Just the other day we told you that EchoStar gave up the dream of becoming the nation's fourth facilities-based carrier and sold 50MHz of low and mid-band spectrum to AT&T for a much-needed $23 billion. With the deal, AT&T gets 20MHz of 600MHz low-band airwaves, which the carrier uses for its nationwide 5G service simply named AT&T 5G. The remaining 30MHz is 3.45GHz mid-band spectrum, which is used for its AT&T 5G+ service that delivers faster data speeds to its subscribers.
What EchoStar decides to do with its remaining spectrum could change the spectrum standings in the U.S.
Not only did the deal fill EchoStar's coffers with cash, it possibly got the FCC and its Chairman Brendan Carr off its back. One of the things that Carr was mad about was what he considered to be spectrum hoarding on the part of the company, especially the 2GHz licenses that Elon Musk and SpaceX want. Musk and his satellite company want the spectrum for its direct-to-cell satellite service that will allow smartphone users to connect to an LTE signal from anywhere the sky is visible.
How much Sub-6GHz spectrum is owned by the Big 3 and Dish. | Image credit-TD Securities, Fierce Wireless
According to securities firm TD Cowen, after the transaction with EchoStar closes next year, AT&T will have 314MHz of sub-6GHz spectrum which will put it ahead of Verizon's 279MHz. Having said that, as you probably could have figured out, T-Mobile is the leader in the U.S. with 376MHz of airwaves to work with. What EchoStar does with its remaining 76MHz of spectrum could change the current spectrum standings in the U.S.
Who ends up with EchoStar's remaining spectrum?
Verizon. It needs more spectrum.
16.67%
T-Mobile. It wants more, and more, and more...
38.89%
AT&T. It wants to top T-Mobile.
5.56%
SpaceX. Musk still has some political power.
0%
A combination of the above names.
22.22%
None of the above
0%
EchoStar keeps it.
16.67%
As EchoStar starts the process of transitioning to a hybrid Mobile Network Organization (MNO), Adam Rhodes, Senior Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) analyst at Octus Research, sent out a note to clients that said, "The deal suggests that substantial demand exists for additional EchoStar spectrum licenses...including its paired AWS-3 licenses." Also hinting that more spectrum will be sold by EchoStar is a comment made by AT&T CEO John Stankey, who said, "I’m really happy that we’re first out of the shoot."
EchoStar, as a hybrid MNO, won't need the spectrum anymore. Mobile Experts Principal Joe Madden said that the company preferred to speculate on rising spectrum prices and never invested enough money to build out its network. "Now that they have finally scored a win, I believe that they will need to sell the remaining spectrum soon," Madden told Fierce Wireless. "Their story of becoming the fourth big operator is unraveling and is no longer remotely credible."
T-Mobile, Verizon, and SpaceX are said to be interested in EchoStar's remaining spectrum
Madden believes that Verizon and SpaceX are two possible buyers for the remaining EchoStar airwaves. SpaceX, as previously noted, has been drooling over the 2GHz/AWS-4 spectrum, which has been called the most valuable spectrum that EchoStar owned. T-Mobile also might be interested in the leftover spectrum according to a report from Semafor. The report cited people familiar with the situation who say that T-Mobile is one name to watch as EchoStar decides what to do.
If Verizon were to buy 36MHz of EchoStar's remaining spectrum, it would hop over AT&T and have the second-largest holdings of sub-6GHz spectrum among U.S. carriers, assuming AT&T is finished with EchoStar. Even if Verizon made a deal for all 76 MHz of spectrum that EchoStar has left, it wouldn't top T-Mobile. On the other hand, should AT&T pick up an additional 63MHz of spectrum from EchoStar and T-Mobile is shut out, AT&T would take over the top spot and have the largest Sub-6GHz spectrum holdings of any U.S. carrier. Should T-Mobile buy some of the leftover EchoStar spectrum, it would pad its lead.
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Another possibility is that the FCC could have EchoStar's remaining spectrum handed over to "Someone who needs it," according to Techsponential Founder Avi Greengart. AvidThink Principal Roy Chua believes that other MNOs might bid for the airwaves or that EchoStar might keep some of the remaining spectrum for its direct-to-device satellite services. At the same time, it could lease some of the spectrum it has left.
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