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Forbes thinks Windows could surpass iOS in just three years

Posted: , by Michael H.

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Forbes thinks Windows could surpass iOS in just three years
For now, it seems like Android isn't going to be losing its lead in the mobile market, so the interesting battles are happening with different platforms jockeying for position in second, third, and fourth places. Right now, we have a setup with Android on top, iOS as the clear number two, and Windows Phone as the clear number three. But, at least one outlet believes that Windows could surpass iOS in just three years.

The idea comes from Forbes, and it is a compelling one. We've often suspected that Windows Phone would eventually rival iOS for market share, although we expect it to take a bit longer than three years. But, Mark Fidelman in writing for Forbes thinks that the entire Windows 8 lineup of mobile devices could surpass iOS devices in just three years. 

The rationale follows as such: Windows Phone is the fastest growing mobile platform, especially in emerging markets (where the real market share battle will be happening in the next few years) like Latin America and India, where WP is the second most popular mobile OS. The platform has gained 48% year-over-year in the Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) region; and, Nokia specifically saw a 366% increase year-over-year in sales in the U.S.. Windows Phone has the advantage in emerging markets, because Apple doesn't really do low-end pricing. 

We always need to be careful when trying to read into year-over-year growth statistics, because going from 3.5% of the market to 5% may give you a nicer percentage increase, but it doesn't really add up to a huge amount as far as actual sales. But, growing numbers (like those Windows is showing) are always better to see than numbers that are holding flat, or even declining a bit (as is happening with iOS). 

Of course, that's not the only factor in Fidelman's reasoning. The other part of the issue is Microsoft's "One Microsoft" strategy that is deeply integrating Windows Phone, Windows 8, and Xbox. That kind of convergence could very well prove to be an advantage. And then, there is of course the acquisition of Nokia, which will help Microsoft to offer better hardware options especially in emerging markets. 

We tend to agree with much of what Fidelman says, though we're not sure that the timetable is quite right. Unless Apple starts being more aggressive on pricing to target emerging markets, it will be hard to stop Microsoft's rise. It will certainly be a tough fight though, and one that we're glad to have front row seats for. 

source: Forbes

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posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:00 18

1. PapaSmurf (Posts: 10457; Member since: 14 May 2012)

Played around with a Lumia 1520 and boy is it a beauty. As soon as T-Mo releases a 1080p 5+ Nokia WP8, I'll buy it.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:32 3

11. alterecho (Posts: 1099; Member since: 23 Feb 2012)

You could buy the 1520 for the hardware alone and for its absolutely amazing and useful offline Nokia/HERE maps. On the other hand, i'd advice you to use some ones WP8 device for a day or two before you jump.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:54

25. PapaSmurf (Posts: 10457; Member since: 14 May 2012)

I can always sell it and keep using my Note 3.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 15:46 1

57. LordDavon (Posts: 136; Member since: 19 Sep 2011)

I didn't get the Note III. I'm going to wait for the Note IV. It was just too much of a bite out of my wallet to do, and the soon-to-be-wife needed a phone too. I got the Nexus 5 32GB, and she got the GS4.

I miss my S-Pen...

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 16:53

58. mcshank (Posts: 47; Member since: 24 Apr 2013)

I got the note 3 and I love it. Skipped the 2 as It was not good enough in my eyes when i saw the actual device. I wish I had yearly upgrades but I refuse to pay financing prices where I will spend more then I would just buying subsidized to get the note 4.. I want to see samsung in a steel body!

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:36 1

12. GeekMovement (unregistered)

Same here if Sprint gets a Lumia with the same specs you mentioned above I'm totally gonna rock it.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:15

34. XperiaFanZone (Posts: 2223; Member since: 21 Sep 2012)

What are you going to do with the Note 3, then?

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 13:26

46. PapaSmurf (Posts: 10457; Member since: 14 May 2012)

Nokia Lumia ____ = back up phone / secondary device.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:06 10

2. CreeDiddy (Posts: 957; Member since: 04 Nov 2011)

It won't happen. They will take away from Android's marketshare, but not iOS.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:14 16

5. QWIKSTRIKE (Posts: 1276; Member since: 09 Mar 2010)

We shall see....rofl

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:37 10

13. LetsBeHonest (Posts: 1489; Member since: 04 Jun 2013)

Windows phone has high potential and steady growth. They'll take away from both android's and iOS's market share but i don't think its going to happen in such less time.
i believe the key to increase market share is focusing on low end phones like lumia 520, since apple is not focusing on that but making phones like iPhone 5C and pricing it way too high.
there is alot other big market out side US , like India where there is no contract system so we have to buy phones off-contract which cost almost about 2 months salary. While google has optimized their OS to run efficiently on low specs.
so the chance of taking market share from ios is more than android . My opinion.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:23 5

35. PBXtech (Posts: 1032; Member since: 21 Oct 2013)

They already are taking away from iOS market share. PA posted an article a few days ago that clearly shows it happening all over the world.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:30 1

36. tedkord (Posts: 13863; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)

That's not what has happened so far.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 13:38 1

50. speckledapple (Posts: 892; Member since: 29 Sep 2011)

I think it will. There is much truth in how much growth is happening in those emerging markets and WP is doing really well there. if they keep the one strategy, they will end up being number two. But things do not need to just happen with MS, Apple also has to do one thing we expect, and that is to continue to have very slow growth in emerging markets. They are simply too expensive.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:09 1

3. Deaconclgi (Posts: 405; Member since: 03 Nov 2012)

Please fix the title. Windows Phone is NOT Windows. The Forbes article also said that Microsoft is acquiring Nokia and that is not true. Articles should be as accurate as possible without event a moment left open for confusion or misinformation.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:10 10

4. mayur007 (Posts: 577; Member since: 10 Apr 2012)

At the rate they are updating there OS "no way" in there life..

too much limitations...

i think it will only grow in low end market...

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:21 4

7. sumitrawal (Posts: 2; Member since: 06 Dec 2013)

FYI..they are updating at much higher pace than what lagdroid does.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:38 4

14. Reluctant_Human (Posts: 904; Member since: 28 Jun 2012)

Facts please?

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:04 4

28. haseebzahid (Posts: 1853; Member since: 22 Feb 2012)

3 updates in year one of WP8 i guesss thats good enough if you have slighest of idea about how these core updates are worked on its damn hard at start . i am not talking about features only but also the compatibilites and drivers like for quad cores extra RAM differnt cameras so its a tough shell to break in start. once that is done rest of features come at steady peace.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:44

18. mayur007 (Posts: 577; Member since: 10 Apr 2012)

bro .. what nokia is in the condition its totally because of so soft n fragile Microsoft..

slow updates and many more things bcoz of which it wont help Nokia and Microsoft as well

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:49 5

21. sprockkets (Posts: 1611; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)

What? It's been since Oct of 2012 that WP8 was released and they still haven't given it any major updates. Meanwhile, 4.2.x and 4.3 and 4.4 came out in that same timeframe.

You can count GDR updates if you wish, but that still is mostly bug fixes for two of them, with one being a major feature update. That STILL doesn't put it ahead of Android in any way shape or form.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:05 2

30. haseebzahid (Posts: 1853; Member since: 22 Feb 2012)

4.2 -- 4.3 there is no larg differnce only monior things added while 4.4 is looking to be major update others were patches of ICS

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:54

40. ballaonnabudget (Posts: 38; Member since: 15 May 2013)

I wouldn't call anything between 4.3 - 4.4 a major update. Androids last major update was probably 4.2.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 12:58 6

43. sprockkets (Posts: 1611; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)

4.3 added:

Bluetooth low energy support.
Bluetooth Audio/Video Remote Control Profile (AVRCP) 1.3 support
OpenGL ES 3.0 support, allowing for improved game graphics
Restricted access mode for new user profiles
Filesystem write performance improvement by running fstrim command while device is idle
Dial pad auto-complete in the Phone app[113]
Improvements to Photo Sphere[115]
Reworked camera UI, previously introduced on Google Play edition phones
Added fine-grained application permissions controls (hidden by default)
4K resolution support
Many security enhancements, performance enhancements, and bug fixes
System-level support for geofencing and Wi-Fi scanning APIs
Background Wi-Fi location still runs even when Wi-Fi is turned off
Developer logging and analyzing enhancements
Added support for five more languages
Improved digital rights management (DRM) APIs
Right-to-left (RTL) languages now supported
Clock in the status bar disappears if clock is selected as lockscreen widget

That's pretty much more than all of WP8's GDR updates.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 13:31

48. elitewolverine (Posts: 5192; Member since: 28 Oct 2013)

those are not on all devices, as well most of those are 'improvements'.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 13:45 1

52. sprockkets (Posts: 1611; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)

Any update to the core AOSP is available to any device OEM that chooses to use it.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 13:51 1

53. ballaonnabudget (Posts: 38; Member since: 15 May 2013)

"That's pretty much more than all of WP8's GDR updates."

Thats a broad and incorrect statement, won't even bother to provide you with the pages of updates to GR1-3. Clearly you have no idea whats been done to the WP8 OS if you think that 4.3 update is more than all GR's combined.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 14:23 4

55. sprockkets (Posts: 1611; Member since: 16 Jan 2012)

I've already looked up the GDR updates - from bug fixes to minor changes to features.

GDR 1: improvements and bugfixes, including enhancements in Messaging, more efficient Bluetooth connectivity, and an "always-on" setting for WiFi connections. Wow, earth shatting update there! A wifi toggle for always on, something android had since what, 4.0 at least?

GDR2: FM Radio (oh wow, what a new feature for such a 2013 phone!), data sense for everyone (not new, verizon wp8 phones had it, android 4.0 added that), BT fixes, html5 updates and CalDAV/CardDAV. Shucks, all features already in android.

GDR3 - Driving mode - the only real feature added. 1080p support, wow, android will have to wait for that since, again, 4.0. Oooo quad core support! Another 2+ year old feature on Android. Wow, close apps on the multi task switcher, oops introduced in android 3.0.

That's what, 7-8 new features, of which there is only like 2 major ones there? Yep, I called Bullsht on your pages of feature updates.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 17:08

59. utg001 (unregistered)

Android: 4.2 > 4.2.x > 4.3 > 4.4 > 5.0 / 4.5
Windows: WP8 > GDR1 > GDR2 > GDR3 > WP8.1

btw I agree that updates on WP have less than those on Android.

posted on 06 Dec 2013, 11:41 2

17. LetsBeHonest (Posts: 1489; Member since: 04 Jun 2013)

True WP lacks lots of basic features but thats about to change soon since almost all basic feature are expected to come out with WP 8.1 update and MS is planned to open the platform more also set to bring a file manager as well.
and the acquisition of nokia also helps in this matter since nokia is more dedicated to WP than MS in my opinion.

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