Analyst: Apple iPhone will peak with 68% of the U.S. smartphone market
Predicting the future is a dicey game. Some will do analysis for hours, while others are content to shake up the ol' magic 8 ball and get an answer from that. And when the subject matter you are trying to predict is future sales of the Apple iPhone, you're dealing with a fluid industry that can change at the snap of a finger.
Industry analyst Horace Dediu from Asymco wanted to try to figure out what percentage of the U.S. smartphone market the Apple iPhone will have captured when it peaks. The peak will probably take place when everyone who wants an iPhone has purchased one. Replacement sales will be leading the way and the number of new iPhone buyers will be growing more slowly.
Using a mathematical formula that we can't even pretend to understand, Dediu computes that the Apple iPhone will reach 90% penetration of the U.S.market (which is considered saturation) when 68% of the U.S. population sports one. The analyst sees this taking place in February 2017, so be prepared. At that time, Dediu sees 180 million Americans with an iPhone in their pocket or purse.
source: Asymco via Forbes
"We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017."-Horace Dediu, analyst, Asymco
Using a mathematical formula that we can't even pretend to understand, Dediu computes that the Apple iPhone will reach 90% penetration of the U.S.market (which is considered saturation) when 68% of the U.S. population sports one. The analyst sees this taking place in February 2017, so be prepared. At that time, Dediu sees 180 million Americans with an iPhone in their pocket or purse.
source: Asymco via Forbes
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