Apple expected to go into a "supercycle" soon, but production difficulties slow it down


Apple is expected to go into overdrive mode with a so-called "supercycle" for iPhones this year, selling more than usual in the forthcoming year, according to multiple researchers and analysts, but one of the most well-respected ones - Ming-Chi Kuo from KGI Securities - says that this "supercycle" will happen later than expected.

The reason? Apple is facing production difficulties that will only be "significantly addressed" in 2018. What Kuo refers to is the brand new TrueDepth camera system that will be able to make a very accurate 3D scan of a person's face and it will be used in place of Touch ID to unlock the phone.

But there is something else: Kuo believes that the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus and the iPhone X are not appealing enough and Apple has saved the major new features for the 2018 iPhone models. With component shortages figured out, the Cupertino company will then truly be able to go into superdrive to achieve the supercycle that analysts expect, only a year later.

Here is what Kuo wrote in his most recent report:


Another interesting tid-bit from the report mentions the Apple iPhone 8 Plus: Kuo says the larger iPhone has been selling "better than expected".

source: KGI Securities via MacRumors

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18 Comments

1. dubaiboy78

Posts: 446; Member since: Sep 19, 2014

Too much marketing publicity iphonearena!!!!

5. Jimrod

Posts: 1605; Member since: Sep 22, 2014

Yeah, next to the "Swollen battery", Huawei Mate 10, Google Home, Pixel 2 and Samsung Gear fit articles right? You haters all see what you want to see. It's bias.

12. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

Yea but those articles aren't outright BS. Most analysts have given up on the unicorn that is the "supercycle", which sounds like something a 3 year old would call their new tricycle. They keep imagining that just like with the iPhone 6, there will be a huge upsurge in iPhone sales and the glory days of Apple will return, and every Apple mouthpiece will get a pat on the back from their fruity overlords. They keep ignoring the fact that the iPhone 6 only did well because of China. That without broad popularity in China, they won't get their supercycle. I mean where are they expecting to get 10-20 million more sales from in their existing territories? Are we finally going to see all these Android switchers that Tim Cook keeps mentioning but the data never seems to show?

2. dubaiboy78

Posts: 446; Member since: Sep 19, 2014

Ip8 combo selling "better than expected"?!?!??! R u kidding???? Too much iphone 8 here in UAE and no one is buying!

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7367; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

I have gone into a number of stores where I live, and a lot of them said that they initially had some sales for the new iPhone 8's, but that has now dropped right off. Same time last year there was a few shortages for the iPhone 7. There was even more shortages for the iPhone 6s. What does Apple expect if you offer very little, yet ask for more money. It really comes down to Apple with their current market share, verses more money. For instance Apple sold the most iPhone's in 2015 with 226 million. 2016 Apple sold 216 million. If 2017 goes down to 210 million. Then that is a 3 year drop in overall user base and market share.

15. worldpeace

Posts: 3133; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

Well, they aren't delusional, this phone is literally iPhone 6SSS, they won't expect much selling from this phone. Probably they even surprised that people still buying this ugly phone that will get obsolete next month

3. uncle_gadget

Posts: 1050; Member since: Sep 20, 2017

It may be sellout better than expected, so that means they expect low sales do to increased priced and nothing really new over the iPhone 7, especially the design.

6. Macready

Posts: 1821; Member since: Dec 08, 2014

" Apple has saved the major new features for the 2018 iPhone models" Sounds familiar? It's because we've been hearing the same thing for a couple of years now. Like that carrot on a stick held in front of the donkey while riding. It's getting closer, quickly, next turn, you'll see!

10. Iodine

Posts: 1480; Member since: Jun 19, 2014

Nope, it’s like a hungry donkey going trough a row of carrots, each better than the last.

14. Macready

Posts: 1821; Member since: Dec 08, 2014

...and another donkey that fell for it.

7. HansP

Posts: 542; Member since: Oct 16, 2011

"Even I think the fake news on iPhonearena are getting too ridiculous, just to sell one or two extra iPhones." -Steve Bannon

8. BullDozer

Posts: 157; Member since: Dec 18, 2015

This Ming-Chi Kuo hyped super-cycle already year ago. Now trying to save face?

9. Tech-shake

Posts: 213; Member since: Nov 14, 2016

Every one, including Apple themselves, have been hyping this super cycle ever since the iPhone 6 was announced. ANOTHER APPLE SUPER CYCLE IS NOT HAPPENING. The iPhone 6 when it was announced it came at a time where there really anything similar to it on the android side: Samsung was selling plastic bricks, google treating the nexus line as an experiment, and the over all android system experience wasn’t there. On the other hand, Apple had a premium looking phone with larger screen than previous iPhones and it has stable system updates. Many people on android jumped ships during that time. Things are different now, Samsung literally has one of the best looking phones around, Android is better than ever, and even a midrange phone can give you a lot. Unless Apple does something nobody on the market is doing today, they will never ever have another super cycle!

11. Iodine

Posts: 1480; Member since: Jun 19, 2014

Make more, sell more.

13. p51d007

Posts: 704; Member since: Nov 24, 2013

I remember back in the 70's...if you had a copy machine, it was a Xerox. Everyone had Xerox. Then, in the 80's & 90's, Sharp, Canon, Toshiba, Minolta really stuck it to Xerox, and, save for their big end production machines, you never see them around the offices like you use to. Xerox sat back on their hind end. The same, now, can also somewhat, be said for Apple. They started the smartphone "revolution", similar to how Xerox, started the office copy machine revolution, then, sat back on their hind end and failed to innovate. Look at Apple...pushing pretty much the same thing year after year after year. Look how long it took, for them to make a LARGE screen smartphone. Maybe something will happen before Apple, becomes like Xerox.

16. htcisthebest

Posts: 436; Member since: Nov 15, 2011

A supercycle of downfall?

17. joey18

Posts: 668; Member since: Jul 20, 2010

Iphone x too much drama i believe the phone they have over millions in stock 999 good price for apple but not for the consumers

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