The new iPhone XS
and especially the XS Max
after it, are widely expected to bring the "mother of all upgrades" by analysts, from people with iPhones two years and older who are still the majority of iOS users
The analysts from investment firm Piper Jaffray actually went and did an upgrade demand survey among 700 such owners, and found out that the upgrade wave will probably be much larger than expected.
The survey indicated that 39% will be going for an iPhone XS or XS Max, with a roughly even split in desires for the two handsets. Thus, the analysts had to raise their prediction for the average selling price (ASP) of iPhones in the 2019 fiscal year to the whopping $770. That's huge, considering that the cheaper iPhone XR
is still to hit the market and dilute the ASP.
Raising iPhone ASP Assumptions for FY19. We are now expecting an FY19 ASP of $770 (vs. previous estimate of $758). If, as described above, iPhone Xr proves to have a higher mix than our estimate (i.e. 36% instead of 30% — to allow for new iPhones to account for 75% of mix, similar to FY18), it would take our FY19 iPhone ASP to $780 (vs. current consensus of $768).
Previous studies showed that the more expensive XS Max beats the XS in buying preferences
, so that might be something to even things out at the top-end, as the all-time high $798 ASP was reportedly reached by Apple in Q1 this year, thanks to the high iPhone X
mix in the numbers.. Either way, Apple is expected to make out like a bandit in its next fiscal year, and we can't wait for the first sales and profit numbers to start trickling down.