Analyst: Apple iPhone will peak with 68% of the U.S. smartphone market

Analyst: Apple iPhone will peak with 68% of the U.S. smartphone market
Predicting the future is a dicey game. Some will do analysis for hours, while others are content to shake up the ol' magic 8 ball and get an answer from that. And when the subject matter you are trying to predict is future sales of the Apple iPhone, you're dealing with a fluid industry that can change at the snap of a finger.

Industry analyst Horace Dediu from Asymco wanted to try to figure out what percentage of the U.S. smartphone market the Apple iPhone will have captured when it peaks. The peak will probably take place when everyone who wants an iPhone has purchased one. Replacement sales will be leading the way and the number of new iPhone buyers will be growing more slowly.


Using a mathematical formula that we can't even pretend to understand, Dediu computes that the Apple iPhone will reach 90% penetration of the U.S.market (which is considered saturation) when 68% of the U.S. population sports one. The analyst sees this taking place in February 2017, so be prepared. At that time, Dediu sees 180 million Americans with an iPhone in their pocket or purse.


source: Asymco via Forbes

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58 Comments

56. profperez1

Posts: 76; Member since: May 08, 2012

As people begin to pay for their phones directly---as the trend is starting----this is going to have an impact. Over the next 10 years people are going to buy and sell phones and figure out quickly that iOS holds it's value more. I think the cost of ownership will become hyper important in the equation. Nobody is thinking about it now. I used an iPhone 4 for a year and sold it for $5 more than I paid for it. My Androids loose value fast. My family uses Facetime so I am stuck with iOS.

57. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

That scenario doesnt apply for cars and other high value things. Luxury cars dont sell as well as budget, mid range cars. Lets say ppl start buying more phones directly....wouldnt cost play more of a role than holding its value? Remember....many ppl claim Android's huge market share lead is due to cheap phones. So how is that all of a sudden gonna get reversed and ppl start buying more expensive phones? The only way I see Apple getting 68% of the market is if Apple lowered the cost of the iPhone dramatically. Not their 2-3 year old models like they do now...but new versions.

54. Andrewtst

Posts: 697; Member since: Jan 25, 2009

The predictor is fail and prediction is fail to end.

45. ibap

Posts: 873; Member since: Sep 09, 2009

Given the speed with which things change in the cellphone market, does this guy really think he can see out 3 years? He's betting that if he's right, he can point to it three years from now and point out how clever he was, and if he's wrong, he'll just keep his mouth shut and hope no one remembers. Or he owns a ton of Apple stock. Disclosure, please? And we need a Tim Russert to keep these guys accountable.

42. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

Who cares what the market share of iOS or Android are, or will be years from now? As long as I keep getting sweet Android phones I'm happy. I miss the days of Android being the scrappy underdog. These days Android or its manufacturers consistently break different records and hold different titles. Watching Apple and Google go at it is like watching the two best teams play; go to bat and hit home run after home run after home run. Also I'm sure iOS will win in the long run. There are tons of computer illiterate people in the USA and as they get frustrated with Android they'll flock to the simple OS. The one with limited options and customizability. This is the natural progression of idiocracy. "iPhone it's what plants crave."

48. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Yea...I miss when Android was the underdog too. I'm glad it got better, but now they are where Apple was at ....with many wanting to knock them from the top. And...we must not forget...what goes up.....must come down. It happened to Apple somewhat by them dropping to 2nd place in market share. I would be happy if Android was a strong #2.

37. dorianb

Posts: 617; Member since: Oct 24, 2012

I'm guessing this article is assuming by the time Apple reaches 68% there will only be two OS's supported. So either Windows or Android will have to die for this to happen. I would throw Blackberry in there, but it's already in the death throws.

29. Planterz

Posts: 2120; Member since: Apr 30, 2012

I know far more people who have switched from iOS to Android than vice versa. In fact, I know NOBODY who has swtiched TO iOS, yet I know many that have switched from iOS to Android. Main complaints are iTunes, small screens, and cost. To be fair, I also know many that have stuck with iOS, and I understand the reasons for that. But none own a 5S or 5C, and only one or two even own a 5. Most have a 4 or 4S. In my demographic (lower middle class, a significant portion), the prevailing wind comes from Android, not Apple. I see people with Androids. I see them with Galaxy S2s. I see them with Galaxy S2s that have been rooted to give them powers that Apple or non-rooted Androids give. I see them with low-end Androids because Apple doesn't offer anything even remotely affordable off-contract. If I were to give a wild, jerkoff prediction like this so-called "analyist", I'd predict that the Moto G will outsell whatever the lowest-end iPhone selling today is. A couple hundred bucks vs several hundreds. Apple's business model of milking their fans of every penny they can has worked for them so far, and will continue to work in the future. But for every customer they turn off or piss off, Android will gain another. For every iDiot that pays $100+ for a 16mb upgrade, there'll be several that buy a phone/tablet with a microSD slot who realizes that a 32gb card costs $15.

41. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

Don't worry, Apple doesn't care about people who cannot afford its products. However, Apple does care about its (ex)customers very much, much more than potential customers which is really great. Unlike all the Android OEMS, Apple can afford this kind of policy.

43. Doakie

Posts: 2478; Member since: May 06, 2009

I agree. I just left Sprint and switched to AT&T. I ended up selling 4 Android phones, three of the four were to people leaving iPhones for Android. Two were Galaxy S 3s and one was a Galaxy Note 2. I'm not really seeing anyone anymore leaving Android and going to iOS. That exodus happened when Verizon got the iPhone. All the people who were holding out due to the AT&T exclusivity jumped at that time. Now the exodus I've seen is away from the iPhone. But that's all anecdotal.

28. eldyagustius

Posts: 182; Member since: Oct 30, 2013

why are there so many news in a week about iOs devices sales growth? just remind that the wide world is not only about iPhone/iPad and United States.

22. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

The Apple fans should be getting scared by now. Once Apple plays the larger screen card, they have nothing left. The best they could do to freshen up IOS 6 was IOS 7. They are out if cards and can only go down after the iPhone 6.

24. ihavenoname

Posts: 1693; Member since: Aug 18, 2013

What are you talking about? Apple will be just fine.

25. darkkjedii

Posts: 31799; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Prove this utterly stupid theory. I'll also give you my phone number, so you can text me when apple stock hits zero, they hold their going outta business sale, and close and board up all their doors. Apples going outta business sale, slashing prices up to 90% off, buy one get two free. You're the worst type of apple hater... The stupid type, that never makes any sense.

34. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Makes perfect sense. Only Apple itard idiots like you don't get it. Just like everything in life, things get played out and nothing lasts. Apple is near it obviously because the best they could do is iOS 7 and maybe larger screen. They are running out of things to differentiate. Just like Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft, they are going to lose to someone else and soon. Most likely Google which still has a lot of cards to play. Especially according to itards that still think Android is laggy. Once it gets even more fluid than kit Kat already is, its game over. I repeat again. Common f**king sense, which you obviously lack. What do you think Apple is going to pull out of their hand after a larger screen? More touch ID and siri garbage but that's about it. While both Android and WP8 have tons of ceiling left. I apologize if that was too hard for you itards to follow.

38. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

What are you smoking? Google is the one who played all the cards while Apple still has tons left. Did you ever take a look at Android's SurfaceFlinger and SKIA? No wonder Android *requires* quadcore CPUs in order to airbrush its lags. (still existent though) The whole AOSP is nothing more than a collection of garbage codes moderated by Google.

39. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Lol you ifans are funny. Let's just say you are right. Then you effectively made my point. Quad cores and technology will eventually reach the point where even running emulators will be effortless and indistinguishable from non emulation. iOS is already at the point where they don't necessarily need more than 1gb of ram. You tell me which OS will benefit more from technological and hardware advances? It's not Apple and their OS with fake multitasking. Lol moron.

40. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

If you think A7 is much more expensive to produce than A6, you are dead wrong on this. The chip business doesn't work that way. And I don't understand what you are talking about. It's always better having more reserves. If a car needs a larger fuel tank due to its lackluster fuel efficiency, I don't see any (future) benefits in that. While Android *has to* dedicate half of its processing power / RAM to user interaction / frame buffer drawing, iOS can do the same for much less which means it doesn't have to throttle up the clock frequency that increases the power consumption *exponentially*. The Cortex A15 is the dead end for ARMv7. The Exynos fiasco demonstrated it pretty well. ARMv8 is due, and Android has TONS of problems adopting 64-bit computing. In fact, Google didn't want the 64-bit transition this early. Unlike iOS, Android hardly benefits from 64-bit computing : - Dalvik VM is a 32-bit machine. Even if the VM itself gets 64-bit ported, the emulated machine remains a 32-bit one. For example, even if you run a 64-bit version of SNES emulator on your x64 Windows, the emulated SNES remains a 16-bit machine. Nothing can change this. - NDK apps are even more problematic. Google's ADK lacks heavily in comparison to Apple's XCode supporting multiple architectures. It will take YEARS until you see any meaningful number of 64-bit NDK apps. The worst nightmare comes true while switching between 32-bit and 64-bit mode on ARMv8. Google the web for Pentium Pro and Itanium fiasco. Combine the reasons behind their failure, you get a picture of how it will look like on Android. Running a single 32-bit app on a 64-bit Android machine will drain the battery like crazy in addition to braking the whole system. NDK apps "have to" be 64-bit ported therefore, and there won't be many NDK devs willing to do this extra job due to Android's high level of fragmentation. What remains is a bunch of crappy Java apps, all those "Hello World" ones inclusive. How crappy? An NDK app running on GS1 will easily smoke a comparable SDK app running on GN3. Java sucks so bad. PS : who's a moron? Well, let the others decide.

50. Taters

Posts: 6474; Member since: Jan 28, 2013

Lol I didn't say the A7 was more expensive than the A6. Right there you proved how moronic you are with your really poor reading comprehension. All your tech talk doesn't change the facts. IOS 7 is pretty much as advanced as they are willing to go and it runs fine on 1gb of ram. Advances in hardware will not improve iOS 7 performance very much. The limits are in the software which Apple cannot change without completely chnagingntheir identity and then they would be just like Android, except without the experience of handling multiple hardware configurations or Dalvik VM. Android is already testing new things like ART that will benefit greatly from future hardware. Apple just won't grow unless they totally redesign IOS from the ground up. The A6 vs A7 performance is negligible at best and they don't even need a ram increase but the ICS to JB performance increase was HUGE. And the S800 + KIT KAT is pretty much the best performance wise I have seen and it can only go up with further in advancements in hardware. I owned the iPhone 5 and 5s for work and my 5s stutters and the iPhone 5 and my personal Nexus 5 don't. And like you said, the Nexus 5 software is s**t but the S800 just brute powers it. IOS doesn't need to be brute powered because it's already close to it's peak. Therefore it is just downhill from here. Common sense buddy. Learn to use it. Dumb ass.lol

53. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

You want to be spoon fed? I suggest you ask your mom. I'm giving you so many information but you seem to be incapable of deducting anything. Stay a moron and die a moron.

47. darkkjedii

Posts: 31799; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Awww him mad

20. JerryTime

Posts: 468; Member since: Nov 09, 2013

Maybe "we can't comprehend the mathematical equation" because it makes 0 sense with the trend of Apple losing market share consistently and then suddenly gaining 30% back.

18. rusticguy

Posts: 2828; Member since: Aug 11, 2012

This is quite low. Infact in US it should be around 98% by 2015 ... anything below that is an insult if it cannot achieve with all the home court support, President of a nation using VETO powers for Apple etc. It's another story that despite this "Huge Lead" over Android, the President of America still isn;t allowed to use iPhone despite Apple gifting iPads to family :)

36. JakeLee

Posts: 1021; Member since: Nov 02, 2013

May I remind you that Sammy lost against Apple at its "home court"? You US people may not be very satisfied with it, but the US Judiciary is among the best in the world. I really envy you.

11. donfem

Posts: 708; Member since: Mar 30, 2011

Paid commercial once again

13. woodshop20

Posts: 459; Member since: Sep 14, 2013

Close. Hate bait article once again.

8. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

I meant to say before time ran out...lol iPhone launches in 2007, becomes #1 in market share in 2010. Android launches in 2008, and in 5 years has a huge market share lead vs the iPhone, jumped past the iPhone in 2011 for #1 in marketshare and has stayed #1 for the past 2 years... How has it not peaked?

6. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

Wait a min...it hasnt peaked yet? I thought it already has. Year after year iPhones set sales records from previous years.....every year since it launched. iPhone was #1 in market share in 2008Android launches in 2008 and in 5 years has a huge market share lead vs the iPhone, jumped past the iPhone in 2010. How has it not peaked yet?

1. Sniggly

Posts: 7305; Member since: Dec 05, 2009

Except he forgets that worldwide and in the US, there is absolutely zero reason to think that Apple will nearly double its current market share.

2. darkkjedii

Posts: 31799; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Yeah zero reason to a hater like you. You meet any apple news with hate, and negativity dude, and for what? Do you honestly think your influencing people with this constant nagging on apple, or changing anyone's mind lol?

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