Analyst: BlackBerry has 18 months to live

Analyst: BlackBerry has 18 months to live
Pierre Ferragu at Bernstein Research has put a clock on the time that BlackBerry has remaining until the company runs out of money. According to the analyst, the Canadian manufacturer has 18 months left until the bank account flatlines. CEO Thorsten Heins recently said that the company has $2.6 billion in cash and no debt. Even so, the company will run through $2 billion of that by February 2015 according to Ferragu.

While BlackBerry has agreed to a buyout from Fairfax Financial for $4.7 billion, if the company burns through its cash it could give Fairfax a reason to back away from the deal. Private equity firms look to borrow funds against their prey's cash and other liquid assets, but if the amount of cash is dropping it would make it harder to complete the purchase of the company. On Wednesday, there was some news that another potential buyer, Cerberus Capital, was sniffing around the company and wanted to see the financials. The distressed securities firm told BlackBerry that it would sign a non-disclosure agreement so that it could check out the handset producer's financials.

Ferragu expects BlackBerry to lose 7 million members during the next quarter, and will need to spend more than expected for patent licenses. "We now believe there is virtually no collateral for a bank loan, and no credible story for a break up to justify more than a couple of billions for the equity," said Ferragu. If the analyst is right, Fairfax Financial, already the largest BlackBerry stockholder with a 10% stake, could be overpaying for the company at $4.7 billion and if so, BlackBerry could be in danger of never seeing a deal done at that price.

source: TheGuardian

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14 Comments

1. Shatter

Posts: 2036; Member since: May 29, 2013

A flagship + a few budget Blackberry branded device running android is their only chance.

6. Martin_Cooper

Posts: 1774; Member since: Jul 30, 2013

To be honest I cant see anything that they could do to get back on feet. Ifg they continue with their OS they are too far behind and they will just sink fast. If they go to android its too late. Samsung is dominating it, LG and Sony are doing great so no room for a company that has a really bad name in now days of being a looser company that no one cares about, Sell all patents, scrap everything and say good bye BB.

7. TBomb

Posts: 1133; Member since: Dec 28, 2012

as possible that it is that it's too late to move to android... i bet BB could do some cool things with android in terms of custom UI for their phones.... my opinon.

2. karim77

Posts: 70; Member since: Dec 10, 2012

Android and blackberry will never combine , also ,blackberry are thieves when it comes to handsets prices

5. Martin_Cooper

Posts: 1774; Member since: Jul 30, 2013

Yes cause Samsung and Apple with their over priced phones are charity organizations. Blackberry never had an issue with prices but with their old OS compared to competition and shi-tty CEO.

3. md227a

Posts: 222; Member since: Mar 20, 2012

Just running Android even if it was on premium hardware is not a guarantee for recovery. They would still be competing with Samsung and HTC.

4. Shatter

Posts: 2036; Member since: May 29, 2013

Their z10 failed because the price and the OS it was running.

8. Armor

Posts: 52; Member since: Dec 06, 2011

BB10 is ahead of its time. Its clear that many of you have never used a bb10 device. It is super smooth and fast. Just needs time for people to see it. I have showed it to 5 iphone users and 4 are now using the z10. It is a great phone, Blackberry just cannot get any backing from carriers. If you walked into a carrier store when the phone first hit they would try to steer you away from the phone. Would not even let the customer try it. I had to tell my sales man that I wanted the z10. If you don't want to sell it to me I will go else where. We now have 4 z10 in my family and they are great. Go Blackberry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

14. pradeepreddy

Posts: 65; Member since: Apr 01, 2013

i too agree with the OS part, but their problem is OVERPRICED phone. if they want to give a taste of their OS in this android+ios filled world, they need to price it near by NEXUS line (or) may be less than NEXUS line phones. they may get some losses at first but it give much needed traction to their OS.

9. Armor

Posts: 52; Member since: Dec 06, 2011

BlackBerry 10 Receives NATO Approval for Restricted Communications. Let see Apple or Android do this. Go Blackberry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

10. x78_nothing

Posts: 53; Member since: Feb 07, 2013

BB is totally different than all android phone maker (except motorola - google). BB has its own os, even running two devices with different OS (BBOS and BB10) has own networking and servers. Oppo, Xiomi, huawei LG, Samsung, GTE, htc and other 100s android brand dont even have to think about OS. Its totally different class. The big problem for BB is how to tell the world that BB has new devices with BB10, that even better than android OS.

11. E.S.1

Posts: 308; Member since: Sep 14, 2013

Hi, How do you like your BB Z10 ? I currently have Samsung Galaxy S 2 Skyrocket which is a two year old version. I’m thinking about an upgrade between BB Z30 (I know blackberry is in major trouble but the keyboard seems amazing). LG G2 Or Nexus 5? I’m on AT&T and use my phone for texting 60% surfing the net 30% and as a phone 10%. Daily screen time 3 hours or less. Thank you

12. Jurdiales

Posts: 138; Member since: Oct 10, 2012

The analyst is wrong, Blackberry is dead since a while ago... Anyway, Blackberry with Android, thats an impossible idea, is not going to happen, ever, at least if someone could hack the device and installs and Android build like what happened on the HD2 (thats the model? I don't remember) that could bring to life the Z10, the Q10, but only on the development side and Android flashers, another example is the already dead HP Touchpad, it has now some development with Android as Custom OS....

13. Beholder88

Posts: 86; Member since: Mar 30, 2012

I wish they would just die already. I talked to a customer just yesterday that had been on the fence between an iPhone and a Blackberry, and she chose the BB. Hated it, called in asking about returning it and going with her first choice. People expect Blackberry to be Blackberry. They pick up a Z or Q device and it doesn't even look or feel like what BB users are used to. Sadly, the BB user base isn't large enough by itself to float a multi-billion dollar company.

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