IDC: Windows Phone to steal market share from iOS and Android by 2019

According to analytics firm IDC, Android will have 79.4% of the global smartphone market at the end of this year. With 1.15 billion units forecast to ship in 2015, IDC expects Android to show 8.5% growth in shipments this year. Apple's iOS, with an expected 237 million iPhones shipped this year, is next with 16.4% of the global market. This would represent 23% growth year-over-year. Windows Phone will have the fastest growth this year with a 34.1% growth rate. That will give the platform a 3.2% slice of the smartphone pie with 46.8 million Windows Phone handsets shipping this year.

But what does the future look like? IDC set its sights to 2019 and predicts that 1.5 billion Android handsets will ship that year giving Google's open source OS a 79% share of the global smartphone market. It will also give the Android OS a compounded annual growth rate of 7.5% over the five years. In 2019, IDC sees iOS with 14.2% of the market. Apple will ship 274.5 million iPhones that year according to the forecast, garnering a compounded growth rate of 7.3% for iOS.

Lastly, Windows Phone will see its share of the global smartphone market rise to 5.4% in 2019 according to IDC. That will be the result of 103.5 million Windows Phone handsets shipping that year. The platform's five year compounded growth rate is forecast to be 24.3%, more than triple the compounded growth rates that IDC expects for Android and iOS.

Of course, these figures are all nothing more than guesses made by IDC and anything could happen between now and 2019. Maybe we should just ask Cortana for her prediction.

source: IDC via WMPoweruser



1. Ordinary

Posts: 2454; Member since: Apr 23, 2015

Asks Cortana who will have top marketshare in 2019, answer is Microsoft. Illuminati confirmed.

5. xq10xa

Posts: 810; Member since: Dec 07, 2010

2019 Year-Over-Year Growth = 13.6% 13.6% 1+4+6=10. Illuminati has 10 letters. NWO

10. sgodsell

Posts: 7605; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

I remember back in 2011 when predictions were made back then in regards to the smart phone market. They stated by 2015 that Microsoft would have taken the number 2 spot from Apple and by 2016 WP was going to be number 1. Well we know what happened to those predictions. Now Microsoft would be happy with just 13% by 2019. Desperate times, I guess really does mean desperate measures. ;-)

30. nokia12

Posts: 610; Member since: Nov 19, 2013

13 % in 2019 lol.... if that happens you will see nadella doing the ballmer dance idc is projecting only 5% market share in 2019

2. shimanto1123

Posts: 105; Member since: Nov 20, 2014

Wow thats cute!

12. RaKithAPeiRiZ

Posts: 1488; Member since: Dec 29, 2011

another wet dream for WP users

3. arch_angel

Posts: 1651; Member since: Feb 20, 2015

i think wp will actually grow faster than those predictions.

11. sgodsell

Posts: 7605; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Thats what was said back in 2011 for WP. In fact by 2015 WP was suppose to be well ahead of iOS and nipping at the heals of Android. Look what happened in real life. WP sales right now for Q1 2015 sit at 2.5% market share globally.

13. hound.master

Posts: 1044; Member since: Feb 27, 2015

Yeah but in 2011 Microsoft didn't have the Nokia and also their let go of their OS there wasn't even a flagship.

15. arch_angel

Posts: 1651; Member since: Feb 20, 2015

i never though that would happen back in 2011 because wp os was crap but wp 10 seems to be a big change to the wp os and Microsoft has its on brand now(nokia) so i have high hopes for wp in the upcoming year.

19. jos_031

Posts: 62; Member since: Jun 12, 2012

If google released second party google apps for windows i and many whom i know would have switched to windows phones. I am fully into google apps, but i felt windows phone is better in many ways.

26. sgodsell

Posts: 7605; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

The problem with Microsoft's WP is that it is still very restrictive, not only for developers, but there is even more restrictions for OEMs. If you wanted to make a WP device, then you have to use only Qualcomm CPU's and even then you were restricted to use only certain ones. Remember that WP is optimized for those specific ARM CPU's and developers make and compile their apps for this architecture. This helps to make the apps run faster on the platform. However WP has locked itself to using specific hardware just like Apple. We already have Apple that does this. This is one of the reasons why WP never grew. Its funny that everyone talks about Windows 10 and Universal apps. So developers can make a Windows (x86 processor) app that will also run on a Windows 10 mobile (ARM processor). Even Apple is looking to get into this area with their Apple Swift, which is not so swift right now. So its developers can make one app that will work on OS/X and iOS. However, Android is already like Microsoft's Universal apps and Apple's Swift, and has been this way since day one. Not only that Android already has a large ecosystem that follows it. With 1.6 million apps that are mostly agnostic.

31. amro99

Posts: 114; Member since: Nov 29, 2012

Comparing today's MS with 2011 MS is a big mistake as they roadmap and vision has been totally revamped since Satya has become the CEO. That's why they will most probably have a much higher market share by 2019

41. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Yup. They got a few predictions right, but the one they made for WP back then....not so much.

4. cornerofthemoon

Posts: 620; Member since: Apr 20, 2010

Also according to IDC, River Phoenix will be the second highest grossing Box Office actor in 2019, behind Heath Ledger.

6. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Windows might be dead by 2019. Lol

17. lalalaman

Posts: 638; Member since: Aug 19, 2013

u might be dead by tomorrow

21. sprockkets

Posts: 1612; Member since: Jan 16, 2012

Na, it won't be dead. It will natively support ios apps and android, thus solving the app problem altogether. (No, the solution touted at the past build conference isn't what I just said).

23. o7o

Posts: 114; Member since: Jun 26, 2009

Nor what you just said will be true..

25. sprockkets

Posts: 1612; Member since: Jan 16, 2012

It is sarcasm, but lets not pretend that anyone even a year ago thought MS would ditch native development to make other apps work in WP.

8. Liveitup

Posts: 1798; Member since: Jan 07, 2014

Now more than ever at the rapid rate at which technology is moving its pretty hard to say what the smartphone market will look like by 2019.

9. Napalm_3nema

Posts: 2236; Member since: Jun 14, 2013

They predicted the same garbage by 2015. A guess is just that, a guess.

14. hound.master

Posts: 1044; Member since: Feb 27, 2015

I think Android will lose much by that time.

16. bucky

Posts: 3797; Member since: Sep 30, 2009

Wasnt something like this predicted 5 years ago as well?

40. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Exactly. I just posted the links. Seems like every few years they will push the timeline forward....and one day they will get it right.

18. NuRay

Posts: 15; Member since: Jan 04, 2015

Depends on developers. Lets see how windows 10 performs.

20. Nick1119

Posts: 14; Member since: Sep 21, 2014

My spare phone is a Windows. Most apps people use are there. Vpn, torrent, kid profiles, all the good stuff that Android users like

22. sprockkets

Posts: 1612; Member since: Jan 16, 2012

Try finding a decent car dash recorder and a good stable music app for vorbis. Vorbis support is better but for whatever reason every music program has trouble browsing those files. None of them can sort via meta data either like the built in one can. Why? Who knows.

27. T.Law

Posts: 423; Member since: May 10, 2014

Not really

24. joevsyou

Posts: 1093; Member since: Feb 28, 2015

growth = possible If they can prove they are better, take over? HAHAHA it's too late, I don't think any company could. I wish there was a company out there that could pull it off though, but they would have to bring their SSS rank game because their A game wouldn't be enough. I mean they would need to reinvent the world and patent it!

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