By 2017, Android could hit 1 billion devices shipped annually, Windows Phone with 400% growth

By 2017, Android could hit 1 billion devices shipped annually, Windows Phone with 400% growth
Canalys is a market research firm that is always making predictions about the mobile ecosystem, and the firm is usually one of the better ones about getting things right, or at least close enough. And, in its newest report, Canalys is predicting some huge numbers for Android, and big time growth for Windows Phone by 2017.

According to the newest report, Android and Windows Phone are primed to be the big winners over the next 4 years. If the numbers turn out, Windows Phone could see growth of about 400%, pushing its market share from just 2.4% in 2012 to 12.7% in 2017. Of course, the big winner will continue to be Android, which is expected to lose just 0.6% of its market share, and still control 67.1% of worldwide smartphone shipments. But, by 2017, 67.1% of worldwide smartphone shipments will add up to a crazy 1 billion devices shipped, which is more that double the 470 million Android phones shipped last year. 

Oh yeah, and that's another thing, we're just talking smartphones in this report. It's not even counting tablets which are also expected to explode over the next few years, with Android and Windows again taking a big chunk of that market. 

Canalys isn't as bullish on Apple, BlackBerry, or the upstarts like Ubuntu Touch, Firefox, Jolla, or Tizen. BlackBerry is expected to basically hold steady. Apple is expected to drop from 19.5% of shipments to 14.1%, and the "Other" category is also supposed to drop to just 1.5%. If the numbers bear out, it looks to be about what we've been expecting with Android leading the way and iOS and Windows Phone rounding out the triumvirate.



2. GadgetsMcGoo

Posts: 168; Member since: Mar 15, 2013

Has the "smart guys" at canalist factored in that google is looking to replace android OS with chromeOS and put out chromephone?

13. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

Probably not, since that idea is absurd.

16. BattleBrat

Posts: 1476; Member since: Oct 26, 2011

actually, with the introduction of Android based laptops I think the opposite is going to happen.

4. tech3 unregistered

Soon, BlackBerry will go up, Apple will come down. What goes up, must come down.........


Posts: 4851; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

Not ANDROID™ freedom open remains stagnated

5. xperiaDROID

Posts: 5629; Member since: Mar 08, 2013

All hail Android! Keep it up, WP and BB!


Posts: 4851; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

Leave Wp out. ®

9. xperiaDROID

Posts: 5629; Member since: Mar 08, 2013

Why? At least WP is better than iOS, what iOS have? Only chopsticks.

12. Dastrix unregistered


14. xperiaDROID

Posts: 5629; Member since: Mar 08, 2013

18. ama3654

Posts: 295; Member since: Nov 27, 2012

Lol! you just made my morning, very funny.

24. Pedro0x

Posts: 271; Member since: Oct 19, 2012

No IOS is better. If you jailbrake it you can do all sorts of things that you can´t with WP. The both are smooth, just like android, but IOS is actually smoother because Iphone 5 has the lowest input lag of all phones(I think) so it is more responsive. So can you explain why WP is better than IOS. I have no idea why you guys hate IOS, it is very good piece of SW, sure it can´t and I don´t think that it will ever reach the awesomeness and openness of android but with the new IOS 7(if it is even good :)) it should be even better. This system is not apparently made for you. The only thing that could lift WP from the ground is those new 64-bit chips from arm so you could port over normal Windows and that would be awesome, until that happens I do not see a reason to even bother with WP, this isn´t bashing but I just doesn´t like it.

25. phil2n

Posts: 519; Member since: Apr 30, 2012

Did you realize that Jailbreaking your iPhone is also losing your warranty.? you've got a point though. Its good to Jailbreak your phone maybe after warranty, but remember after your warranty there are bunch of new phone coming too. So the time you will enjoy your 720p resolution it might be others will be enjoying their 4K resolutions on phone, or it might be other features i just only put resolution as a sample.

26. Pedro0x

Posts: 271; Member since: Oct 19, 2012

Yeah you are right about warranty, I haven´t thought about that. But many people do it anyway. And you right about the second thing you wrote. But with jailbrake you get so much more from your iphone.

29. grapeseed87

Posts: 123; Member since: Mar 13, 2013

No IOS is a closed form OS system. That means it intends to keep the information within its ecosystem. Example: A recent NFC patent where data can be transmitted via local wifi network using Apple products, funny thing is Apple doesnt even USE NFC; so thats just patent trolling to begin with. Windows is better not just in terms of providing a boundary-less information ecosystem but also how it provides that info. In an age of where Content is king, Information is straight away present at a single glance via WinPho. iOS is outdated. The home system as point of interaction terminal is getting old as well. thats where BB10 is also trying to innovate. And the future iOS 7 Updates will mostly be Design based, rather than feature based, to ironically provide iOS7 with the WinPho like Flatness, etc.


Posts: 4851; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

WP 400% wtf please, ROTFLMFAO® More like 40%

10. -box-

Posts: 3991; Member since: Jan 04, 2012

Seems accurate enough in terms of the android/Windows Phone duopoly, but I would guess WP's market share would be between 33-50%

11. Dastrix unregistered

Totally agree. There would most likely be a Android/WP duopoly. WP can't go anywhere but up because it's just starting off and gaining traction. Android hasn't quite yet reached maturity stage, so it's obvious that it would still be relevant. As for iOS, one can only predict it will go down since it's most likely past maturity, unless Tim Cook actually proves to be the next Steve Jobs. But then, that's highly unlikely...

19. speckledapple

Posts: 902; Member since: Sep 29, 2011

I think its logical. With the current landscape and data, i think its very possible that Win Phone could end up as a very close 3 or number 2 in the smartphone and tablet world. Android would still rule all as the dominate force but no other manufacturer would compare. It would be Apple and Microsoft battling for second. Granted, that does not mean that Apple will fail or anything as they will still continue to make the devices that fit their target market but Microsoft will be dipping into that pie a little bit, especially on revenue. And with Win 8, tablets are pretty much a lock for Microsoft and Android.

20. freebee269

Posts: 542; Member since: Aug 10, 2012

if this is true for windows phone, nokia will be the big winner here if they maintain a big part of the windows phone market. they will have made the right decision to go with windows phone over any other mobile operating system.

22. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

While I would love to believe this, I am just not buying into forecasts this far in the future. It is like the 10 day weather forecast: It says rain in a week and three days from now, but really most likely highs and lows are going to change everything before you get there. I will listen to a prediction over the next 18 months. But 4 years?? Loveto see how they get therenumbers for these best guesses.

27. jsdechavez

Posts: 799; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

One billion a year? Seriously? Who'd buy that? Martians maybe.

30. grapeseed87

Posts: 123; Member since: Mar 13, 2013

7 billion people in the world :P

32. cdgoin

Posts: 614; Member since: Jul 28, 2010

It doesn't add up. OK First off only 75% of the worlds population has access to mobile technology. So that limits you to 5.25 Billion (As opposed to 7 Billion). 50% of the world makes less than $3 a day. The 50-75% bracket make less than $10 a day. A CHEAP Smart phone (Nokia 521 / Bargain Androids) are $150. So for half the world it would take over 2 months to buy one, if they spent money on nothing else. For next 25% of the world it would take at least 2 weeks if not more (Again if the spend money on nothing else). This leaves under 1.5 Billion that can afford a new smartphone. So.. half of them would have to replace their phone each year. In the last year I have replaced 2 phones out of the 5 lines I have, and I am still rocking my 2010 Dell Venue Pro. So even myself as a power user with a middle class family and some disposable income, I don't replace half my phones a year. I think growth will hit a plateau in the 500 million range max..

28. jellmoo

Posts: 2588; Member since: Oct 31, 2011

Microsoft and Nokia need to really to double down on both marketing as well as making sure that all top apps (and not just 3rd party "equivalents") are available. Those are their big challenges. The OS has matured incredibly fast, and they had a huge win with the 920 bring the handset of the year for 2012, so I can see this trend happening. They just need to put all the pieces together, and really leverage their integrated advantages better (Xbox and Office for starters).

31. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

Well said. If you are open to the idea, a top level Windows Phone position has just been opened for you. No experince needed, just a little commom sense required.


Posts: 4851; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

Android and Apple will make sure that app devs consentrates more on them then Useless Wp8! MS will be funding B!t©h€$ $L@√€$ Nokia and it's Devs from it's own resources! What a "pathetic platform and useless brand" F@!L™®©

34. jellmoo

Posts: 2588; Member since: Oct 31, 2011

Microsoft's big misses are the facts that they haven't handled their partnerships well, marketed as well as they should have, and worked in their exclusive content and ecosystems the way they should. The fault isn't with the platform though, as Windows Phone is a great platform that has matured incredibly quickly (and arguably faster than either iOS or Android). If they can solidify their app base better, and convince Nokia to move away from carrier exclusives, they will have much better market penetration. The platform is great, the flagship is great, they just need to work on execution.

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