Analysts lower expectations on Windows Phone sales

Analysts lower expectations on Windows Phone sales
Two analytic firms, IHS iSuppli and IDC, were among some research companies that were calling for Windows Phone sales to surpass those of the Apple iPhone by 2015 or 2016 at the latest. The thinking was that Nokia's Symbian users would switch to its Windows Phone powered models allowing Microsoft's mobile OS  to trail only Android world wide. But there is a fly in the ointment. Instead of  switching to Windows Phone models, Symbian users are swapping to Android phones instead.

IHS senior analyst in wireless communications, Wayne Lam, says his firm has "ratcheted back" its prediction of Windows Phone sales and now expects the OS to trail both Android and iOS in 2015 instead of fitting between the two. In January, Lam wrote that the Nokia Lumia 900 launch was the start of a  "renaissance" for both Microsoft and Nokia. Lam predicted that Windows Phone would have a 16.7% slice of the smartphone pie by 2015, slipping past the 16.6% share he estimated would belong to iOS in that year. Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, says his firm has slightly lowered its estimate of Windows Phone's marketshare to 20.1% in 2016. While not a large decline from the original 20.9% share forecast, it is enough to keep Windows Phone from topping iOS by that year.

Part of the reason for the lower expectations for Windows Phone is that companies are allowing employees to bring their own smartphone to work which usually means more Android and Apple iPhone models in the workplace. Instead of being forced to use a BlackBerry or Windows Phone model at work, employees are taking their own handsets with them to the office. The analysts still see Windows Phone as being a successful consumer device. IDC's Llamas specifically mentions the Nokia Lumia 900 as having a strong UI and user experience comparable to the Apple iPhone or many Android devices. Originally, analysts estimated that 30-40 million Windows Phones would be sold in 2012, but with sales not up to forecasts so far this year, it is going to require more than just the Nokia Lumia 900 to get Windows Phone sales to that level.

source: Computerworld via WMPoweruser

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Lumia 900
  • Display 4.3" 480 x 800 pixels
  • Camera 8 MP / 1.3 MP front
  • Processor Qualcomm Snapdragon S2 APQ8055, Single core, 1400 MHz
  • Storage 16 GB
  • Battery 1830 mAh(8h 3G talk time)

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34 Comments

1. RobotMan

Posts: 145; Member since: Apr 13, 2012

Windows Phone 7, nah, not a chance. WP8, maybe, hope not the same tiles UI as WP7.

9. anywherehome

Posts: 971; Member since: Dec 13, 2011

1) the old models probably wont get new WP 2) very very limited system 3) strange UI 4) high prices.....still decreasing but no help tell me just ONE reason I should buy it instead of Android or iPhone? A) If I want a limited OS I would buy more spread iPhone B) for everything else I have Android so why WP???

14. CharlieAtInfinity

Posts: 253; Member since: Apr 10, 2012

I agree with you 100% and you forgot one thing.. apps on a WP are more expensive than Android and iPhone so why buy a Windows Device? and most of the apps perform under "limited" capacity on the WP than on Android or iOS

19. haseebzahid

Posts: 1853; Member since: Feb 22, 2012

Its what you say not everyone hates its features and not everyone likes APPLE and ANDROID so why not buy the new thing unlike most guys are like old people who just want to stick with what they have rather try new stuff its not a fail OS its brilliant only problem is its new and started from Scratch so it will take its time just like Android did for i think 4 years to gain market share so why does people thinks "OW its a fail OS" without even looking at its potential because MS is way bigger then APPLE not just Mobile imagine what will they integrate with WP8 or WP_OS APPLE don't even have features that MS can integrate. for example if MS is shutdown today every company will go down with it if Apple goes down only handful will suffer. forget about ANDROID its only an OS it don't even have orign it was made on forums.

23. anywherehome

Posts: 971; Member since: Dec 13, 2011

yes, why not....but the sales prove what I said :)

24. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

Old models will get some working version of WP8. And all the complaints on WP7 and it's App development seem to come from people who think iOS and Android both started with their OS mature. Did iOS start with version 5 and 500,000 apps? Was Cupcake as good or as well supported as ICS is? WP is farther along and well more supported at 2 years old than anyone could hope for. Can it still fail? Sure, especially if RIM bounces back with BB10. Apple and Android users will most likely stay with their OS, leaving WP and Nokia trying hard to build their base. But it is a fast, enjoyable, well supported, and unique OS. Not to mention Microsoft is in this for the long haul and has enough HUGE profits from other sources. WP will be Okay, haters. Enjoy your devices,

28. medicci37

Posts: 1361; Member since: Nov 19, 2011

It's 2012 & i don't want a os that isn't mature (not willing to wait years for MS to get their OS together) & knowing MS's history (Zune & Vista for instance) I see no reason to put any faith in them. Also, MS has not given any reason to think existing phones will be updated to W8.

29. jackhammeR

Posts: 1548; Member since: Oct 17, 2011

with so stupid attitude like yours there would be no progress at all.

2. max9777

Posts: 78; Member since: Dec 11, 2011

This is some interesting analytic response from these people. I hope they don't embarrass themselves in the long run :)

3. raunak

Posts: 507; Member since: Oct 12, 2011

i think its still early to talk about sales. No one knows what will happen when nokia lumia pureview with WP8 and lumia tablets launches.

6. aoikemono27

Posts: 177; Member since: Feb 27, 2012

Not too early to talk about sales. It's almost May already. WP8 won't come out until the end of the year and it will have to compete with the completely redesigned iPhone5 as well as a lackluster WP7 base to build from. No new device will launch until WP8. Samsung has jumped off the bandwagon until WP8. HTC just released an "update" to their Titan phone, which is arguably worse in many respects to the original. LG doesn't have anything, nor Sony. Huawei/ZTE/Acer not worth mentioning. The only thing even keeping WP7 afloat is the Lumia 800/900 since everyone else has backed off. The sales are not phenomenal by any means. 30-40million is ludicrous. The Galaxy S only sold 10mil and it was considered revolutionary, the S II probably 20 mil. The Nokia PureView is a moronic Symbian phone, which has yet to get released, ditto to the WP7 version which will take even longer since Nokia takes forever to release products, and the PureView itself is a niche product that will turn off buyers with its appearance and super thick body. 2012 Is not shaping up the way Microsoft has hoped and Nokia really hasn't delivered at all. A blown up N9 isn't gonna revolutionize anything. Better luck in 2013 with WP8.

4. phonton

Posts: 65; Member since: Dec 27, 2011

yet another topic for a debate

5. Roomaku

Posts: 278; Member since: Feb 06, 2012

They need to get some folders then everything will work out for WP.

7. ron1niro

Posts: 54; Member since: Mar 28, 2012

predictions, speculation, this is how people embarrass themselves. The guy who said that nokia wouldn't be able to sell more than 1 million lumia 710's and 800's, where is he now? They have sold over 1.5 million of those and their availability hasn't been so widespread. It is not fair to compare sales of lumias with those of i-phones or galaxy s2's. Windows phone is a new product that is just starting to pick up.

10. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

New product? It launched in Nov 2010... Compare that to Android. Even tho the G1 launched in 2008, Android didnt really pick up steam until the Droid 1 and Eris launched at the end of 2009. By the middle of 2010...Android was already creeping up the marketshare charts. Getting ready to pass Win Mo. Thats another thing....Micsosoft already had a smartphone out there before both Android and the iPhone. And lets not forget that compared to Android and the iPhone....Microsoft has been at this waaaay longer.

13. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

And WP7 launched with waaaaay more phones than Android did. Phones with better specs too.

26. snowgator

Posts: 3621; Member since: Jan 19, 2011

And again, as I stated in an above post, Android was a shell of what it is now. And your "better spec" argument shows you.are not paying attention or are just anti-WP. All anyone who ever has held a WP in their hand has ever heard is how far behind it is in Apps, features, and hardware. That is why WP 8 is so important: It will be the first time it can go toe to toe in an almost fair fight with Android and Apple.

31. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Thats my point...WP7 was much further along than Android when they both launched, dont really know about iOS. Look how fast Android grew in about the same amount of time that WP7 has been out. The fact that for specs it launched with better specs....I'm talking about when both OS's launched. Really...WP7 still had better specs than most low end Android phones when it launched...and WP7 is a smoother scrolling experience... Those 2 things ppl can see and feel for themselves in the store. There should be no reason it isnt climbing the marketshare charts.

8. ZubairRaz

Posts: 5; Member since: Oct 20, 2011

I was a Symbian user, used belle as well and now switched to android not wp7... coz its too limited yet...

11. kslaughter32296

Posts: 11; Member since: Aug 12, 2011

No offense to wp7, but android is better than wp7 and ios put together. I mean yes, some of the windows phones out there have better hardware, I will admit. but android has the best apps ever. the best free games, the best free music downloader ever (btw guys any android ppl out there, look up music download wizard, and get the easy music wizard. when it is downloaded and installed it will say arrow player and it has a huge library to choose from) but yeah.

22. Mozarrt

Posts: 301; Member since: Oct 08, 2011

But everything looks designed by a 3 year old, I'm even trading in my dualcore Xperia S for a Lumia 800.

12. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

What analyst need to realize is that overall Android is a decent mobile OS and the hardware is decent. Ppl need a reason to switch. Granted going WP7 gives one smoother scrolling than Android so there is no need for one to feel like they HAVE to go iPhoe for that. WP7 would be my next mobile OS if one day I was tired of Android. So far....I dont see me leaving Android. I have been saying this since 2010: MS waited too long to try to answer the iPhone. They waited too long to go to capacitive screens. So far they just waited too long. We will see in the next 2-3 years if that wait can be overcome. If not...MS should just get paid from the lisence fees they already get paid for from some of the Android manufactures. Stop wasting money if WP7 doesnt get the sales they want.

15. jove39

Posts: 2148; Member since: Oct 18, 2011

Microsoft is not able to enhance WP like Android...see the way Android has progressed in last couple of years from 2.x to 4.x. WP progress is...slow...still no hd display...multi-core cpu support...and top of all no customization.

16. shreyasdilip

Posts: 8; Member since: Apr 24, 2012

I believe that windows phone will rise in the next 3 or 4 yrs as they try to increase the hardware specs, truthfully tho, windows phone will be third in the smartphone market! WP 8 will definitely cause a dent in the market share of ios and Android but not enough to take over ios!

17. shreyasdilip

Posts: 8; Member since: Apr 24, 2012

and seriously no Symbian user will comfortably switch to windows phone, the openness of Symbian will drive them towards Android... Apps are so easy to install! WP is very ios like in its approach, which will deter some Symbian users

18. kanagadeepan

Posts: 1273; Member since: Jan 24, 2012

Yes, that is one of the most important reason for me a die-hard symbian user to switch to Android...

20. haseebzahid

Posts: 1853; Member since: Feb 22, 2012

I did switched to WP7 u NOOB after i had DEMO on IOS/ANDROID WP7 is way more better performing and easy then ANDROID even a single core wp7 can match against Android highest spec mobile and android can only be better in fraction against WP7.so after multi-core android will obviously be behind WP8 in performance and application are not an issue they will add up in time

33. shreyasdilip

Posts: 8; Member since: Apr 24, 2012

You idiot, I switched from Symbian to wp7 and the one thing I missed was the easy app installation, if I couldn't get it from the ovi store I'd just get some app off the net and instantly install it.. I never talked about the performance.. Comprehend before you call someone a noob!

34. haseebzahid

Posts: 1853; Member since: Feb 22, 2012

*NOOB*

21. darktranquillity

Posts: 285; Member since: Feb 28, 2012

Agree,i was a symbian user for almost 4 years before jumping in on the android wagon.

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