Apple & Samsung will benefit the most from Huawei's downfall: Kuo

Apple & Samsung will benefit the most from Huawei's downfall: Kuo
Huawei is currently the world’s second largest smartphone manufacturer behind Samsung and ahead of Apple. But due to its US ban, this title could soon be in jeopardy, and according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, it’ll be Huawei’s closest rivals that benefit the most.

Huawei's shipments could drop to just 180 million units


Prior to Google and many other companies cutting ties with Huawei, analysts were predicting smartphone shipments of around 270 million units for the brand by the end of 2019. However, a “critical issues and scenario analysis” based on discussions with investors over the past couple of weeks shows that this number could now be significantly lower.

If Huawei somehow manages to launch its Android replacement by July, the best-case scenario would see the company’s shipments for 2019 totaling between 240 and 250 million units. Unfortunately, Huawei recently confirmed that its in-house operating system won’t be ready for launch on a global scale until the beginning of 2020, meaning this outcome is extremely unlikely.

With each extra month that goes by without a launch, sales are predicted to fall by an average of 8-10 million units. If Huawei doesn’t fast track its operating system, by the end of 2019 the company’s shipments could sit between just 180 and 200 million units, something that could potentially place it behind Apple in the rankings once again.

In addition to lower shipments, Huawei is also facing a massive brand trust issue. “Even if the U.S. cancels the export ban, customers may not turn back and buy Huawei products.” Similarly, it’s noted that component suppliers from across the globe may have concerns about doing business with Huawei in the future and international carriers may be less willing to sell the company’s devices. In fact, some operators have already “stopped selling Huawei smartphones.”

Samsung and Apple may benefit substantially


The Huawei ban certainly isn’t a positive situation for consumers as less competition means there’s less pressure on brands to innovate. Companies such as Samsung and Apple may have reason to celebrate internally, though.

If Huawei loses share in non-Chinese markets such as Europe and India as predicted, the latest forecasts suggest Samsung could ship 300 million smartphones at a minimum this year and a maximum of 320 million. Previous forecasts, for comparison, predicted shipments of 290 million units for the brand.

Presumably, most of Samsung’s extra shipments will come from the mid-range and budget segments thanks to its updated Galaxy A series that has proven popular globally and the budget Galaxy M line. However, the upcoming Galaxy Note 10 and Galaxy Note 10 Pro could benefit substantially from Huawei’s downfall too. After all, consumers will probably be less interested in Huawei’s Mate 30 flagships.

As for Apple, Ming-Chi Kuo says shipments could return to 200 million units this year thanks to increased market share in global markets, something that will offset loss of sales in China. Prior to this, forecasts suggested the Cupertino-based company would ship around 185 million devices. Also, Kuo wasn't expecting iPhone shipments to return to the 200 million mark until next year following the first 5G iPhone launch, but it now seems as though Christmas may have come early for the brand.

Unsurprisingly, Apple’s extra sales should come in the form of premium devices. Huawei still trails behind in third place when it comes to flagship smartphones, but the reduced interest in Huawei P and Mate-branded models will undoubtedly help Apple a little.

Unfortunately for us, today’s investors note didn’t make mention of any other companies. With Xiaomi keen to expand its global presence with the help of its Redmi sub-brand, though, strong growth for Huawei’s Chinese rival could certainly be possible.

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23 Comments

1. oldskool50

Posts: 1529; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

Apple likely won't with the latest news from China. China is planning to start blocking companies iOS who help the US block their interests. If this happens, Apple could potentially suffer. With prices expected to go up do to tariff's, Apple isn't gonna benefit very much if at all. If Apple can't compete on price, which they never have.; their benefit will be minor.

2. apple-rulz

Posts: 2112; Member since: Dec 27, 2016

To state an overused but often appropriate phrase-it's too bad you can't collect rent from all the space Apple occupies in your mind.

7. oldskool50

Posts: 1529; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

The articles speaks about Apple. So it's not in my head. To bad your head is fikkin empty. You're such a troll. That's why hopefully soon Apple will be dead and you won't have a damn thing to talk about.

10. apple-rulz

Posts: 2112; Member since: Dec 27, 2016

You’re on every single Apple article commenting. Just buy an iPhone already and stop obsessing.

13. midan

Posts: 2847; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Nailed

14. midan

Posts: 2847; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

You are dead before Apple, sorry if this hurts. Apple is not going anywhere.

22. whatev

Posts: 2259; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

I’m glad he’s going straight to another melt down soon and will be banned again, I hope this time is the definitive, how annoying has been techie through all these years, he still doesn’t understand people doesn’t like his annoying presence on the site *rollseyes

5. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1418; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

I think primarily Samsung stands to gain from all the unrest. Xiaomi might pick up a bit of Huawei's lost market share, but I don't see Apple benefitting much, if at all, from Huawei's loss.

9. oldskool50

Posts: 1529; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

Samsung will likely not gain much traction in China. But now that Samsung has cheap options that look premium, they can most certainly gain sales outside China in the demise of Huawei.

11. kanagadeepan

Posts: 1258; Member since: Jan 24, 2012

Apple will regain the number two spot.. Isn't this a gain??

6. Xxtoxicskittlexx

Posts: 190; Member since: Jun 11, 2018

A caveman could predict that.

8. oldskool50

Posts: 1529; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

Josh. What is wrong with you? Apple sales were dropping in China before this war. With the iPhone price being too high for 95% of China and in most countries outside the US, I want you to explain how the hell Apple is gonna gain anything? Apple sales are dropping everywhere.The Tariff's are gonna force Apple products prices to increase in the US, where they already are too high. If China's gov't bans tech companies like Foxconn to not even produce parts or the iPhone itself, what will Apple gain? Are you so loyal to Apple that you lack the most common of sense that you are blind to obvious facts? Huawei past Apple without even having the United States available to them. I would like to know, why are Apple fans so stupid, that they think Apple is impervious to anything other than a nuclear holocaust. I hope to God the Chinese Gov't bans Apple and every other US company who builds products in their country and prevents any an all US exports or imports to and from their country. Analysts have already predicted that due to the iPhone's price, APple stands to lose enough sales that they could fall below 150M sales next year. And with this stupid crap Trump is doing, the cost of all goods from China are going to increase. The one an ONLY way Apple can keep their products price the same, they would have to absorb those in order to not have the all-out assault on China to not totally effect them. Sorry, knowing Apple they will never do such. China citizens have already stopped buying iPhone's as you can see that APple sales numbers have dropped in China. Samsung dropped in China years ago, because at the time they were selling cheap plastic phones, while Chinese OEM's started using flagship quality materials and selling it at plastic phones prices. By the time Samsung finally answered, it was too late. Apple cannot compete on price and with what Trump is doing, the iPhone in China will soon be seen as a symbol of how the US show great disrespect to their country and it will become the most hated company in their country. The iPhone in China potentially will no longer be seen as the device of prestige and wealth, but the symbol of hate and disgust. China is a communist country Josh, one single blow from their Gov't and Apple would fall to near death. It would take at least 2 years before Apple could fine alternatives to be able to make 200M phones, which would give OEM's like Samsung, Xioami and others. Even HTC right now could get a reprieve if they hurry up and gamble . You guys are shamelessly stubborn when it comes to Apple. What country is Hyundai from? Ask them how it went with their trade war. Hyundai lost so many sales, they left China. Apple and others could be next.

12. joshuaswingle

Posts: 590; Member since: Apr 03, 2018

I'm not reading all of that. I didn't write this report, I just wrote a story based on what Ming-Chi Kuo is predicting. If you don't agree with something, tell him because, once again, I DIDN'T WRITE THIS REPORT. It contains ZERO of my opinion.

19. Vancetastic

Posts: 1291; Member since: May 17, 2017

“I’m not reading all of that.” I think you’ve expressed the feelings of all of us. I’m not sure if these guys even read the articles before showering the the comment section with their weird, hateful obsession with all things Apple.

15. midan

Posts: 2847; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

”Analysts have already predicted that due to the iPhone's price, APple stands to lose enough sales that they could fall below 150M sales next year.” Who said this? Source? Going under 150M sounds very unrealistic. If they sell 40 million every q even that gives them 160M. Selling below 150M would give them average 37,5M sales in one q. that’s very unlikely thing to happen. I think they will sell something like 180-190M and propably analysts are thinking same kind of number, not below 150M.. :D And for the ending ”'iPhone 5G' in late 2020 will drive 200 million sales for Apple, says Ming-Chi Kuo”

16. midan

Posts: 2847; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Another analyst ” As per a report on Barron’s, Apple iPhone’s sales will go down further in the coming years, with the analyst predicting shipments to drop to 204 million in 2019 and to just 200 million units in the year 2020.” 200M is quite far from below 150M, isn’t it? ;)

17. mootu

Posts: 1517; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

Apples sales are down 10million for Q1 according to the latest figures from Gartner, 44 million against 54 million same quarter last year, thats a drop of 17.5% year on year. Market share is down to 11.9% compared to 14.1% for Q1 2018. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-05-28-gartner-says-global-smartphone-sales-declined-2-7--in

18. midan

Posts: 2847; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

What’s your point? 4x44 is 176M. And Apple will have strong end of the year like every year. Like i said something really weird has to happen to Apple to drop below 150M and no-one is expecting that except techie ;)

20. Vancetastic

Posts: 1291; Member since: May 17, 2017

Analysts can say just about anything, then. Sounds like a pretty good job!

21. lyndon420

Posts: 6784; Member since: Jul 11, 2012

Dude...your comments are longer than the articles themselves.

23. notfair

Posts: 740; Member since: Jan 30, 2017

and much more better than the article.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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