Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks

Android could have 1 million daily activations in 2 weeks
Android has been growing at an extraordinary rate, there's no way to deny that, but Michael Degusta over at the understatement wanted to figure out the exact numbers that we should expect during Google's next earnings call. The numbers are certainly impressive. 

What Degusta did was plot out the reported numbers for activations per day that we've heard from Google through various sources going back to April of last year, when Google reported a mere 60,000 Android activations per day. The latest number came from Google's earnings call in July,where it reported 550,000 daily activations for Android. Degusta then used a statistic that Andy Rubin had tweeted which said that Android activations were increasing by 4.4% every week. The numbers between that Andy Rubin tweet and Google's earnings call a couple weeks later confirmed that figure, and so Degusta plotted out how that compounded growth could look. 

As you'll notice in the chart, Android activations began ramping up around May of this year. And, based on the 4.4% growth stated by Andy Rubin, Google should be seeing about 800,000 daily Android activations right now, and could cross the 1 million activations per day by October 20th. That certainly seems like a believable statistic given the incredible sales of phones like the Samsung Galaxy S II. But, just to be safe, Degusta also plotted a more conservative projection, not using the compounding growth curve, which would bring Google to 1 million daily Android activations by December. 

Either way, the growth is crazy, and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Andy Rubin and crew must be quite proud. 

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43 Comments

1. wassup

Posts: 565; Member since: Jun 23, 2011

woot woot! android will continue dominating :D lets hope it continues

2. Yeeee

Posts: 190; Member since: Aug 02, 2011

Now that more phones are being activated each day i bet the percentage is less now. I mean 200,000 extra activations in 13 days?

3. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

Insane growth. And to think Steve Ballmer laughed at Android when Google announced it. *punches Ballmer in the face* Ah. I feel better.

4. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

he just has one of those faces... lol. i bet he was the jackass in school that no one liked.

6. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

That's what I'm saying! It's just an irresistible urge I get when I see him! And he exacerbates the problem when he opens his mouth.

12. biophone

Posts: 1994; Member since: Jun 15, 2011

He bashed both ios and android at release. Shows what he knows. Truly no vision.

16. Droid_X_Doug

Posts: 5993; Member since: Dec 22, 2010

Nothing like Ballmer having to announce the sales failures of WP7 every quarter. They are going to have to announce WP8 to just get the attention off the WP7 sales failures. Even with Nokia releasing WP7 handsets, there is no way MS is going to approach the activation levels of Android. At this point, Android has run away and his from WP7.

21. asdas unregistered

lol fail fandroid

39. Goldeneye

Posts: 419; Member since: Jan 22, 2011

This is something Microsoft should be happy about the more Androids get activated the more money MS makes

5. remixfa

Posts: 14605; Member since: Dec 19, 2008

And apple was just bragging that they have sold 240 million iphones to date for the last 4 or so years. Basically android will do that in 240 days. Yup, apple definitely will get close to android with the i4s release.. lol

35. quang le unregistered

250m iOS, not iphones. Iphones probably 60-70% of that

45. joaolx

Posts: 364; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

300 million iOS devices to be correct. xD

46. joaolx

Posts: 364; Member since: Aug 16, 2011

You should know that Apple has only made 5 iPhones. Comparing to the hundreds of Android devices and the fact that there are several point prices(from free to 300$ on contract) what the iPhone has achieved is amazing.

7. ledbetterp3

Posts: 467; Member since: Aug 31, 2011

Hey, this isdnt on topic but on the costco website at&t cell phone section, for the motorola atrix 4g, isnt that a picture of the motorola atrix 2?? heres the link:http://membershipwireless.com/index.cfm/utm_source/costco/utm_medium/landing

8. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

Yes, that does look like it, esp. because the image changes when you click to go to the main Atrix page. Good catch. :)

11. ledbetterp3

Posts: 467; Member since: Aug 31, 2011

10. protozeloz

Posts: 5396; Member since: Sep 16, 2010

Quick take a screenshot!

13. ledbetterp3

Posts: 467; Member since: Aug 31, 2011

I did, lol but whats the point, what do i do with the screenshot? Do I bate to it?

25. protozeloz

Posts: 5396; Member since: Sep 16, 2010

Send it to a website, monday will be slow

9. protozeloz

Posts: 5396; Member since: Sep 16, 2010

Now all google has to do is keep them customers happy and that number will remain high for a while.

14. Wyn66

Posts: 7; Member since: Aug 09, 2011

Seriously, people. C'mon. We know there are a lotta Android phones in the market and that's great. But, let's do the math here. In July Google claimed 550k/day. Now, the above estimate says 800k/day. That's an increase of 250k/day activations over a two month time period. If it does reach 1 million by October 20th, that's another 200k/day activations in a single month. So, at 1 million daily activations, in a year's time that's 365 million activations. That's 1.095 billion in three years. At that rate, the entirety of the Earth's population will own Androids in a mere 20 years. That's providing it doesn't increase by 100% every 3 months like the article claims. If it does the time will be cut to roughly 6 years. Uh... that's highly improbable. The above also doesn't take into account that not every individual on the planet has access to, the means to, or the ability to use a smartphone. It sounds great but... really?

18. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

I don't think that the argument here is that the growth will continue into perpetuity. Of course at some point we're going to see a stall in growth, but we haven't reached saturation yet and there is still plenty of room for growth.

28. MichaelHeller

Posts: 2734; Member since: May 26, 2011

I certainly wouldn't expect the line to keep rising as Degusta has it. Obviously, it will level out eventually. I certainly don't expect it to hit the 3.5 million per day he has projected by the end of the year. But, I wouldn't be surprised to find out in the next earnings call that Android is around the 800-900k per day range, and at 1 million per day by the end of the year. The number has room to rise a fair bit, because there are still quite a lot of feature phone users switching to smart phones. No one is trying to extrapolate this data farther than this year.

15. xenover

Posts: 174; Member since: May 27, 2011

I can't wait to get my first Android phone. THEN I CAN BE ON OF THE MILLIONS!!!

22. hawk62

Posts: 320; Member since: Nov 21, 2009

One of the millions with a phone that has browser that force closes, a app market that barely works, and phones that dont get updated! Yeah you

24. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

That's only if you're a user who bricks three brand new DROID Xs in a row. Let's test your claims: 1) Something very rarely if ever force closes on my phone. I can't even recall the last time the browser did that on me. 2) the market works just fine. I download new apps and updates off it almost every day without a sweat. 3) Two out of the three Android phones I've had for any length of time (had a fourth for two weeks because I tried then had to drop a carrier) have received major OS updates. The first, my X, had two major OS updates. Once to Group and once to Gingerbread. Both times when bugs have popped up from the updates, subsequent updates have been released to fix those bugs. My Atrix, the other phone, has received one major OS update (and the model had a couple of minor updates before I bought one), and so far hasn't exhibited any bugs that make me think another major update needs to be rushed out. The third phone was a CLIQ, which, quite frankly, is a CLIQ. But seriously, it was released at the dawn of Android and worked just fine as a basic Android phone with Cupcake. By now if you buy a new Android phone you can usually tell which ones will actually get updated with new versions of the OS and which won't. How does it feel being proven wrong, Hawk?

26. protozeloz

Posts: 5396; Member since: Sep 16, 2010

Hawk will be hawk he is an idiot, I rarely doubt he could brick a droid x unless he did it trying to install a custom rom and even that way it can be Fixed in 30 minutes, if he wants the latest version of android all he has to do is get a nexus :)

34. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

Hawk broke the laws of physics. His touch made three brand new DROID Xs defective, back when he tried them. That's what he told me about a year ago, anyway. He also magically never thought that Verizon would charge money for tethering to a computer via wifi, and called them liars for this.

32. gallitoking

Posts: 4721; Member since: May 17, 2011

you are one of the biggest defender of Adroid.. I want to hear some one whom are not fanboys.. for a change,,,,,

52. ledbetterp3

Posts: 467; Member since: Aug 31, 2011

he only major update phones that sniggly is talking about need now is ICS.

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