Forbes thinks Windows could surpass iOS in just three years

Forbes thinks Windows could surpass iOS in just three years
For now, it seems like Android isn't going to be losing its lead in the mobile market, so the interesting battles are happening with different platforms jockeying for position in second, third, and fourth places. Right now, we have a setup with Android on top, iOS as the clear number two, and Windows Phone as the clear number three. But, at least one outlet believes that Windows could surpass iOS in just three years.

The idea comes from Forbes, and it is a compelling one. We've often suspected that Windows Phone would eventually rival iOS for market share, although we expect it to take a bit longer than three years. But, Mark Fidelman in writing for Forbes thinks that the entire Windows 8 lineup of mobile devices could surpass iOS devices in just three years. 

The rationale follows as such: Windows Phone is the fastest growing mobile platform, especially in emerging markets (where the real market share battle will be happening in the next few years) like Latin America and India, where WP is the second most popular mobile OS. The platform has gained 48% year-over-year in the Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) region; and, Nokia specifically saw a 366% increase year-over-year in sales in the U.S.. Windows Phone has the advantage in emerging markets, because Apple doesn't really do low-end pricing. 

We always need to be careful when trying to read into year-over-year growth statistics, because going from 3.5% of the market to 5% may give you a nicer percentage increase, but it doesn't really add up to a huge amount as far as actual sales. But, growing numbers (like those Windows is showing) are always better to see than numbers that are holding flat, or even declining a bit (as is happening with iOS). 

Of course, that's not the only factor in Fidelman's reasoning. The other part of the issue is Microsoft's "One Microsoft" strategy that is deeply integrating Windows Phone, Windows 8, and Xbox. That kind of convergence could very well prove to be an advantage. And then, there is of course the acquisition of Nokia, which will help Microsoft to offer better hardware options especially in emerging markets. 

We tend to agree with much of what Fidelman says, though we're not sure that the timetable is quite right. Unless Apple starts being more aggressive on pricing to target emerging markets, it will be hard to stop Microsoft's rise. It will certainly be a tough fight though, and one that we're glad to have front row seats for. 

source: Forbes


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63 Comments

68. corporateJP

Posts: 2458; Member since: Nov 28, 2009

As long as Microsoft doesn't screw-up the Nokia formula and keeps releasing competitively-priced handsets (520 series and the 620) with superb build and quality and Apple keeps releasing overpriced trash and ignores immerging markets, this could very well happen.

65. londoner

Posts: 36; Member since: Sep 12, 2013

Ipone is getting obsolete. It will happen the same as Jobs.

64. JMartin22

Posts: 2426; Member since: Apr 30, 2013

Lol, it's a shame that WP potential growth past iOS in the future is going to be fueled solely by those crappy Lumia 5xx phones. It won't be because of the fact that people are using the best of what the Windows Phone platform has to offer. To those, it will be akin to a feature phone that they just need out of necessity for making phone calls, essentially.

67. rodneyej1

Posts: 3576; Member since: Jul 06, 2013

How is a Lumia 520 crapy❔

61. kobbycarson

Posts: 6; Member since: Dec 06, 2013

If apple doesn't reduce the prices of their low spec-ed devices sure windows mobile can overtake them.

56. jayjay1973

Posts: 4; Member since: Nov 21, 2013

selling 5 million $100 - 150 phones is not going to help WP. The only WP users I know also work for MS... They need to keep making great flagship phones and rebuild their name. Nokia needs to keep making kick ass phones and do for WP what samsung did for android. Having pride that WP sells the most $100 phones is not a good thing...

47. xfire99

Posts: 1207; Member since: Mar 14, 2012

WP can never surpass iOS, unless OEMs start to support WP again and problem is they already abandon the sinking ship.

66. brrunopt

Posts: 742; Member since: Aug 15, 2013

?? Nokia, HTC, huawei.and Samsung ; they aren't OEM's ?

38. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

According to this I dont think WP is a clear #3: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/smartphone-market-share-in-q3-brings-few-surprises.html/2/ This is why I keep saying why can some folks claim WP is having great growth when they are a few % points separated from BB?

42. ballaonnabudget

Posts: 38; Member since: May 15, 2013

That's in the US. Go look at BB worldwide compared to the others, its a joke.

44. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

We are about to be in 2014...thats almost 4 years since WP launched (it launched in Nov 2010 so will be fair and wait til Nov 2014 to call it 4 years) All BB has to do is something, anything in the bext few years with their OS and phones and we will still be talking about WP and BB fighting for the #3 spot.

49. elitewolverine

Posts: 5192; Member since: Oct 28, 2013

They did do something, z10 q10 and those were flops, there is a reason BB is looking for a buyer

54. ballaonnabudget

Posts: 38; Member since: May 15, 2013

But that's the thing nobody except BB fans thinks there's an actual fight. BB has declined the last 4 quarters and is in 4th place worldwide by a good margin. The only thing that will save them now is a Christmas miracle.

33. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Apple will last about as long as Nintendo. Nintendo is still profitable but we all know the Wii U is a sham compared to real consoles like the PS4 and Xbox One. It'll play out about the same way. Android = PS4 , WP8 = Xbox One, and IOS = Wii U. Except Apple will never do something as risky and gimmicky as the Wii to save themselves so Apple has nowhere to go but straight down. Might take awhile but Apple is reaching their saturation limit and will go down soon.

39. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Apple already did something risky...the orig iPhone. I hate Apple with a passion....but I gotta give them credit for jumping out there with the orig iPhone. It was risky, bold and it paid off. Sometimes...if it aint broke...dont fix it. Apple should stick to what they do best, WP and Google stick to what they do best. Sad thing is WP doesnt know what it does best yet....I think WP is still finding its way, trying to find itself.

63. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Yes but Apple played their iPhone card in the beginning and Nintendo didn't play the Wii card until Sony and Microsoft forced their hand. So when people finally get fed up with small screens and iOS, do you truly believe they have another iPhone card they can play? Not a chance.

41. ballaonnabudget

Posts: 38; Member since: May 15, 2013

Could you also tell us who's winning the super bowl this year so we can bet on it?

62. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

It's not that hard to see. Once Apple uses it's screen size increase they would simply have no more cards to play while Google and Microsoft will still have a full hand. It took them 3 years to increase the screen size to 4inches and and 6 iterations of IOS to make a substantial change in the OS. They are simply going to run out a cards and very soon. Microsoft still has a lot of room to grow and Android is flexible and power hungry enough to actually make use of the latest technology.

70. darkkjedii

Posts: 31805; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

LMAOOOOO Taters the great, Taters psychic extrodanaire, Taters the fanboy iHater knows all. +1 man

32. good2great

Posts: 1042; Member since: Feb 22, 2012

pretty accurate statement. i'm waiting for 2015 to switch back to WP. Can't see myself with a nokia device, maybe if MS manufactures its own phone or HTC.

23. tatail

Posts: 261; Member since: Jan 08, 2010

lol..

20. androiphone20

Posts: 1654; Member since: Jul 10, 2013

Let me save this link for later. Three years and I'm counting...

16. mottykels

Posts: 387; Member since: May 15, 2013

Im 100 percent agree with this

8. ArtSim98

Posts: 3535; Member since: Dec 21, 2012

I wouldn't be surprised if this happened. Windows phone has just so much potential.

6. shy2papa

Posts: 336; Member since: Jan 23, 2010

Highly unlikely if Apple releases iphone 6 with a bigger screen then boom

9. sumitrawal

Posts: 2; Member since: Dec 06, 2013

That is high end phone man.apple will never give their device a cost of 10000 INR.windows and lagdroid have low end phones.that is y they are succeeding

15. cse.vicky unregistered

Apple will release a bigger Iphone next year. It will come with some extra features. But it will be really costly according to some reports. "Because their profit margin has gone down". So I am not sure how people will react to it. Windows will definitely eat into Android's share. iOS share ? I am not so sure. Android will eat up iOS share, but then indirectly Windows will take up iOS share :)

37. tedkord

Posts: 17529; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Going to 4 inches didn't help their market share.

51. speckledapple

Posts: 902; Member since: Sep 29, 2011

They wont and it will still be much more expensive then it needs to be and that would disqualify them.

4. mayur007

Posts: 593; Member since: Apr 10, 2012

At the rate they are updating there OS "no way" in there life.. too much limitations... i think it will only grow in low end market...

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