Verizon branded Apple iPhone to be introduced just after CES; what will happen to AT&T?
The question is, what will be the effect on AT&T. Some analysts predict that the cost and hassle of switching carriers mid-contract will not be worth it. Some believe that the prediction of droves of AT&T customers switching to Verizon is way off base. Charles S. Golvin, who works for Forrester Research says, "I'm sure some AT&T customers are sufficiently frustrated to switch, but the vast majority are at least happy enough." UBS analyst John Hodulik predicts that AT&T will sell 8.8 million Apple iPhones in 2011, down from 15.6 million units sold this year. He also estimates that Verizon will sell 13.3 million iPhones next year. He breaks that figure down by saying that 2.3 million of the Verizon sales will come from AT&T customers making the switch. About 10 million will be Verizon customers switching from another platform, and the balance will be from those leaving other mobile operators.
The damage to AT&T's financials might not be as deadly as some think. The carrier is not going to go under if it loses exclusivity on the Apple iPhone. Even if 6 million customers defect, the revenue would amount to just 10% of the estimated 2011 revenue for AT&T wireless, according to UBS. That also amounts to just 4.8% of the entire company's 2011 sales.
Bloomberg Businessweek says that AT&T is not just going to be sitting back, crying about the lost revenue. The carrier plans on pushing alternatives to the Apple iPhone such as handsets loaded with the Android OS says former Verizon executive Mark Lowenstein, now a managing director of consulting firm Mobile Ecosystem. So far, of the nation's top four carriers, AT&T has embraced Android the least although it has been strongly pushing handsets using the new Windows Phone 7 OS. The jury is still out on how successful that platform will be.
And what about the other half of the the nation's top four carriers? Bloomberg says that there are no plans for either Sprint or T-Mobile to introduce their own iPhone which leads UBS analyst Hodulik to predict that Sprint could lose 650,000 customers while T-Mobile could be 950,000 customers lighter in 2011 as a result of the Verizon branded device.
1. networkdood (Posts: 6330; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
It will be funny when it does not happen.....
4. allboutverizon (Posts: 66; Member since: 20 May 2009)
I actually kinda don't won't it to happen. I'm happy with the Droid family of phones available with VZW. I also think Verizon has well proved that they doesn't need the Iphone to survive. Now AT&T on the other hand would be hurt if the Big Red got the phone. I don't say that as a fanboy but as just general financial perspective.
15. narley (Posts: 357; Member since: 14 May 2009)
you guys are encourageable......
so it was christmas... then it was just after christmas... then it was jan 2010, now its just before Valentines Day...
you know what you could do... report REAL news.
you guys are like the tabloids of the cell phone industry.
22. JeffdaBeat (unregistered)
Actually, that's not true. PhoneArena never reports rumors as news. They always report rumors as rumors and site exactly who said it. In this story, they are simply reporting what a new agency as said. In no way did PhoneArena say this is absolutely true and going to happen. Hell, half of the time they will begrugeonly say, "Here's yet another iPhone rumor..." which they don't HAVE to report on, but if it's a different rumor, they put it out there. Again, not reporting it as fact.
PhoneScoop is a website that only reports news and news only. They've only reported on a rumor when some of the bigger organizations (like one featured in this story) went on record to say a Verizon iPhone was going to be launched in 2011. If you're looking for actual news, that's a good site. But PhoneArena will give you news, rumors, and all kinds of other tidbits of information.
52. Just here (unregistered)
I agree until it's on Verizon's website i'll believe it
21. JeffdaBeat (unregistered)
I still wonder why Apple would choose the slowest quarter to debut the most anticipated phone on the market: Verizon iPhone. Not because people won't buy it, but because of two things. First, a lot of people have already resigned their contracts for the holiday season, whether it is AT&T or Verizon. On Verizon's side, they will lose money for the people who exchange their phones for an iPhone if they are within their 30-day exchange/return. I know when I worked for Sprint, they said it costs the company $170 per handset that comes back and exchanged for another. And then, what about the people that can't exchange? And for the AT&T side of things, folks have that huge ETF of $325. Even for folks who resigned back in June would still pay about $250 to get out of the contract and still have to buy a new phone on top of that.
I mean, no one is perfect, but it just doesn't seem like a smart move. Plus, if Apple waited until June to sell the iPhone, they'd at least give folks on AT&T a few more months to get the ETF down.
But all signs point to this year being the year. I think every major paper organization has reported this as truth and newspapers aren't as likely to print something untrue as television journalists or bloggers are. A lot of those papers and wired services would have to make massive apologies for basically misinforming the public. Also, AT&T's hike in ETF could be a sign that this is the last year...but there was also a little problem of people buying iPhones with the $400 discount, selling them, and paying a $175 ETF. It was time for AT&T to update the ETF years before they actually did it. And I'm sure the heat Verizon took for upping theirs didn't help matters at all.
I guess we will see. I don't think we will see the mass exodus that people are expecting if Verizon gets the iPhone. But I am also not convinced of the early timing of the Verizon iPhone's debut. Either way, I think it's good for iPhone users. Think about it, more iPhone users mean even more apps. That's what I am excited about.
31. mendonorcal8380 (unregistered)
I think apple waited due to the fact that no matter when they do or do not decide to release this device it will be a hot ticket item. So time of year really has nothing to do with it.
42. TKFox007 (Posts: 303; Member since: 02 Nov 2010)
They would choose the slowest quarter as that would generate more sales during the slow period.
53. JeffdaBeat (unregistered)
That would make sense if you took away the fact that everyone is on contracts. If contacts are renewed (which is what I said), you're asking people to then pay full price for the iPhone.
55. remixfa. (unregistered)
lol, if one of these analists actually got anything right, theyd be millionaires from betting stock futures.
i seriously doubt 1 million people are going to leave tmobile to go to VZW for a phone and pay that much more. If they wanted to do that, they would have went to ATT already. Same with sprint. If anything, you might see some people leaving ATT for sprint/tmobile because theyve moved on from the iphone and want android for less.
2. jimmy658 (unregistered)
AS long as Spint is gaining customers slowly or losing just a small number at a time they will keep prices low and customer service high so I don't see this as a bad thing for Sprint.
3. networkdood (Posts: 6330; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
AT&T will be fine...maybe a few million customer less, but, more 3G data for me....
5. networkdood (Posts: 6330; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
Sprint is spending money like it is going out of style....let's hope they do not sink....
6. anynonomous23 (unregistered)
Not going to happen!!! VZW is not getting the iphone...goodness give it up already they have been saying it since 2007
59. jd829 (Posts: 155; Member since: 24 Feb 2010)
yeah, but this time they really really mean it
7. skymitch89 (Posts: 1223; Member since: 05 Nov 2010)
What happened to "right after Christmas"?
8. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)
I'm sticking with At&t eventhough I think Verizon offers better signals. Reason is, I use my iphone's internet a lot, and At&t's 3g internet is the fastest one right now. Also, I have an unlimited data plan with At&t which I do not want to lose. I will only switch if Verizon's iphone offers faster internet and unlimited data plan, and of course competitive rates.
19. Daryl209 (Posts: 18; Member since: 27 Jul 2010)
Well....if the Verizon iPhone happens to be LTE, which would be stupid if it wasn't, that gives AT&T no leg to stand on anymore.
I really hope AT&T gets knocked down a peg.
24. overratediphone (Posts: 26; Member since: 09 Sep 2009)
they can't really go down many more pegs without turning into T-Mobile lol
34. yo uncle (unregistered)
what? Verizon does have unlimited data plans. $30 per month for unlimited data same as the iphone for AT&T. Their rates are very very similar in price. Even on non-smartphones..AT&T the fastest? Wow where are you? You must be in that one spot in your house where you actually get it! LOL
43. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)
I haven't heard of verizon's unlimited data plan. Also, I was referring to at&t's 3g network being the fastest right now. Key word "3g". But if verizon does release an LTE iphone with unlimited data plan, I might jump ship and leave at&t for verizon.
9. 4ghomie (unregistered)
Every month the date changed since the iPhone came out. It's just a running gag now
10. jenna_23 (Posts: 145; Member since: 02 Apr 2010)
i dont see why it cant happen if mexico is gettin one mexican carrier iusacell is a cdma carrier and on there website it says iphone 4 muy pronto (iphone 4coming soon) look it up if u dnt believe me . That iusacell company is cdma because they have all the same phones verizon has here in the states even if u click on the coverage map it clearly shows all the cdma evdo coverage tru out mexico no gsm coverage at all ... So yea thats why i think its possible that verizon cud get an iphone if mexico is gunna get one why not us?
37. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
@jenna_23 b/c this almighty contract that no one knows about exactly except At&t and Apple applies to the states only. Vodafone which is the parent company to Verizon Wireless has carried the iPhone 3GS for months. Not sure if they have the iP4 but the exclusivity is US-only.
46. Gawain (Posts: 405; Member since: 15 Apr 2010)
Vodafone is a minority holder of VZW (45%), Verizon Communications (the phone company has 55% and is the active controlling interest, Vodafone doesn't even draw much of a dividend).
To your main point though, I think you are spot on: If the Apple/AT&T contract is four years, then that would mean June 2011 (assuming both parties stick to terms). If it's a five year contract (which seems plausible to me), then we're talking 2012 at the earliest, at which point the Mayan calendar will be in full swing and VZW would only have it for six months anyway, and then the end of the world...unless there's an app to stop that... ;-P
48. fanboykiller (unregistered)
Jenna Iusacell is launching 3GSM network in Mexico, Iphone is not coming on CDMA apple wont waste time in a tech that is phasing out....!!!!!
11. hawk62 (Posts: 320; Member since: 21 Nov 2009)
Right after xmas, tomorrow, last week, before V-day, omg. It sounds like where i work. They dont say what year so they are right. Right after xmas 2011 pr 2020 whatever. I dont believe it anymore. Verizon is about as controlling as apple. The 2 will not get alone. Right now vz is making a killing on ipad since there are charging 3g price for a wifi ipad. But i doubt vz will get an iphone anythime soon.
28. DP (unregistered)
Verizon doesnt set the price for iPads, Apple does. It's the same price everywhere
38. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
is Verizon making a killing? when did they start making iPads or any device for that matter?
39. afireinside0016 (Posts: 2; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)
are you retarded? they sell them for the same price as everyone because apple names their price. they have a bundle thats the exact same price as the 3g at&t version, except verizons is faster and will actually get service. and the mifi lets you connect up to 4 other devices at the same time.
12. obamabinladin (Posts: 13; Member since: 23 Nov 2010)
this is bullshit they have been saying this since 2007, at&t and apple have a contract until 2012. Verizon would be a monopoly if they got the iPhone and business's don't want to see that. Verizon won't get it because the supply and demand won't match the reason apple went to at&t is because there GSM and they didnt have alot of costumers and wanted to make an impact. If the iPhone goes to Verizon it would destroy the inferstructure of Blackberry and Motorola's Droid. The droid is a big hit for Verizon and Motorola would have just wasted Billions of $ for no reason and you wouldn't hear the name Motorola anymore. what about the ad's against the iPhone from Verizon lets not forget. Apple and at&t both attacked Verizon for those ad's. if the iPhone goes to any CDMA carrier in the USA it would go to Sprint because like at&t in the past they didn't have a alot of costumers and apple wants to be the big impact guy because they will make $ out of it. everything is about money in the world. do you really think at&t who made millions off the iPhone as it's cash crop will give it a way? this is not a biased opinion it's a realistic and business point of view.
40. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
When's the last time you seen Verizon attacking the iPhone? It hasn't been since the very beginning of the antenna issue which was (seems like) ages ago. Ever since then their attacks have been directed towards At&t as a Wireless company. If this is business my guess is that Verizon is about business as well and its not up to them to worry about if Motorola or Blackberry will be able to tread water...that's on those manufacturer's to remain relevant. Now we all know there are several customers on the Verizon network that are envious of the iPhone (from what I can tell they are envious of the hype) and can't wait but there are just as many that aren't moved by the phone at all. That's the beauty of having the iPhone on the Verizon network, variety. From webOs to WP7 to have all of those platforms on one network offering is a smart business decision (with the exception of Symbian which is failing miserably anyway). In this day and age its safe to safe to say mobile technology is breaking all kinds of barriers.
60. jd829 (Posts: 155; Member since: 24 Feb 2010)
Well until vzw gets it, at&t is the only carrier to offer every OS, including symbian as horrible as I think it is. Pretty sure at&t will be just fine without iphone exclusivity.
68. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
that's true...they do have every OS but the unfortunate thing about At&t is that no one ever searches them out for service. iPhone is the only reason for consumers interest in their service. their Android line up is not that great WP7 is new to the game and iOs is the only upper hand that they have on everyone else. now where i dont think the loss of exclusivity isnt going to make or break them i think it will be damaging.
13. Fallout (Posts: 20; Member since: 22 Apr 2010)
At&t is the 2nd biggest telco in the world. I think they'll be fine
16. Daryl209 (Posts: 18; Member since: 27 Jul 2010)
I really hope this finally happens. I have neither service, but I really hope AT&T see's this as a wake up call and does something about their network
17. Kblakeshot (Posts: 10; Member since: 05 Jan 2010)
Will all you dumbfukks saying Verizon is not getting the iPhone SHUT UP! If you seriously think the iPhone will not be on Verizon within the next 3 months your an IDOITS. Quit the whining! Geez
27. a3k (unregistered)
18. jaabubby (Posts: 38; Member since: 16 Jan 2010)
I have the DX and see no reason to switch to the iPhone. It works very well for me. Looking forward to the Droid Thunderbolt!! More and more rumors will come out since CES is right around the corner. Competition is good. The consumer will win in the longrun.
41. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
I'm with you there...I've been waiting on a 4.3" full touch HTC device. Love the Sense IU and HTC in general. I'm Thunderboltin it, iPhone who?
20. overratediphone (Posts: 26; Member since: 09 Sep 2009)
my friends cousins boyfriend used to housesit for someone that lived next door to someone who worked as a janitor in a building down the street from apple headquarters and he said that Verizon is getting the iphone 2 days and 3 hours after Columbus day sometime possibly within the next few years ... maybe
23. afune1 (unregistered)
Who cares if Verizon gets the Iphone. It will be only the 4th or 5th best device they carry.My Droid X blows it away in every measurable way. The Sheep that follow madison ave to decide what to buy can have the thing
26. hawk62 (Posts: 320; Member since: 21 Nov 2009)
no it doesn't. i know i have an x sitting in box and listed on craigslist
50. Whateverman (Posts: 3237; Member since: 17 May 2009)
Oh yeah it does! That display is beautiful, but that ain't enough to stop me from getting the Droid X. This is the best phone on the market right now IMO. The iP4 is bland at best, even after you jailbreak it. Good games though.
25. beillax (unregistered)
I heard that the verizon iPhone will come out in Feburary and a world iPhone will come out in the Summer. That's just what I have heard so far and I hope it happens.I'm with t-mobile now using a jailbroken iPhone and I could wait 5 months until the world one comes out. I's supposed to use a qualcomm band or something like that.
29. misteranderson (unregistered)
All the people that say it's not coming know just as much as the people that say it is coming, which is nothing really. You're all arguing for no reason. I'll sit back happily, use my BB, and just see what happens. Chill out folks.
32. schafga (unregistered)
I think it will be great if VZ gets the iPhone. In fact, I wish all carriers had it as you know who would benefit the most....us consumers. More competition = lower prices!!!!
33. Jojofromdabay (Posts: 39; Member since: 06 Apr 2010)
well for the record if apple launches a verizon iphone in january feb march april may june and so on it's not going to make a difference to me because my up grade is in september at verizon an yes im going to get the 1st iphone on verizon whether i spend 199 or 499 + an yes other people feel the same so yes it's going to make a huge impact in either month because we are tired of the bs and untrue reports.
44. theBankRobber (unregistered)
I can't believe people think Sprint will lose customers like that, Iphone didn't move people from Sprint this year, the Evo moved at&t customers to Sprint from the iPhone 4. If Verizon gets it then good for them, people will leave at&t for the Verizon iphone, if sprint customers wanted the iPhone they would have left, also on a note that they both still have higher plans then Sprint and offer less so why would they leave unless they are in a area where Verizon has the best coverage.
45. InspectorGadget80 (unregistered)
The only bad thing bout CDMA phones you can't used it world wide. GSM have a popular phone band withs. But to me as a AT&T Subscriber I could care less cause I really really need a good ANDROID DEVICE RIGHT NOW. cause I'm sick and tired of AT&T not getting all the good phones so I'm happy it's leaving AT&T now and plus my contract isn't even over. If it moves to Verizon it will still have more problems with their calls thanks to APPLE.
47. Esteban McReina (unregistered)
Iusacell Mexico is already selling de iPhone CDMA version, why Verizon no.
49. Rawrzellers (Posts: 224; Member since: 22 Aug 2010)
AT&T still won't take the hint that their network sucks ass.
51. TheEclectic (Posts: 77; Member since: 23 Sep 2009)
If I were to even consider switching from my Moto Droid it would only be to a phone with 4G, dual-core processor, and a resolution to match - if not exceed - the retina display.
54. spinelessrabbit (Posts: 35; Member since: 28 Dec 2010)
if verizon get the iphone good i cant wait to see all those people experience dropped calls when thier network gets slammed with all that traiifc verizon sucks
62. therygy (Posts: 94; Member since: 24 May 2010)
yea, that is a good point.
i bet Verizon will get over powered and just have to completely shut down, then AT&T will take over all their bands and become one huge carrier, then they willl suck up T-Mobile and Sprint (which will be easy because sprint SUCKSSS)
AT&T will then conquor the world.
56. spinelessrabbit (Posts: 35; Member since: 28 Dec 2010)
and att network has always been good it the crappy software thats developed by those overpaid idiodical apple It guys the os has never be efficient enough with att's network its the phone people for the real smartless ones
70. networkdood (Posts: 6330; Member since: 31 Mar 2010)
My cappy gets 4MPBS download and 1.6 upload....I am happy...with 3G
57. Youre All Retards (unregistered)
I work for ATT and you all have got to be the best group of morons ever.
FIRST OFF, the iPhone is GARBAGE and the only people that buy them are fanboys and people too pathetic to realize that ANY other smartphone offers the same features with better customer service options such as insurance, removeable batteries, no anttena issues, expandable memory and these type of basics.
Also, Verizon's iPhone WONT be LTE, but that wont be Verizon's fault. Apple will do the same thing they did with the ATT iphone. They will string everyone along for years, making you buy a new iPhone every year just to get minimal improvements. So you might get LTE on the 4th installment of Verizon's iPhone.
Apple is pathetic, the iPhone is ONLY for fanboys and retards too stupid to realize they have better options nowadays....So honestly who cares.
The iPhone has TERRIBLE reception and sound quality issues which make ATT look worse than they are so when Verizon gets the iPhone the complaints abotu their service will most likely sky rocket just like what happened with ATT. Next, the customer service complaints will come rolling into Verizon because they wont be allowed to insure or offer customer support to the iPhone and they will be sending the issues to Apple stores so that Apple can Activate new replacement iPhones then report them to the stock market as :NEW iOS Activations" while making the customer have to call ahead for an appointment thus making Verizons ratings drop.
I hope EVERY carrier gets the iPhone so people can find out how BAD the iPhone really is.