Top Apple analyst says that the worst will be over soon for the iPhone

Top Apple analyst says that the worst will be over soon for the iPhone
Ming Chi-Kuo is considered one of the top Apple analysts in the business. In the past, he has made amazing calls on specs and features of upcoming iPhone models several months in advance. Now toiling for TF International Securities, when Ming says something about the iPhone, ignore it at your own risk. For example, according to MacRumors, the analyst says that the current slowdown in demand for Apple's iOS flavored handsets will be "soon over."

Citing lower than expected demand for the 2018 iPhones in China and in developing markets, Ming cut his estimates of iPhone shipments for the first calendar quarter of 2019 from a range of 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units. But the analyst expects a rebound starting with the second quarter, which runs from April through June. For those three months, Ming sees Apple delivering 34 million-37 million handsets, higher than the 30 million-35 million expected by Wall Street.

If the analyst is on track as usual, Apple's 29% year-over-year decline in calendar Q1 shipments will be followed by a lower 14% year-over-year decline for Q2 shipments. And the second half of this year will show even more improvement with deliveries over the last six months of 2019 matching the same period from 2018. That is, barring any worsening of the U.S.-China trade war.


For all of calendar 2019, Ming expects Apple to ship 188 million-192 million iPhones. Computing this statistic will require the use of anecdotal evidence now that Apple has decided to stop reporting iPhone sales every quarter.

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19 Comments

1. cncrim

Posts: 1590; Member since: Aug 15, 2011

Soon? Yes they can say 2020 is soon, no one know certain only more likely. Apple is giant company and she will going no where next 20 years.

6. IT-Engineer

Posts: 584; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Not so soon with their software bugs, according to Forbes: complaints about iOS 12.1.3 cutting off iPhone cellular data (to the extent Sprint issued an alert), the fear has been users will be stuck with only WiFi. But, as more and more iPhone owners upgrade, it is now clear iOS 12.1.3 is breaking WiFi as well.

28. Greenmule

Posts: 130; Member since: Apr 24, 2017

A Goldman Sachs analyst believes that Apple is not out of the woods yet; compares them to Nokia. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/goldman-sachs-says-apple-will-have-to-cut-2019-numbers.html

30. dimas

Posts: 3434; Member since: Jul 22, 2014

@cncrim Nokia also thought that they are unbeatable. Samsung survived because they have deeper pocket to adapt to the technology change. People in the business world can give all their analysis all they want but when the consumer's wallet speak, it is a different ball game.

2. obedchuni

Posts: 339; Member since: Jun 16, 2014

Spec war is almost over but the design war is still going on, this is where the apple should focus

21. Be_Mine unregistered

The Chinese OEMs are only warming up. I won't be surprised to see a phone with 16 GB Ram, 1 TB Storage before the end of this year.

34. Atechguy0

Posts: 918; Member since: Aug 03, 2018

Not happening this year or next. Besides iPhones still only single task. You cannot run multiple tasks simultaneously. So 16 GB of RAM would not only be costly, but a complete waste on a iPhone. However if you want to multitask on a smartphone, then buy an Android smartphone.

35. Be_Mine unregistered

I'm not talking about iPhone mate. :)

39. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

he can't see anything but apple, such an obsessed mate lol

3. Tipus

Posts: 911; Member since: Sep 30, 2016

Only If price will go down

5. IT-Engineer

Posts: 584; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

That's what I told her...

4. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2508; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

The only reason that April through June will show larger sales is because Apple will be releasing their lower cost options starting in March/April. The new low cost iPad, new iPod, and possibly even a new iPhone SE.

8. mootu

Posts: 1541; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

Ming Chi-Kuo is usually pretty accurate when it comes to hardware predictions but his sales number forecasts are always terrible. Every quarter he revises the numbers 3 or 4 times till he gets somewhere near the correct amount.

18. ahmadkun

Posts: 688; Member since: May 02, 2016

Naaaah .. Apple will be just fine! .. I remember we said the same for Blackberry and Nokia .. if i learnd something in this life it would be "nothing will stay forever!"

25. osterrich21

Posts: 190; Member since: Apr 14, 2017

The big problem with Apple is that it has lost that magic of being a perfect product, a status symbol. Today it is more a manufacturer of cell phones, equal to hundreds of others, and worse, without innovation and with products full of bugs and fragile. And the consumer is realizing this and not buying.

31. Greenmule

Posts: 130; Member since: Apr 24, 2017

Besides that, Apple is trying to increase profits by selling more cell phones. Which means that Apple has to compete purely on price. Price competition has never been a part of Apple's business model, even before cell phones. Here's a concept: by now, Siri should be able to tell me the birthday of my grandmother, just by asking "Siri, what's my grandmother's birthday?" Apple has always, always been about the user experience. They have forgotten that. Apple has to maintain too many iOS platforms for too many CPUs to actually add meaningful user experiences to the platform. Maybe they are out of ideas. Running out of ideas usually results fron corporate inbreeding.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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