Report says to expect Android to top the iOS installed base by next year

Report says to expect Android to top the iOS installed base by next year
Analyst Horace Dediu of asymco has come to the conclusion that by some time in 2012, Android users will overtake the installed base of iOS users. Graphing the number of activations each quarter, the analyst says that currently Apple has 191 million users after 48 months. In 31 months, Android totals 83 million users. Deidu deduces that the latter will overcome the former by sometime in 2012 based on current rates of momentum and growth.

Of course, momentum is not a static number. Things change, new features get offered, and the analysis done by Dediu assumes that everything stays the same.  The analyst adds, "One should be careful about drawing conclusions that this implies effective competition. Both platforms are growing very quickly. iOS is growing at at least 100%/yr and Android’s second year was 65x bigger than its first. iOS growth is limited by the ramp rates of a limited portfolio of products. Android growth is limited by how quickly vendors can bring out products. Neither platform is demand constrained and hence they are competing for share of growth not for share of a fixed pie."

He also says that "extrapolation is a dangerous game." For example, had he done this comparison even just a week prior to the launch of the original Motorola DROID, the results would have looked quite different.

source: asymco via AndroidGuys


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11 Comments

1. the dude unregistered

so wait even though android is ranked ahead of apple in terms of os (# of users) apple is still ahead .....something here smells a little fishy

2. Kjayhawk

Posts: 294; Member since: Oct 07, 2010

No iOS is number one including iphone, ipod and ipads. Android is the number one smart phone OS.

7. google lover unregistered

android is the best one because of google is everything.....

11. tuminatr

Posts: 1144; Member since: Feb 23, 2009

although I own a droid comments like this are like this are kin to Vanilla is the best flavor. there is no best device. I will say android has more features than Ios

12. 530gemini

Posts: 2198; Member since: Sep 09, 2010

Based on growth percentage, YES. Example: Android in 2010 = 5000 phones In 2011 = 7500 that's 50% growth Apple in 2010 = 1000 in 2011 = 2000 that's 100% growth So based on those numbers, eventhough android has actually more number of phones activated, their growth percentage is slower than Apple. Get it?

3. BobbyTaba

Posts: 316; Member since: Aug 11, 2010

these are bad results or the guy was retarded

4. bossmt_2

Posts: 459; Member since: Oct 13, 2009

I wonder if month 7 was the month that the Droid launched on Verizon. Nothing did Google more good in the Android world than Verizon not having the iPhone for as long as it did.

10. Lucas777

Posts: 2137; Member since: Jan 06, 2011

well their lineup sucked before. so it was good for vz. cant say their lineup is amazing at the moment though...

8. Eingild unregistered

Is this relevant for users around the globe? or just USA?

13. 530gemini

Posts: 2198; Member since: Sep 09, 2010

This analysis is pretty accurate and actually predictable. With the number of phonemakers adopting android, it will definitely overtake iOS in no time. But it does not mean that iOS won't be the biggest winner in terms of profit. Always remember, Apple is the SOLE owner of iOS, android is free.

14. IOS5 unregistered

I think the reason that 50% of saymbian user going to shift to Android cus saymbian it's going to finish not exactly finish cus nokia shifting to wm7.

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