Analyst says Apple iPhone 8/8 Plus sales will suffer in fiscal Q4 and rebound in the next period

Analyst says Apple iPhone 8/8 Plus sales will suffer in fiscal Q4 and rebound in the next period
While some analysts see the delay in the launch of the Apple iPhone X helping to generate quick sales for the Apple iPhone 8 and Apple iPhone 8 Plus, not all agree. Daniel Gleason, the senior analyst at Ovum, said that there are two types of iPhone buyers. Those who have to have the latest phone will be put off by the November 3rd launch date for the tenth anniversary model. Those who would be satisfied with the iPhone 8 or iPhone 8 Plus won't be rushing to pick up either model right away. As a result, Gleason expects those belonging to the latter group, waiting to check out the iPhone X before deciding which model to buy.

As a result, Gleason sees Apple's fiscal fourth quarter results negatively impacted by the late arrival of the anniversary edition. Normally, the launch of the new iPhone models every year has been a positive for Apple during the end of its fiscal fourth quarter in September. But if enough potential iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus buyers decide to check out the iPhone X first before making a purchase, Apple will probably report lower fiscal fourth quarter revenue than it normally might have.

Gleason says that with the September 22nd launch of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, Apple will have eight days of sales to report for the fiscal fourth quarter. Normally, that would result in between 10 million and 12 million iPhone handsets getting sold during that period. But with some buyers waiting first to see what the iPhone X offers, the analyst sees Apple recording half the sales of new iPhone models for the quarter than it usually does. 


Another issue affecting fiscal Q4 sales of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus is that next year, the sequel to these two handsets ( most likely called the Apple iPhone 8s and Apple iPhone 8s Plus) will each reportedly feature an OLED screen. According to Abhey Lamba, managing director of Americas research at Mizuho, this could lead some consumers to hold off on purchasing one of the two standard iPhone models for another year


The good news for Apple is that in the following quarter (fiscal Q1 of 2018), the delayed sales could get booked, giving Apple a better than usual kick off to fiscal year 2018. Analysts see the tech titan posting fiscal Q1 revenue of $86.8 billion, up from last year's $78.4 billion.

source: CNBC

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40 Comments

31. ColinW

Posts: 413; Member since: Jun 04, 2014

I agree there are many users tied to iPhones by familiarity with the OS, ecosystem or because they can pay monthly. Where Apple is losing customers, as is clearly shown by Apples falling market share in a growing market, is those new buyers coming into the market, especially in the growth areas in Asia where paying monthly is often not an option.

20. darkkjedii

Posts: 31796; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Every time I look at the X, the screen looks like a tempered glass screen protector, on top of the actual screen. Screen, border, then bezel, looks odd. The vertical camera looks off as well, I prefer the horizontal one.

27. Jolliebee

Posts: 39; Member since: Sep 12, 2017

I think vertical would have l9oked cool if it was centralized. But having a bump on the side is just dumb and makes the phone wobble oddly.

36. sissy246

Posts: 7129; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Agree about the camera, I like it the other way also. The camera bump looks bigger also. It is a ok looking phone and would have looked a lot better to me if they would have just put a black bar across the front.

40. darkkjedii

Posts: 31796; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Right, that indentation looks ugly.

18. twens

Posts: 1190; Member since: Feb 25, 2012

Apple will be fine. If you want iOS plus a full screen experience iPhone X is your only option. People just need to wait for the prices to drop and get one. Simple as that.

12. abdoualgeria

Posts: 928; Member since: Jul 27, 2015

Why apple quarter is ahead of normal quarter ... Normally october - December is q4 why apple call it q1 ?

22. tedkord

Posts: 17517; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

It's their fiscal year. Companies can label their fiscal calendar in any order they like.

7. tedkord

Posts: 17517; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I'm pretty sure they'll make enough to survive.

14. aegislash

Posts: 1538; Member since: Jan 27, 2015

Exactly. This isn't HTC we're talking about. A single quarter of low revenue will be like lost pocket change to Apple. Heck...an entire year of low revenue probably would not affect them in the slightest.

3. quintessential

Posts: 86; Member since: Mar 11, 2015

Frankly, there's nothing really phenomenal with the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus that's compelling enough to make customers want to get it this year over the competition. It's like Toyota trying to sell you its 4th-generation car model that looks exactly similar like it's 1st, with solid improvements under the hood and chasis - But comeon' its like the 4th generation model already. The competition around you has moved on with better design and comparable specs! Apple is simply overconfident this time round. The iPhone 8 and 8 plus would do better if the design had taken a different outlook, e.g. shrinking the bezels even by 10% or 20%, or making it more compact. Right now, it's simply pushing more consumers to take up the Samsung Galaxy S8 models, which are cheaper now, and more attractive. The iPhone X's price too is gonna push consumers towards the Samsung Note 8, which now appears better value for lesser money. As such, I don't think Apple will enjoy great sales all the way till 2018.

8. kiko007

Posts: 7525; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

"The iPhone X's price too is gonna push consumers towards the Samsung Note 8, which now appears better value for lesser money." You are VASTLY overestimating the appeal of the Note 8 to iOS users. There are very few people looking to move away from iOS; something like 2% of users switch annually. If they already have an iPhone, they'll keep it until one they wants becomes more accessible. The same happens every year, and I don't see that changing in this particular cycle.

30. ColinW

Posts: 413; Member since: Jun 04, 2014

I agree there are many users tied to iPhones by familiarity with the OS, ecosystem or because they can pay monthly. Where Apple is losing customers, as is clearly shown by Apples falling market share in a growing market, is those new buyers coming into the market, especially in the growth areas in Asia where paying monthly is often not an option.

39. Xilam unregistered

Man, very fair points. I'm 100% with you.

2. LebronJamesFanboy

Posts: 671; Member since: Mar 23, 2013

Everyone here knows I'm a huge Apple fan. But the iPhone X looks like sh!t compared to Android's current flagships. Apple is dropping the ball, and Steve Jobs is turning in his grave. + Performance + Bezel Reductions + Camera / Camera Software Improvements - Looks very ugly - Notch - Side Bezels too thick - No TouchID - No 3.5mm headphone jack - No Home button - Control Center and notification center access is a mess Very sad time to be an Apple fan. S7E will remain my current driver for a while.

4. kiko007

Posts: 7525; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

I agree that it isn't very pleasing to look at. Something about the notch just irks my nerves, might be OCD, but I'm not a fan. However, that performance is going to be legit better than any phone... ever. Hopefully the camera is at least as good as the S8, but I'm an internal specs guy through and through.

5. tedkord

Posts: 17517; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

I don't mind the notch, so long as it isn't highlighted by the screen in the ears being light colored, or when video plays around it. Then it's obtrusive. It looks better than the notch in the essential phone.

9. bobby84

Posts: 595; Member since: May 13, 2016

Someone point out it looks like a traffic light

11. kiko007

Posts: 7525; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

This notch, or the Essential one?

16. MrShazam

Posts: 987; Member since: Jun 22, 2017

Think they were referring to the camera at the back, not the notch.

19. darkkjedii

Posts: 31796; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Banks said they're gonna remove the notch, and add TouchID, for the November launch.

28. jeroome86

Posts: 2314; Member since: Apr 12, 2012

I hope Apple can find the courage to remove the notch. At least next years model anyways.

35. sissy246

Posts: 7129; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

LMAO Yeah, well it was 100% going to have under the screen FPS also, lol

17. twens

Posts: 1190; Member since: Feb 25, 2012

I don’t think the design is bad. Personally I think the galaxies look better especially the note 8 with its business look but I still find the iPhone X sexy. I just wish Apple had added a practical feature to make use of all that processing power. Let’s face it, most of the new features are all gimmick. They’re not something we would be using all the time. Most people will do is try out for a while then forget its even there just like Live Photo’s.

21. tedkord

Posts: 17517; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

It looks better than the last several years of iPhones. It's a good looking phone, but the notch needs to match the ears at all times, and not jut out into videos, etc... That's where it looks bad.

38. P-YWS

Posts: 151; Member since: Aug 12, 2011

You find the black eyebrow/forehead on the front display sexy, don't you? Also, you wouldn't find that part of the display on right/left hand side blackened annoying when you are watch movies/video, would you?

29. ColinW

Posts: 413; Member since: Jun 04, 2014

Did you look at everyone using iPhones after the keynote? There was absolutely no noticeable speed or extra smoothness in scrolling to previous iPhones and certainly no faster or smoother than the phones I have, which are not iPhones. Do you not realise that all these "internal specs" are just marketing gimmicks Apple uses to cover up for its lack of specs elsewhere and design failings.

26. Jolliebee

Posts: 39; Member since: Sep 12, 2017

Wow. I am so amaze youre actually speaking against the iPhone X. I've read you criticize Samsung phones like you hate them, yet you own one. Which is perfectly OK. But never seen you mentioned you owned a Galaxy. Curious as to why you would ever look at an iPhone when you have an S? Why not the Note 8? When you consider both are expensive, which one really gives more value? I didnt like the S7 at all but loved the S6 edge. The Note id it. Once you go Nite and you go back to an S, whether you use the SPen or not, the S won't feel the same.

33. BlackhawkFlys

Posts: 932; Member since: May 07, 2014

I hate Apple from the core of my heart... But this iPhone X looks cool... LG V30 looks better but the iPhone X looks good in its own way.. the camera position at the top of the display while weird looks unique and cool. The gesture controls are great to have... I have always loved gestures, be it WebOS or BB10...

1. kiko007

Posts: 7525; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Delays messing with money flow? Shareholders aren't gonna like that, at all. Apple REALLY should work on acquiring factories and equipment so they can build at least a fraction of their merchandise. Sadly, that's not going to happen anytime soon.

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