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Analyst: Apple iPhone 4S demand points to "monster" release for Apple iPhone 5

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Analyst: Apple iPhone 4S demand points to
Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray is an analyst that we have come across quite often in relation to the Apple iPhone. And after doing all of those calculations that analysts do, checking the supply chain, visiting retailers, and consulting a Magic 8 Ball, Munster comes to the conclusion that 30 million units of the Apple iPhone were sold in the quarter ended in December. That is up 4 million from his previous forecast, and is about 4 million shy of what he believes Apple could have sold based on information from NPD Group.

But Munster's latest comments really weren't about the Apple iPhone 4S. Nope. What Mr. Munster is looking at is the Apple iPhone 5. Munster notes that in the September quarter, before the launch of the Apple iPhone 4S, 17 million copies of the device were sold. Following the release of what is basically the same phone in the iPhone 4S, 30 million units were sold showing a huge increase in demand for a model with only a few changes like the addition of a dual-core A5 processor, Siri, and an 8MP camera.

Munster told his clients that if Apple can sell 30 million copies of the iPhone in the December quarter without a new form factor, it would indicate that 94% of current Apple iPhone users plan on upgrading to a new model. As the analyst said, "This theme suggests iPhone 5, which we are expecting in Aug. with a new form factor, will be a monster upgrade."

Ok, so much for the future. Back to the past. And it is there that the analyst expects that the Apple iPhone will make up 48% of the Cupertino based firm's December quarter revenue. 21% of revenue will come from the Apple iPad, says Munster, which translates into 13.5 million units sold in the three month period. His checks of retailers during the holiday showed a 68% increase in demand for the tablet from 2010. He also expects a third-gen iPad to hit the market in April.

If his numbers are right, the December period will bring new quarterly records for the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad. The previous highwater marks were 20.34 million in the June 2011 quarter and 11.2 million in the September quarter, respectively. Apple will be releasing its December quarter figures after the market closes on January 24th.

source: AppleInsider

Estimates from Piper Jaffray for Apple's latest quarter

Estimates from Piper Jaffray for Apple's latest quarter

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posted on 11 Jan 2012, 19:08 14

1. -box- (Posts: 3991; Member since: 04 Jan 2012)

I anticipate/hope this is apple's best quarter ever... and that from henceforth, it'll all be downhill, especially with the push for WindowsPhone, and Android's market penetration, and lack of innovation. The next-gen phone would have to be packing something absolutely unheard of (which apple has never truly done, if we're honest) to remain competetive/innovative

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 20:35 7

7. tuminatr (Posts: 773; Member since: 23 Feb 2009)

I persoally dont think apple is going to do that well with it. I dont work for a carrier anymore but I cant tell you went I did how may people would come in dissapointed with there Iphone (honestly 2-3 people per day). Many people upgraded from droid to Iphone 4s and if they are a power user they miss the features and customization of android, Most of my friends that have a Iphone are the people who want a smart phone but dont want to learn. Iphone is a fad and its time is about to pass btw I am not saying the future is android or windows phone because I have no idea I am just saying apple is being seen for what it is. less is NOT more, less is less people

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 22:19 3

11. E.N. (Posts: 2610; Member since: 25 Jan 2009)

You said yourself that some people switch to iPhone from Android. If customization was as important to them as you're making it seem, then they would have switched back.

I the whole iPhone is for people who don't want to learn argument is so lame. There are plenty of people smarter than you that use iPhones. They are plenty of people who have come from more "complicated" OSes like The old windows mobile and blackberry OS.

Stop looking so deep into these things and accept the fact that not everyone wants the same phone as you. No need to look into the psychological or social reasons

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:06 4

14. tuminatr (Posts: 773; Member since: 23 Feb 2009)

People sign phone contracts and somehow don’t notice the 14 day return, and yes the store I worked at would see about 4-5 returns per week people bringing back there Iphone for a droid, windows phone, or blackberry. I would also see a surprising amount of people who would trade there Iphone for a droid through craigslist

Also from a account standpoint most account I pulled up that had a Iphone on them would use very little data. I usually saw around 250mb of data being used but the droid folks would usually average around 800mb with 3g or 3gb with 4g so they use their phone a lot more

my wife has a Iphone (heck I paid for the phone) frankly I have already had about 4 times that I have said to her well if you had a droid then you could ...

The only point I am trying to make is the iphone is not the Swiss army knife of phones it has faults and so do the other platforms. But consumers are starting to see the differences and NOT the marketing hype. BTW I am not the only person saying this I have read several other articles about the Iphone losing its cool factor and apple losing its cool factor. Do a Google search many of the computer mags have predicted this

And not wanting to learn is very valid, marketing says the Iphone is the easiest to use but is it truely?? personally I think its debateable.

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:30 1

18. E.N. (Posts: 2610; Member since: 25 Jan 2009)

well a lot of analyst reports say iPhone users are data hogs and that iPhones are the reason for most of the data caps, so I don't really buy the 250mb of data.

you should keep in mind that Apple is expecting record sales this quarter so it seems like more people are buying iPhones and not less. As long as Apple keeps their sales high like this December, "cool factor" (whatever the hell that means) is irrelevant.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 07:19 2

27. tuminatr (Posts: 773; Member since: 23 Feb 2009)

it is exactley the point, apple has been a fad, in fassion,cool whatever you want to call it and I for one say its coming to a end.

and yes apple does have the largest base of cult like followers so the phone will do well but its not the only game in town.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 08:42 2

30. E.N. (Posts: 2610; Member since: 25 Jan 2009)

Well if it's a fad, then it's one that's not going to end any time soon (which defeats the meaning). I don't know why Apple's success is so troubling to you and your cult. Isn't Android doing well enough for you guys? You talk about Apple users not realizing that iPhone is not the only game in town, but you're doing the same exact thing. I don't know, I just personally don't understand why it is so damn important what phone everyone else is using.

And all these talks about losing cool factor and theories of failing doesn't really make sense at this point. Why don't we just wait until they start failing before coming up with theories instead of year after year predicting failure. It's starting to seem like nothing more than pointless ranting and wishful thinking. And it doesn't matter what you THINK will or should happen. If the iPhone is a fad, like Android users have been saying for the last 4 years it should go away anytime soon but it really doesn't look like that's happening. Record sales man, stop being so blind.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 01:02

23. Lucas777 (Posts: 2137; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)

haha so was the ipad not something new to u? what about the macbook air? the original iphone? to the average consumer, there was nothing before these products making them "absolutely unheard of".. and the average consumer is the market basically

also why would apple suddenly decline after doing the best ever? i cud imagine leveling off, but a sudden decline? highly unlikely.. android just lost a huge amount of market share to ios, i believe they are now less then 5% apart (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/technology/blog/os-apple-android-market-share-20120110,0,3117091.story)… and anyways, apple doesnt need marketshare to succeed.. and i love windows phone, but i dont think apple will loose to windows phone, i think android will

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:17

33. Timoh (Posts: 5; Member since: 12 Jan 2012)

That was just a quarterly sales chart, not market share. That article, or whoever wrote it is very misleading/uninformed.

It also makes sense that it would be a strong quarter. Not only was it a new release, but a lot of people would have been eligible for upgrade on their two year plan.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:23

37. Timoh (Posts: 5; Member since: 12 Jan 2012)

And also, since I can't edit I'll add that the iOS5 upgrade slowed down all the other devices so much that a lot of people felt the need to upgrade based only on that.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 23:50

51. Lucas777 (Posts: 2137; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)

"that article" was on almost every tech site including this site.. and yes it does make sense

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 19:20 17

2. xtremesv (Posts: 297; Member since: 21 Oct 2011)

Not necessarily. We all know iphone users will buy everything Apple throw at them. Apple doesn't need to be that innovative anymore, the cult is formed.

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 20:20 5

5. devon613 (Posts: 114; Member since: 13 Oct 2011)

i agree

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 07:45 2

28. c.hack (Posts: 611; Member since: 09 Dec 2009)

True. iPhone users tend to stick with iPhone. Android users tend to return their phones at a very high rate and a lot switch to iPhone.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:21

34. iami67 (Posts: 318; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

Actually we have more problems with iphones and more iphone returns to switch to android.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:22 1

35. iami67 (Posts: 318; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

And more people get mad when they find out what more an android can do after they already brought there iphone because the comercials told them too.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:22 1

36. iami67 (Posts: 318; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

Why else does every Tv show make fun of them Even on the Simpsons they were making fun of apple and ishep by saying "wow i cant remember the last time I waited in a line this long for anything that was slightly better then the last except for that mephone. "

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:23 1

38. iami67 (Posts: 318; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

Sorry for all the post i was trying to figure out why phonearena was saying i was using vuglar words and wouldnt let me post this. Apperrently if you say Ishep and spell it correctly it is considered a bad word lol

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 16:41

45. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)

@iam. Now if only the official reports would support everything you said. Apparently, they don't :)

Notice how fandroids always use their girlfriends, their cousins, their parents? Because they can't find any reports to support their numbers, hahahahahaha.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 11:25 1

40. c.hack (Posts: 611; Member since: 09 Dec 2009)

Yes - Android can and does crash all the time
Yes - Android phones go obsolete in 3 months
Yes - Android phones are not actually open, they are full of crapware and have locked bootloaders
Yes - Android market is a ghetto with hundreds of viruses
Yes - Android is seriously fragmented - most Android devices don't even have access to the Android Market

Yes - most people get mad and switch to iPhone

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 12:02

42. chadrick0814 (Posts: 209; Member since: 23 Nov 2011)

No - iPhone doesn't even have 4g when everyone one else is on 4g lte
No - iPhone 4s isn't that different from iPhone 4
No - iPhone doesn't have Bluetooth file transferand can't even send a picture to someone next to you
No - iPhone doesn't have SD card expansion

Yes - ios is nothing more than an app launcher
Yes - iTunes is annoying compared to drag and drop and acts as a cock block
Yes - the 3.5 in screen is pathetic for gaming and movies
Yes - it shatters when if someone bumps into you on the sidewalk and you drop it

Viruses - don't download shady porn apps- use antivirus = NO VIRUSES
Locked bootloaders = see iPhone
Android marketplace = passing app store this year
Crashes all the time = you are not an android owner
Most people switch from android = see 51% marketshare today vs. 23% two years ago
Obsolete= it doesn't work after 3months?? A 2 year old android phone still has more features than a 2 day old iPhone.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 17:37

49. Johnny_Mnemonic (Posts: 240; Member since: 05 Oct 2011)

Yes - not so smart people buy iPhone

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 11:26

41. c.hack (Posts: 611; Member since: 09 Dec 2009)

You are funny, but ignorant. iPhone return rates are approximately 2%. Android return rates are 30-40%. Just do a Google search. Even an Android Troll should be able to do simple math.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 14:01 1

44. remixfa (Posts: 14255; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)


that 30-40% thing was thrown out a long time ago. It was from an article from a source that heard it from " a guy".
with sources like that, then those rumors of apple feeding crack to children must be true too.
Are you really that ignorant? No business would survive with a 30-40% return rate. wow.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 16:44

46. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)

@remix. Oh, we should believe fandroids numbers about their girlfriends and relatives then? How would that be different from "a guy"? lol.

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 19:46 4

3. alpinejason (Posts: 262; Member since: 06 Sep 2011)

i see windows overtaking apple and android

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:17 5

15. TKFox007 (Posts: 303; Member since: 02 Nov 2010)

I would laugh if that happens

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 20:20 3

4. shelley.bevacqua (Posts: 80; Member since: 27 Aug 2011)

Good pounts:-) i want all three os laiden phones! Especially when Windows specs beef up and apple has a 4 inch screen and finally when Android phones shrink in size:-)

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 20:22 1

6. shelley.bevacqua (Posts: 80; Member since: 27 Aug 2011)

Good points:-) very akward typing on my Samsung Galaxy 7 plus tablet.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 00:50

21. SlimSoulja86 (Posts: 660; Member since: 03 Nov 2011)

u just want attention

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 20:43 3

8. paulyyd (Posts: 338; Member since: 08 Jan 2011)

LOL you bros mad?

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 21:02 3

9. remixfa (Posts: 14255; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

apple will sell a ton of i5's.. if it keeps the rumor mill high from now till then. There is a lot of pent up 3g/3gs/4 owners that are upgrading to the 4s.. which means less potential sales of the i5. So they will need to slow down the i4s upgraders to keep i5 sales higher. Then again, the profit margins on the i4s are probably higher, so why would apple even care?
Most of apple's sales are not from new customers any more, they are from existing customers, so the i5 has to be a huge leap forward to retain those customers (even retaining 80-90% still spells big sales). My guess is iOS6 is going to be even more android like with widgets and android things.
With WP7 finally getting ready to turn up the heat, Android still growing like crazy AND maturing/becoming more uniform, and hell.. even peter's bada is still out there.. iOS has more competition than ever. If it doesnt turn up the heat.. a lot.. with the i5.. they could be in a good bit of trouble (market wise, money wise they will still be swimming in money)

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 22:03 4

10. gallitoking (Posts: 4718; Member since: 17 May 2011)

windows phone are a beast.. but in the real world.. that doesnt count.... so please stop saying windows will make a push... not today not tomorrow.. maybe 2015.... when when Android screen size will meet the tablet size and will no longer grow.... and when we will have enough cores in a phone... Android will no longer have spark.. then windows will get those people.. and Apple... will sit in their throne... telling android... "if you grow fast,,,,, u fade fast"...

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 22:22 5

12. remixfa (Posts: 14255; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)

like always, you make no sense

but hey, i like your last line. apple exploded on the scene.. and now they are stale fruit.

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:38 3

19. gallitoking (Posts: 4718; Member since: 17 May 2011)

yep u didnt understand... never said that... Android is growing too much... we havent really enjoyed dualcore when quadcore are out.... now screen are reaching 5 inches... they will eventually stop at one size.... becoming.... u guess it.. stale... making Android... absolete... Apple grows slowly but we are enjoying every bit of it......

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:27 1

39. iami67 (Posts: 318; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

Whose this we you are talking about that are enjoying it. Most customer who love apple hate how long apple takes to come out with a new device and whish they can match android. The only reason they dont switch is cause they are loyal and afraid of change. That last line is 9 out of ten iphones customers words not mine.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 16:51

48. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)

@iam. There are plenty of reports to prove the iphone's high user satisfaction ratings. So where do you base your statement from? From your girlfriend and relatives? Lol. If we iphone users are loyal and afraid of change, then we should have stuck with whatever our phones were before the iphone came out in 2007 :)

Fandroids are stupid :)

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:08

31. ZayZay (Posts: 571; Member since: 26 Feb 2011)

I..... Have..... To...... agree...... his...... typing..... sure...... sucks.......

Do you have a breathing problem when your typing?

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 18:06

50. gallitoking (Posts: 4718; Member since: 17 May 2011)

I am cutting down so whatever...

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 16:46

47. 530gemini (Posts: 2198; Member since: 09 Sep 2010)

@remix. Aren't you the one who said that the ip4s will not sell? Lol. And now you're making predictions again? Lol. Shameless :)

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 22:53 1

13. krazdjokr26 (unregistered)

These android nerds just don't get it... Everyone doesn't want a cell phone or use a cell phone for the same reasons you do!!!

There will always be iPhone windows android blackberry users... Chill out!!!

Competition is healthy, gives us all a choice... Don't be mad at me because I'm giving up android for iPhone and eventually iPhone for a windows phone...

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:23 2

16. Nickmfnjackson (Posts: 101; Member since: 21 Jan 2010)

Well duh, 4 inch screen, quad core. Once again, they will change everything. Maybe even discover expandable memory and removable batteries!!!

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:26

17. BattleBrat (Posts: 1458; Member since: 26 Oct 2011)

I have a RAZR, I'm paying our secretary $200 for her Verizon upgrade so I can purchase a top level iPhone 5 when it is released (for example, a 64gb Iphone 4s is $400 on contract, $800 off, I give her $200, get the phone for $400 and save $200)

AND THEN, I will use the iPhone 5 as a glorified iPod Touch, it will be on and running, but will have no service, the RAZR will remain my phone.

posted on 11 Jan 2012, 23:47 2

20. TKFox007 (Posts: 303; Member since: 02 Nov 2010)

The only people who are going to buy an iPhone are those who want it, which is mostly people who already own an iPhone. Apple may sell a lot of iPhones but they sell them to the same people who are people that want an iPhone because it's an iPhone and for no other reason.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 00:57 3

22. SlimSoulja86 (Posts: 660; Member since: 03 Nov 2011)

i agree with you, most ppl that will be lining up for days for an iphone, are ppl who have iphones already, and they'll be playing with their iphone while Q'ing. I have never seen anyone on those line without an iphone, honestly.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 01:11 3

24. phone_enthu (Posts: 6; Member since: 18 Oct 2011)

I switched to macbook 4 years back and never looked back. And honestly, I bought my iPhone 4S (my first smartphone) because how well the macbook has served me. I've played enough with the Galaxy line. But, when I bought my phone, all I cared about was how well my calendar is integrated with the different mail clients, how good the browser is, how well the onscreen keyboard works and how well my media is integrated.
On all these aspects, iPhone comes out top.
And no, customization is that important for me. I don't have time to "root" my smartphone and play around with custom ROMs. I would rather spend my "geek"ish moments at work, rather than tweaking my phone.
Honestly, how many Android users do this?
I want a phone that does well what it says it will.
So, I'm happy with my iPhone.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 10:11 1

32. krazdjokr26 (unregistered)

thank you thank you thank you!!! lol and for this reason is why i'm FINALLY letting android go for my very first iphone...

it was the ipad 2 that opened my eyes... awesome device...

media integration(biggest reason)

i've rooted/customized/widgetized my android phone to death... it gets old and a waste of time honestly... besides its not a big deal most android users dont really know and more than likely never will learn how to truly unlock their phones full potential like most of these android nerds brag about so much.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 03:18 2

25. darac (Posts: 2156; Member since: 17 Oct 2011)

I agree, iPhone 5 will probably break all records in sales. But until then apple will lose a lot of ground. Two quarters of decline before the 5 is released.
What I'm interested in is are numbers of the specific version of the iPhone.
3gs is still selling pretty crazy, and I'm sure that 4 also is on high demand since it's price dropped so much.
Here's my guess:
iPhone 3gs- 3-5 million sold
iPhone 4 - 5-10 million
iPhone 4s - 15-22 million

Overall, the best numbers but remember that Samsung ain't too shabby with its galaxy s line either.
Next galaxy phone should sell well over 10 million in the quarter before iPhone 5 rolls out.
Add to that this great new Sony phones and big guns HTC will bring out, and you have a lot of pressure on apple.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 03:52

26. silver0681 (Posts: 18; Member since: 07 Sep 2011)

Hmm removable battery last I checked android phones like the razor for example sure it won't be the last had no removable battery which moto claims to increase battery life so why would iPhone change that said battery style when android is now copying it to try and boost there batt life

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 08:22 1

29. ilia1986 (unregistered)

Please please please - Apple - for the love of GOD - make iOS6 have a MAJOR UI revamp.

posted on 12 Jan 2012, 13:30

43. Windsponge (Posts: 92; Member since: 01 Nov 2009)

Apple is happy to make the money they do. They don't need people who don't want to own one. I love mine. It is a lot different than the 4 I gave my wife, which by the way she loves too. We both quit using Droids. They freeze up to much and just to many problems

posted on 14 Jan 2012, 21:58

52. Abdul92 (Posts: 43; Member since: 23 Aug 2011)

People don't seem to understand that the 4S was never meant to bring in new users, but rather provide an upgrade for the 3GS users who were coming out of contract. Why release multiple phones if you can release one a year and allow your customers to be happy with that one before you go and release another one. That's the problem with the Android OS. There are just too many "new" devices coming out left and right. How can you have ground breaking sales if a "flagship" device never has time to sale before it's considered old.

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