Top Apple analyst says that the worst will be over soon for the iPhone

Top Apple analyst says that the worst will be over soon for the iPhone
Ming Chi-Kuo is considered one of the top Apple analysts in the business. In the past, he has made amazing calls on specs and features of upcoming iPhone models several months in advance. Now toiling for TF International Securities, when Ming says something about the iPhone, ignore it at your own risk. For example, according to MacRumors, the analyst says that the current slowdown in demand for Apple's iOS flavored handsets will be "soon over."

Citing lower than expected demand for the 2018 iPhones in China and in developing markets, Ming cut his estimates of iPhone shipments for the first calendar quarter of 2019 from a range of 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units. But the analyst expects a rebound starting with the second quarter, which runs from April through June. For those three months, Ming sees Apple delivering 34 million-37 million handsets, higher than the 30 million-35 million expected by Wall Street.

If the analyst is on track as usual, Apple's 29% year-over-year decline in calendar Q1 shipments will be followed by a lower 14% year-over-year decline for Q2 shipments. And the second half of this year will show even more improvement with deliveries over the last six months of 2019 matching the same period from 2018. That is, barring any worsening of the U.S.-China trade war.


For all of calendar 2019, Ming expects Apple to ship 188 million-192 million iPhones. Computing this statistic will require the use of anecdotal evidence now that Apple has decided to stop reporting iPhone sales every quarter.

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38 Comments

1. cncrim

Posts: 1571; Member since: Aug 15, 2011

Soon? Yes they can say 2020 is soon, no one know certain only more likely. Apple is giant company and she will going no where next 20 years.

6. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Not so soon with their software bugs, according to Forbes: complaints about iOS 12.1.3 cutting off iPhone cellular data (to the extent Sprint issued an alert), the fear has been users will be stuck with only WiFi. But, as more and more iPhone owners upgrade, it is now clear iOS 12.1.3 is breaking WiFi as well.

9. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

Did you also read Sprint admission that it’s happening because of its cellular network?

13. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

The article i refer to is published today by Forbes, and these cellular network issues are only occurring on IOS devices running 12.1.3. If you mean otherwise, please link to an article?

14. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

It doesn’t matter when Forbes found out; the connectivity issue appeared the first day iOS was released, only on Sprint network and the same day Sprint admitted that the network is to blame, not Apple.

15. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

The Cellular data issue was known before, even though it might be a problem with Sprint, which is not because other iphone users are having the same issues on other networks! That doesn't explain the Wifi issue! Again, link please!

19. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

As I have said it already: it’s very possible that the whole issue with iPhones is because of the carriers and the fact that their networks are built by/for Qualcomm (modems). I don’t know what affects the WiFi (for instance, I have a phone that gets WiFi problems when I enable the Bluetooth; if I change the SIM card with one from another carrier, the WiFi problem disappears). What link do you want from me? I read tens of articles from at least 4 sites and their sources; just google and you’ll find everything I’m saying. If you want links from me, it means I have to waste time, researching for info I already have and that costs money; are you willing to pay me for that time?

20. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Why so angry bruh? And no, you can't blame all the carriers just to take the blame of Apple. When a Software update is causing a problem with all carriers, it's the carriers, it's the buggy software. And no, the networks are not built by/for Qualcomm. If that's the came then other phones with other modem chips will have the same issue.

22. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

When the problems with the connection are related to the network of a single carrier (or carriers that are using the same technology), the carrier admits his guilt, I’m inclined to think Apple’s modems and software are ok. Sprint is using cdma, which is a Qualcomm proprietary tech. Do you know a phone - other than iPhone - that uses a modem not made by Qualcomm, is officially distributed in us and has no problem with Sprint and Verizon bands?

24. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

There are many chinese ones, but thats not the problem here. Even if all the carriers are using Networks built by Qualcomm, then that is Apple's problem when they chose Intel, they should have thought of that. And the problem with you mate is sure you are inclined to think whatever you want, but i have read most of your posts and not for once are you ready to call Apple out on their stupid acts, software or design. You always either spin it around or throw it on the other side as long as it makes apple clean. Let me tell you something, i hate apple to my core. Simply because they are greedy and their operating systems are closed and lacking behind. But i don't stand loyal to any other brand, i stand loyal to my needs. Whether it is Microsoft, Google or who ever it is i will call them out. If Apple releases a product that is better than the competition, then i will overlook the greedy part and buy the product because it will be best for my needs. Loyalty to a brand (Fanboys) is what i hate more than the brand itself.

26. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

Those Chinese phones are using QC made modems and those that don't have problem accessing cdma networks - do a little research before forming an opinion. 3 days ago, 08:43: "I too am pissed on Apple" I have many messages where I talked about iOS bugs, where I critiqued the design choices and I have said there are products and services that are better on other platforms; you just fail to read thorough. "i hate apple to my core" That's what will always keep you from choosing an Apple product, EVEN WHEN it will be the best for your needs. Your hate and preconceptions (greediness? just look for profit margins and you'll see Google is even more greedy than Apple, you'll also see that Samsung is just as greedy; I don't know what "closed" and "lacking behind" means to you, but I have found absolutely all the features that matters on iOS and I see a lot of features being adopted by other OSes) make you just as bad as a fanboy. I personally own 6 phones: 2 iPhones (1 is just a backup, I hardly power it) and 4 Android phones, I know the advantages and disadvantages of each and every one and every phone is the best at what I got it for. I have never hidden my preference for Apple's products, but that is not affecting my judgement when it comes to objective evaluations, I have never bought useless products - to me - just because they are made by Apple and I have never invented problems to other products just to feel good about my choices.

27. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Actually my first ever computer back in 1994 was a Macintosh. And i bought iphones for my wife and my kid. That is their preference. 2 years ago my had enough from iphones because of their cheap wifi antennas, i have a fibnet at home 500/500 mbits, on her iphone 4s, iphone 5, and the last one she had iphone 6, she couldn't get more than 40mbits download, while i could get 450-500 on my Samsung, Huawei and Oneplus 6t, while the Oneplus 3T couldn't get more than 250mbit, it was still better than Apple's. This is a small example, other times her iphones just froze up, lagged too much and required reboot, she used to tell to do something about it since im a Software Engineer, i could only tell her two things, one is im not into Apple's IOS, second just restart the phone this should help. She switched to Samsung, got happier, not she on the S8, it has problems too now, her phone became all the sudden too slow, unresponsive and she is confused whether to go back to Apple to try another brand like Huawei or Nokia. So no im not a fanboy of any brand. I'm a fanboy to Consumers.

32. Leo_MC

Posts: 6637; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

I'm sorry to hear you have problems, no matter what device you use :(. I don't remember what were the wifi speeds I got with the 5s, but 6 should have been able to give you at least 1-200 Mbps (tested by me); with 7 (that's when I installed the Gigabit line) I managed to get to 400+ Mbps. There are routers that are capping the speeds on wifi (a ZTE - can't remember the model - was capping the speeds to 60 Mbps, while it provided 300 Mbps on cable). You should have checked the battery health (you should have known, if you use computers since 1994, that the chip powers down when it doesn't have enough battery) to be sure, but you also did good, by changing the phone. S8 is a great device (I don't like the fp in the back and the battery life, but other than that it's a great choice), she just have to make sure she cleans the system from time to time (iOS does that automatically, but it's hardly a stress on Android, because Samsung has built in tools), or you could do that for her; with a good management, she can keep using it at least for another 2 years (I believe it will also get P, which has some very good features). We should all care about what's good for us and look forward to all the innovations and novelties - even the ones from companies we don't particularly like - because that's how we can demand better products from our preferred brands. Cheers!

23. midan

Posts: 2576; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

I have had zero network problems with my X over a year, all this time i thought i had Qualcomm modem. Few weeks ago It turn out that i have intel modem.

33. Vancetastic

Posts: 810; Member since: May 17, 2017

Don’t kid yourself...if your X had a toy modem made by Fisher-Price, you’d still say it had no issues.

37. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

me neither, also an intel modem, works perfectly. as i said before, most of these issues are exaggerated on the internet by people like vancetastic, who can't control his pathological hate for apple and spends hours a day trolling.

40. TheOracle1

Posts: 2039; Member since: May 04, 2015

Errrmm Vancetastic is an Apple user. Sounds to me like you're the one with a problem.

41. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

it seems to me you're one with a problem, since you felt the need to reply to my comment. turns out people are not allowed to say they don't have a problem with an intel modem cause it goes against yours (and others) idiotic ideas.

36. Atechguy0

Posts: 918; Member since: Aug 03, 2018

The worst is yet to come for Apple.

38. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

Not at all. It will dominate the market with the 2019 and 2020 iphones

28. Greenmule

Posts: 128; Member since: Apr 24, 2017

A Goldman Sachs analyst believes that Apple is not out of the woods yet; compares them to Nokia. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/goldman-sachs-says-apple-will-have-to-cut-2019-numbers.html

30. dimas

Posts: 3291; Member since: Jul 22, 2014

@cncrim Nokia also thought that they are unbeatable. Samsung survived because they have deeper pocket to adapt to the technology change. People in the business world can give all their analysis all they want but when the consumer's wallet speak, it is a different ball game.

2. obedchuni

Posts: 315; Member since: Jun 16, 2014

Spec war is almost over but the design war is still going on, this is where the apple should focus

21. Be_Mine

Posts: 207; Member since: Dec 29, 2013

The Chinese OEMs are only warming up. I won't be surprised to see a phone with 16 GB Ram, 1 TB Storage before the end of this year.

34. Atechguy0

Posts: 918; Member since: Aug 03, 2018

Not happening this year or next. Besides iPhones still only single task. You cannot run multiple tasks simultaneously. So 16 GB of RAM would not only be costly, but a complete waste on a iPhone. However if you want to multitask on a smartphone, then buy an Android smartphone.

35. Be_Mine

Posts: 207; Member since: Dec 29, 2013

I'm not talking about iPhone mate. :)

39. theviolinist

Posts: 209; Member since: Feb 03, 2018

he can't see anything but apple, such an obsessed mate lol

3. Tipus

Posts: 795; Member since: Sep 30, 2016

Only If price will go down

5. IT-Engineer

Posts: 515; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

That's what I told her...

4. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2293; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

The only reason that April through June will show larger sales is because Apple will be releasing their lower cost options starting in March/April. The new low cost iPad, new iPod, and possibly even a new iPhone SE.

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