, in real terms its shipments are expected to more than double. But for this to happen, it needs to phase out BlackBerry 7 devices quickly and add BlackBerry 10 devices across a range of price points. In addition, BlackBerry needs to urgently reverse its fortunes in the US and focus on growing its presence in China, as without these markets it will struggle to hit the projected shipment numbers.
No IOS is better. If you jailbrake it you can do all sorts of things that you can´t with WP. The both are smooth, just like android, but IOS is actually smoother because Iphone 5 has the lowest input lag of all phones(I think) so it is more responsive. So can you explain why WP is better than IOS. I have no idea why you guys hate IOS, it is very good piece of SW, sure it can´t and I don´t think that it will ever reach the awesomeness and openness of android but with the new IOS 7(if it is even good :)) it should be even better. This system is not apparently made for you.
The only thing that could lift WP from the ground is those new 64-bit chips from arm so you could port over normal Windows and that would be awesome, until that happens I do not see a reason to even bother with WP, this isn´t bashing but I just doesn´t like it.
Did you realize that Jailbreaking your iPhone is also losing your warranty.? you've got a point though. Its good to Jailbreak your phone maybe after warranty, but remember after your warranty there are bunch of new phone coming too. So the time you will enjoy your 720p resolution it might be others will be enjoying their 4K resolutions on phone, or it might be other features i just only put resolution as a sample.
No IOS is a closed form OS system. That means it intends to keep the information within its ecosystem. Example: A recent NFC patent where data can be transmitted via local wifi network using Apple products, funny thing is Apple doesnt even USE NFC; so thats just patent trolling to begin with.
Windows is better not just in terms of providing a boundary-less information ecosystem but also how it provides that info. In an age of where Content is king, Information is straight away present at a single glance via WinPho. iOS is outdated. The home system as point of interaction terminal is getting old as well. thats where BB10 is also trying to innovate. And the future iOS 7 Updates will mostly be Design based, rather than feature based, to ironically provide iOS7 with the WinPho like Flatness, etc.
Totally agree. There would most likely be a Android/WP duopoly. WP can't go anywhere but up because it's just starting off and gaining traction. Android hasn't quite yet reached maturity stage, so it's obvious that it would still be relevant. As for iOS, one can only predict it will go down since it's most likely past maturity, unless Tim Cook actually proves to be the next Steve Jobs. But then, that's highly unlikely...
I think its logical. With the current landscape and data, i think its very possible that Win Phone could end up as a very close 3 or number 2 in the smartphone and tablet world. Android would still rule all as the dominate force but no other manufacturer would compare. It would be Apple and Microsoft battling for second.
Granted, that does not mean that Apple will fail or anything as they will still continue to make the devices that fit their target market but Microsoft will be dipping into that pie a little bit, especially on revenue. And with Win 8, tablets are pretty much a lock for Microsoft and Android.
if this is true for windows phone, nokia will be the big winner here if they maintain a big part of the windows phone market. they will have made the right decision to go with windows phone over any other mobile operating system.
While I would love to believe this, I am just not buying into forecasts this far in the future. It is like the 10 day weather forecast: It says rain in a week and three days from now, but really most likely highs and lows are going to change everything before you get there.
I will listen to a prediction over the next 18 months. But 4 years?? Loveto see how they get therenumbers for these best guesses.
It doesn't add up. OK First off only 75% of the worlds population has access to mobile technology. So that limits you to 5.25 Billion (As opposed to 7 Billion).
50% of the world makes less than $3 a day.
The 50-75% bracket make less than $10 a day.
A CHEAP Smart phone (Nokia 521 / Bargain Androids) are $150.
So for half the world it would take over 2 months to buy one, if they spent money on nothing else.
For next 25% of the world it would take at least 2 weeks if not more (Again if the spend money on nothing else).
This leaves under 1.5 Billion that can afford a new smartphone. So.. half of them would have to replace their phone each year. In the last year I have replaced 2 phones out of the 5 lines I have, and I am still rocking my 2010 Dell Venue Pro. So even myself as a power user with a middle class family and some disposable income, I don't replace half my phones a year.
I think growth will hit a plateau in the 500 million range max..
Microsoft and Nokia need to really to double down on both marketing as well as making sure that all top apps (and not just 3rd party "equivalents") are available. Those are their big challenges. The OS has matured incredibly fast, and they had a huge win with the 920 bring the handset of the year for 2012, so I can see this trend happening. They just need to put all the pieces together, and really leverage their integrated advantages better (Xbox and Office for starters).
Microsoft's big misses are the facts that they haven't handled their partnerships well, marketed as well as they should have, and worked in their exclusive content and ecosystems the way they should.
The fault isn't with the platform though, as Windows Phone is a great platform that has matured incredibly quickly (and arguably faster than either iOS or Android). If they can solidify their app base better, and convince Nokia to move away from carrier exclusives, they will have much better market penetration. The platform is great, the flagship is great, they just need to work on execution.
posted on Jun 06, 2013, 10:30 AM 0
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