Despite the data from Apple indicating solid iPhone sales, but a plateaued market share, arguably lackluster iPad sales compared to previous quarters’ activity, and the prospect of something wearable in the works from Cupertino, it is the iPhone we need to keep watching.
Some analysts have low expectations about how the iPhone 6 (or whatever it ends up being called) will sell following its anticipated announcement later this year. However, there is another metric we should consider, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S.
When people think of Apple, they think of the iPhone, plain and simple. Analysts at Morgan Stanley made a chart compiling the ownership of iPhone users by device generation. We will first note that the survey and research shows some errors. The iPhone 3GS or older is not compatible with the incumbent networks of Verizon or Sprint, so we will chalk that up to common margins of error when it comes to surveying.
What is most interesting is that the bulk of iPhone owners are still using the iPhone 4 or 4S. They were either locked into contracts or were simply not endeared to upgrade to the iPhone 5 generation of devices. The thinking of some of these folks on Wall Street is that Apple is going to have a bumper harvest when the iPhone 6 drops and those folks on what will be three-generation-old equipment will finally upgrade.
Given the percentages with the United States’ two largest carriers, that accounts for many tens-of-millions of units that may be upgraded. Apple has been playing the iPhone evolution conservatively. If this data user data is accurate, then these are potential sales that are arguably Apple’s to lose.
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