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Analyst says Apple iPhone 8/8 Plus sales will suffer in fiscal Q4 and rebound in the next period

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Analyst says Apple iPhone 8/8 Plus sales will suffer in fiscal Q4 and rebound in the next period
While some analysts see the delay in the launch of the Apple iPhone X helping to generate quick sales for the Apple iPhone 8 and Apple iPhone 8 Plus, not all agree. Daniel Gleason, the senior analyst at Ovum, said that there are two types of iPhone buyers. Those who have to have the latest phone will be put off by the November 3rd launch date for the tenth anniversary model. Those who would be satisfied with the iPhone 8 or iPhone 8 Plus won't be rushing to pick up either model right away. As a result, Gleason expects those belonging to the latter group, waiting to check out the iPhone X before deciding which model to buy.

As a result, Gleason sees Apple's fiscal fourth quarter results negatively impacted by the late arrival of the anniversary edition. Normally, the launch of the new iPhone models every year has been a positive for Apple during the end of its fiscal fourth quarter in September. But if enough potential iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus buyers decide to check out the iPhone X first before making a purchase, Apple will probably report lower fiscal fourth quarter revenue than it normally might have.

Gleason says that with the September 22nd launch of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, Apple will have eight days of sales to report for the fiscal fourth quarter. Normally, that would result in between 10 million and 12 million iPhone handsets getting sold during that period. But with some buyers waiting first to see what the iPhone X offers, the analyst sees Apple recording half the sales of new iPhone models for the quarter than it usually does. 

"The iPhone X will potentially hamper and damage the sales of the iPhone 8 … that's a very big risk because the iPhone launch events in late September have always been a very very big sales event for Apple. They've always helped perk up their late Q3 numbers and led into very strong Q4s,"-Daniel Gleason, senior analyst, Ovum

Another issue affecting fiscal Q4 sales of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus is that next year, the sequel to these two handsets ( most likely called the Apple iPhone 8s and Apple iPhone 8s Plus) will each reportedly feature an OLED screen. According to Abhey Lamba, managing director of Americas research at Mizuho, this could lead some consumers to hold off on purchasing one of the two standard iPhone models for another year

"We expect the company to include new display technology and offer an updated design next year when OLED screens will be more broadly available. As such, mainstream iPhone users might consider pushing out their purchases to next year when they can get greater innovation at a lower price."-Abhey Lamba, managing director of Americas research, Mizuho

The good news for Apple is that in the following quarter (fiscal Q1 of 2018), the delayed sales could get booked, giving Apple a better than usual kick off to fiscal year 2018. Analysts see the tech titan posting fiscal Q1 revenue of $86.8 billion, up from last year's $78.4 billion.

source: CNBC

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posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:16 2

1. kiko007 (Posts: 5733; Member since: 17 Feb 2016)


Delays messing with money flow? Shareholders aren't gonna like that, at all. Apple REALLY should work on acquiring factories and equipment so they can build at least a fraction of their merchandise. Sadly, that's not going to happen anytime soon.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:37 17

6. bobby84 (Posts: 547; Member since: 13 May 2016)


Y'all sheep's will buy anything iPhone so just settle for the 8. Y'all don't care about small bezels, y'all need a fps because Samsung put their in a "akward" spot. y'all cried foul because the fps became so dear to y'all hearts, and now the X don't have one. So settle for the 8, you don't need higher resolution you want notice it anyway?. Face unlock is a gimmick right? Samsung oled, nobody care about that, so settle! Notifications and quick setting in the top like android gotta be kidding of course u don't want that, so go for the 8.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:40 4

10. kiko007 (Posts: 5733; Member since: 17 Feb 2016)


You... uh... you good there bud?

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 16:02 13

15. bobby84 (Posts: 547; Member since: 13 May 2016)


Did my comment hit home

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 17:41 4

24. Jolliebee (banned) (Posts: 39; Member since: 12 Sep 2017)


Haha. Facts!

OLED has burn in. But Samsung phones haven't had such issue since the S5.

We domt care OLED isnt as good as LCD. Even when it was.

We dont need or want gimmicky useless features that make phones seem slow.

Apple announces, Touch I'D, Face I'D mad Wireless charging. OMG! I can't wait to get my hands on it and use all those cool gimmicky features I hated when i didn't have it.

You domt n33d 1440p. We will settle for 2k+. It's good enough even foe $1000.

Because no phome is worth $1000 except the iPhone.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 22:28 2

34. trojan_horse (Posts: 5337; Member since: 06 May 2016)


"Because no phone is worth $1000except the iPhone."

/s

posted on 14 Sep 2017, 00:38

37. P-YWS (Posts: 103; Member since: 12 Aug 2011)


Apple is like God. So, let's just donate our hard-earned cash to whatever/however/whenever Apple asks. Period.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:51

13. jacky899 (Posts: 121; Member since: 16 May 2017)


Apple really needs to start setting up their own factories or invest in other parts manufacturers so they don't have to rely on Samsung anymore. When Samsung knows they have the leverage, they will screw Apple over at any opportunity.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 17:31

23. sgodsell (Posts: 5057; Member since: 16 Mar 2013)


Oh yeah, Apple should just buy Samsung's OLED display manufacturing, right. It's not like Apple can't afford to buy their manufacturing, right? Also Apple also needs to buy Samsungs memory chip manufacturing so they can make their own LPDDR4x ram, and while Apple is at it, they could also buy Samsung's storage chips used in iPhone's as well. Hell why doesn't Apple buy Qualcomm as well so Apple doesn't have to fight with or pay Qualcomm for it's LTE modems. I mean why doesn't Apple just do that, right jacky899?

Come on. If it was that easy don't you think they would have done that by now.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 17:42

25. Jolliebee (banned) (Posts: 39; Member since: 12 Sep 2017)


It is that easy.

But more overhead means mess profits.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 20:45

32. roscuthiii (Posts: 2266; Member since: 18 Jul 2010)


It's not that easy. Go look up the term "enterprise value".

Regardless of Apple's market cap, and their cash horde... Samsung's enterprise value is so vast... One simply does not buy out Samsung.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:19 10

2. LebronJamesFanboy (Posts: 660; Member since: 23 Mar 2013)


Everyone here knows I'm a huge Apple fan.

But the iPhone X looks like sh!t compared to Android's current flagships. Apple is dropping the ball, and Steve Jobs is turning in his grave.

+ Performance
+ Bezel Reductions
+ Camera / Camera Software Improvements

- Looks very ugly
- Notch
- Side Bezels too thick
- No TouchID
- No 3.5mm headphone jack
- No Home button
- Control Center and notification center access is a mess

Very sad time to be an Apple fan. S7E will remain my current driver for a while.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:34 2

4. kiko007 (Posts: 5733; Member since: 17 Feb 2016)


I agree that it isn't very pleasing to look at. Something about the notch just irks my nerves, might be OCD, but I'm not a fan.

However, that performance is going to be legit better than any phone... ever. Hopefully the camera is at least as good as the S8, but I'm an internal specs guy through and through.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:37 1

5. tedkord (Posts: 14726; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


I don't mind the notch, so long as it isn't highlighted by the screen in the ears being light colored, or when video plays around it. Then it's obtrusive. It looks better than the notch in the essential phone.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:40 4

9. bobby84 (Posts: 547; Member since: 13 May 2016)


Someone point out it looks like a traffic light

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:45

11. kiko007 (Posts: 5733; Member since: 17 Feb 2016)


This notch, or the Essential one?

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 16:16 4

16. MrShazam (Posts: 462; Member since: 22 Jun 2017)


Think they were referring to the camera at the back, not the notch.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 16:57 9

19. darkkjedii (Posts: 25633; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Banks said they're gonna remove the notch, and add TouchID, for the November launch.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 19:57

28. jeroome86 (Posts: 2202; Member since: 12 Apr 2012)


I hope Apple can find the courage to remove the notch. At least next years model anyways.

posted on 14 Sep 2017, 00:22 3

35. sissy246 (Posts: 4223; Member since: 04 Mar 2015)


LMAO
Yeah, well it was 100% going to have under the screen FPS also, lol

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 16:34

17. twens (Posts: 1099; Member since: 25 Feb 2012)


I don’t think the design is bad. Personally I think the galaxies look better especially the note 8 with its business look but I still find the iPhone X sexy. I just wish Apple had added a practical feature to make use of all that processing power. Let’s face it, most of the new features are all gimmick. They’re not something we would be using all the time. Most people will do is try out for a while then forget its even there just like Live Photo’s.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 17:24

21. tedkord (Posts: 14726; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


It looks better than the last several years of iPhones. It's a good looking phone, but the notch needs to match the ears at all times, and not jut out into videos, etc... That's where it looks bad.

posted on 14 Sep 2017, 00:42

38. P-YWS (Posts: 103; Member since: 12 Aug 2011)


You find the black eyebrow/forehead on the front display sexy, don't you? Also, you wouldn't find that part of the display on right/left hand side blackened annoying when you are watch movies/video, would you?

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 20:13

29. ColinW (Posts: 273; Member since: 04 Jun 2014)


Did you look at everyone using iPhones after the keynote? There was absolutely no noticeable speed or extra smoothness in scrolling to previous iPhones and certainly no faster or smoother than the phones I have, which are not iPhones. Do you not realise that all these "internal specs" are just marketing gimmicks Apple uses to cover up for its lack of specs elsewhere and design failings.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 17:46

26. Jolliebee (banned) (Posts: 39; Member since: 12 Sep 2017)


Wow. I am so amaze youre actually speaking against the iPhone X.

I've read you criticize Samsung phones like you hate them, yet you own one. Which is perfectly OK.

But never seen you mentioned you owned a Galaxy.

Curious as to why you would ever look at an iPhone when you have an S?

Why not the Note 8?

When you consider both are expensive, which one really gives more value?

I didnt like the S7 at all but loved the S6 edge.

The Note id it. Once you go Nite and you go back to an S, whether you use the SPen or not, the S won't feel the same.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 21:38 2

33. BlackhawkFlys (Posts: 653; Member since: 07 May 2014)


I hate Apple from the core of my heart... But this iPhone X looks cool... LG V30 looks better but the iPhone X looks good in its own way.. the camera position at the top of the display while weird looks unique and cool. The gesture controls are great to have... I have always loved gestures, be it WebOS or BB10...

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:34 2

3. quintessential (Posts: 78; Member since: 11 Mar 2015)


Frankly, there's nothing really phenomenal with the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus that's compelling enough to make customers want to get it this year over the competition. It's like Toyota trying to sell you its 4th-generation car model that looks exactly similar like it's 1st, with solid improvements under the hood and chasis - But comeon' its like the 4th generation model already. The competition around you has moved on with better design and comparable specs!

Apple is simply overconfident this time round. The iPhone 8 and 8 plus would do better if the design had taken a different outlook, e.g. shrinking the bezels even by 10% or 20%, or making it more compact. Right now, it's simply pushing more consumers to take up the Samsung Galaxy S8 models, which are cheaper now, and more attractive.

The iPhone X's price too is gonna push consumers towards the Samsung Note 8, which now appears better value for lesser money. As such, I don't think Apple will enjoy great sales all the way till 2018.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 15:39

8. kiko007 (Posts: 5733; Member since: 17 Feb 2016)


"The iPhone X's price too is gonna push consumers towards the Samsung Note 8, which now appears better value for lesser money."

You are VASTLY overestimating the appeal of the Note 8 to iOS users. There are very few people looking to move away from iOS; something like 2% of users switch annually. If they already have an iPhone, they'll keep it until one they wants becomes more accessible. The same happens every year, and I don't see that changing in this particular cycle.

posted on 13 Sep 2017, 20:19

30. ColinW (Posts: 273; Member since: 04 Jun 2014)


I agree there are many users tied to iPhones by familiarity with the OS, ecosystem or because they can pay monthly. Where Apple is losing customers, as is clearly shown by Apples falling market share in a growing market, is those new buyers coming into the market, especially in the growth areas in Asia where paying monthly is often not an option.

posted on 14 Sep 2017, 01:49

39. Xilam (Posts: 244; Member since: 20 Jul 2017)


Man, very fair points. I'm 100% with you.

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