Research firm expects 1.7 billion smartphones to be shipped in 2017 with Android leading the way
posted by Alan F. / May 03, 2012, 9:25 PM
London based research firm Ovum is looking into the future to compute that 1.7 billion smartphones will be shipped in 2017. According to the firm, smartphone shipments will grow at a 24.9% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2011-2017. The overall CAGR for the entire mobile phone market during that same time period is estimated to reach 6.3% thanks to demand from emerging markets.
Ovum says that the Apple iPhone once defined the smartphone market
Ovum's principal analyst, Adam Leach, says that it will be Android leading the way in the global smartphone market. Leach said that while it was the Apple iPhone which "defined the market" since its launch in 2007, Android has since huge growth in shipments indicating strong demand from global handset manufacturers. Ovum says that the momentum which has taken Android from a 17% share of the world-wide smartphone market in 2010 to 44% last year, will continue with the green robot tallying a 48% slice of the smartphone pie by 2017. This works out to a compounded annual growth rate of 26.8% during the period.
Behind Android will be Apple with iOS ringing up a 27% marketshare in 2017, up from last year's 23%. Not only does Leach expect Apple to still be a "key player and innovator" when it comes to smartphones, the analyst sees Microsoft making Windows Phone a relevant brand by 2017. Thanks to Nokia, Leach sees Windows Phone with 13% of the smartphone market by 2017 followed by 10% for RIM.
London, 3 May 2012. Smartphones will outperform the overall market for mobile phones, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.9% for the period 2011–17 to reach 1.7 billion units, according to Ovum. Predictions show Android as the dominant operating system over the next five years as handset vendors rush to make it their primary smartphone platform.
In its latest forecast*, the leading telecoms analyst house reveals global annual mobile phone shipments will grow at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2011 and 2017, driven primarily by demand from emerging markets where connection growth will continue to fuel handset shipments. New shipments in developed markets, such as North America and Western Europe, will be almost entirely made up of smartphones, while feature phones will continue to play a small role in emerging markets in 2017.
“Android will dominate the smartphone market over the next five years,” said Adam Leach, principal analyst at Ovum. “While Apple has defined the smartphone market since it introduced the iPhone in 2007, we’re now seeing a sharp rise in the shipment volumes of Android, signaling its appeal to leading handset manufacturers.”
Smartphones based on Android accounted for 44% of the smartphone market in 2011, significantly up from 17% in 2010. However, its share will reach 48% in 2017, as Android-based smartphones are expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.8% over the forecast period. Apple’s iOS will be the second most widely deployed software platform in 2017, accounting for 27% of the smartphone market, a slight increase on the 23% share of the market it reported in 2011. Sitting some way behind the Android/iOS duopoly will be the remaining smartphone players.
“Although it will remain behind Android in terms of shipment volumes, Apple will continue to be a key player and innovator in the smartphone market over the forecast period,” says Leach. “We expect Microsoft, despite its slow start, to have established Windows Phone as a relevant smartphone platform by 2017.”
The Windows Phone platform, with the assistance of Nokia, will account for 13% of the smartphone market in 2017. Despite losing significant market share since its high point in 2009, RIM’s BlackBerry platform will still represent 10% of the market in 2017.
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