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Apple market share to hit a plateau in 2013, remain flat in next 5 years

Posted: , by Victor H.

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Apple market share to hit a plateau in 2013, remain flat in next 5 years
We have an instant negative reaction whenever we hear a 5-year forecast as the mobile industry is simply too hard to predict, let alone for such a long period of time. Some keep on trying, though, and this time it is ABI Research who join the bearish Apple sentiment and say the company’s market share will hit a plateau in 2013 and remain flat in the forecoming 5 years.

Apple’s market share will allegedly rise to 22% this year and all the way until 2018 it will remain relatively flat.

Could this happen in real life? Of course, but if we take a look at the dynamics in these past years the chances don’t look very high.

First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform. Samsung on the other hand is the opposite, a success story built on Nokia’s collapse with its share going from 8% to over 30% last year.

While we remain unconvinced about Apple’s future, it’s hard to overlook all the negative reports from close-to-Apple sources like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters. Devices like the iPad are selling less, and the iPhone is struggling against Android pretty much everywhere except for the States. What are your expectations and thoughts on Apple’s future?

source: eWeek

23 Comments
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posted on 18 Jan 2013, 08:34 20

1. Nathan_ingx (Posts: 3023; Member since: 07 Mar 2012)


Calm down people, calm down...it's just a plateau, it's not running downhill.
Oh wait, there always is downhill direction at the end of every plateau...:D

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 08:51

2. darkkjedii (Posts: 12375; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Ur on a roll today

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 09:06 8

4. Nathan_ingx (Posts: 3023; Member since: 07 Mar 2012)


How's that?
Don't be offended Apple people...i'm just making fun of the headline.
I don't trusts analysts, although i'm very tempted to, on this particular subject. :D
Anything could happen...nothing will ever be on a level for that long, it'll either go down or go up...

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 11:09

9. zuckerboy (banned) (Posts: 898; Member since: 22 Dec 2011)


yes every company will face downgrade like nokia ;)

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 08:52 5

3. speckledapple (Posts: 879; Member since: 29 Sep 2011)


Nothing lasts forever with any company. Not Google, Not Apple, and Not Microsoft. That said, Apple has encountered some serious competition in Android that has seen it erode its marketshare and has even started to push forth in its profits. It brings up the question of whether or not Apple will be able to maintain its current strategy for its products or alter to better handle its competition. The curreny environment is very familar to what happened with Apple and Microsoft in the pc market.

Apple is one heck of a strong company with revenue and innovation to continue to be strong. The question is whether the push from competitiors like Android and now Windows Phone and BB10 will continue to erode that strength.

The next five years will be very interesting on the software and hardware front. Great time to be a consumer.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 19:52 1

19. HDShatter (Posts: 1021; Member since: 17 Jan 2013)


Apple stock will crash, Google will then be the #1 company.

posted on 20 Jan 2013, 14:16

21. JeffdaBeat (unregistered)


But see, you have to follow that up with one day Google's stock will crash and someone else will be number one.

I have to agree with the article though. In something that changes as rapidly as mobile tech, you can't predict the next five years. Before the iPhone, no one knew Apple would trigger a downfall of RIM and Nokia. You would have been laughed at. Surprise, surprise. Five years ago, no one knew Apple wouldn't dominate the smart phone realm. If anyone mentioned Google's Android taking over, you would have been laughed at. Surprise, surprise. And here we are today with Samsung and Apple going head to head. We don't know what these companies have up their sleeves or what public perception will be. Big things can hurt a company (Apple Maps) or could do nothing at all. We just don't know and it's never a safe bet to say a company is going to plateau for the next five years.

Apple may very well come up with something that pushes them beyond anything anyone has seen. Or it could be HTC...or Motorola. That's why this s**t is so exciting...because you can't predict it.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 09:15 2

5. Lifengineer (Posts: 43; Member since: 15 Dec 2011)


I really laugh hard hard when I read such articles! These are really ridiculous!!!
I mean who even knows what happens "tomorrow"?! A big event, accident etc.. can take place in the next few days and change the whole world or the whole world of technology!!!
What came to my mind was nokia!!! Who even anticipated such downward spiral for nokia before iphone and android announcement?!? It was the king of cell phones!
The same thing can happen (and I'm sure will) with Apple or Google or Microsoft or any other company/individual in the world!!!

SO KNOCK IT OFF PEOPLE! NOBODY KNOWS IN 5min WHAT COULD HAPPEN!!!

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 09:19 1

6. mercorp (Posts: 974; Member since: 28 Jan 2012)


Serves them right.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 09:35 3

7. fanboy1974 (Posts: 1270; Member since: 12 Nov 2011)


Apple needs to totally revamp the OS to accept various screen sizes and resolutions. And get away from this one size fits all model. Basically copy Android.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 09:39 4

8. ilia1986 (unregistered)


"What are your expectations and thoughts on Apple’s future?"

http://us.cdn3.123rf.com/168nwm/smartphoto/smartphoto1011/smartphoto101100234/8244181-old-rotten-apple-isolated-on-white-background.jpg

As it should.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 11:57 2

10. andro. (Posts: 1971; Member since: 16 Sep 2011)


Ive said it for a while,we only a had a bit of an iphone 5 rush for the first 2 deliveries a week after launch,then the ifan salvating ended. The iphone 5 now never sells out and is being outsold by the s3 3:1 and by android in general probably 10:1. People have realised the exact same phone is being released time after time year after year,but with prices increasing

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 12:31 1

11. freebee269 (Posts: 528; Member since: 10 Aug 2012)


"First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform."

in june 2011 nokia share was at $1.68 per. right now it is at $4.45 per. where's that catastrophical fall? congrats on false info.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 12:57

12. phonemirer (Posts: 111; Member since: 07 Dec 2012)


yea, lumia 920 is saving them, i hope they release 922 w the flagship 2013 specs, it will trounce everything again :)

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 13:50

14. Luuthian (Posts: 218; Member since: 09 Sep 2011)


Actually the Lumia line barely did anything for them if you read the sales data. Apparently their feature phones in Europe are what made their sales jump a bit higher than expected this year.

Windows Phone has basically given them little to no favor. It's no wonder there's a small rumor they're looking into adapting Android.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 13:12

13. Aeires (unregistered)


I think it was more about how they were the top OEM but lost that spot. They will turn it around though, too much quality for them to close doors.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 17:48

16. jroc74 (Posts: 5192; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


According to stock market sites, quotes....it was at or around $6.66 in early June 2011..

Feb 2011 Nokia was at $10, around the time it was announced they joined up with MS. It was fallen since and has not gotten close to $10 yet. And has been on a steady decline until recently....

Maybe you meant June or July...2012....it was around $1.68 then. Its just now starting to go back up. From $10 to $1 = fell catastrophically...Nokia first WP wasnt in 2012...it was in 2011.

False info? How about researching and proofreading first...

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 14:00

15. Droiddoes (unregistered)


Sounds legit, I mean their "innovative" novelties hit a platue a couple years ago.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 17:56

17. jroc74 (Posts: 5192; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


"First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform. Samsung on the other hand is the opposite, a success story built on Nokia’s collapse with its share going from 8% to over 30% last year."

This might be more interesting.....I did not know this.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 19:31

18. jsdechavez (Posts: 708; Member since: 20 Jul 2012)


This is calm down investors. But will find out soon..of its inevitable downfall.. It will take some time though.

posted on 18 Jan 2013, 19:54

20. HDShatter (Posts: 1021; Member since: 17 Jan 2013)


Iphone 5s and ipad 5 only change will be an a6 that runs 1.5ghz instead of 1.3ghz, a better camera and nfc. These devices will cause it to crash even more.

posted on 22 Jan 2013, 04:18

22. amirata_xman (banned) (Posts: 33; Member since: 05 Jan 2013)


Serves them right.

posted on 22 Jan 2013, 04:18

23. amirata_xman (banned) (Posts: 33; Member since: 05 Jan 2013)


Serves them right.

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